Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

If this is a real bet, you two need to put something on the line. I suggest the loser has to use the winner's avatar for a week or two.

Heck, I'll make that bet with wxman57 if you don't, Ntxw. I think it will snow in Dallas before Easter gets here.

[Ntxw]

:uarrow:

If this is a real bet, you two need to put something on the line. I suggest the loser has to use the winner's avatar for a week or two.

Heck, I'll make that bet with wxman57 if you don't, Ntxw. I think it will snow in Dallas before Easter gets here.

Well it's sort of a bet. I told wxman57 that February would be DFW's snowiest month this winter. If it wasn't I would re-lable this the winter of his content, so essentially my avatar would say something of that sort. If there are children watching we do not endorse gambling

[dhweather]

Don't get too worried about the MJO guys, it's not going to fight the cold teleconnections. AO should go negative tomorrow and EPO negative to very negative next week. As I said earlier GFS is not the model of choice for ejection of systems, euro is. GFS has been a good indicator of long term pattern changes which it has already done I'll give it that.

MJO will re-flare over the IO (p2-3), that is the birthplace of most waves as mentioned in the tropical thread

Gross understatement.

[Portastorm]

Gotta love these 18z GFS runs which show snow for days over Texas.

If only ...

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh, this must warm the cockles of Wxman57's heart!

"The heavy snowfall that struck the city Monday quickly led to chaos on the roads. The Yandex Probki traffic monitoring service reached a full 10 points, and on Monday evening it issued the seldom-seen warning that "it's quicker to walk."

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/arti ... 75102.html

[Tireman4]

My goodness it was muggy in Houston. Sigh. Semi brutal run....

[wxman57]

Gotta love these 18z GFS runs which show snow for days over Texas.

If only ...

That snow in Texas 2 weeks from now looks like an excellent prediction by the 18Z GFS to me.

[BigB0882]

How can the 18z GFS be showing snow across much of Texas and Louisiana at the very end of the run even though the surface temps don't seem to support that at all, not even close.

[Ntxw]

How can the 18z GFS be showing snow across much of Texas and Louisiana at the very end of the run even though the surface temps don't seem to support that at all, not even close.

It's la la land and the resolution is coarse on the model, often whacky. It's putting near 540 thickness so the above air is colder than the surface which is another reason why.

[Ntxw]

It looks like the GFS is bending to the Euro for next week. First system this weekend moves from Colorado to the midwest and sends a cold front. Digging energy behind dives into the southern rockies and aims for the southern plains, very good set up for a winter storm. Lets see if the King keeps his persistence.

Parade of systems waiting behind that, STJ madness with plenty of northern jet energy to go along

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Before long instead of the long range models showing phantom snows weeks out, they might start having tropical systems showing up in the gulf

[Ntxw]

Good place to start

[Texas Snowman]

Bring it - rain, snow, cold or all of the above.

[orangeblood]

Great looking upper air pattern for wintry weather but will surface temps be cold enough??? The way this winter has been going, I've got a hard time believing it will be....

[HouTXmetro]

Will Houston be cold and wet NBA Allstar weekend? I'm praying for warm and dry.

[Ntxw]

Sooo...the GFS caved to the euro and then we have the euro switching to the old GFS of a sheared wave

What does PWC have to say about that? Well the head met was seen scurrying from his office late tonight holding two items ( ) only saying he cannot comment at this time and that they are working diligently and in talks with all parties.

[somethingfunny]

Every winter, the NWS offices around Texas work their butts off, and then they work whatever's left off by teaching dozens and dozens of Skywarn spotter classes that are free and open to the public. There's like 50 of them, see the full list of classes in the FWD area with their dates and locations here:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/skywarnsch.php?file=sptrsch

Even for experienced weather weenies like ourselves, a refresher course can surprise you with what you didn't realize you didn't know! Plus, you get to meet the meteorologists from the NWS and sometimes local TV mets too. The all-day Saturday courses (bolded on the list) are the best; upcoming classes in Belton, Garland, Denton, Colleyville, Montague, and Mansfield are still coming up over the next few weeks.

Go to one! Maybe I'll see some of you in Garland.

[somethingfunny]

As for the forecast, I forsee more of a Caribbean air as time goes on.



My use of the above photo in no way endorses alcohol abuse or a forecast analog of 1996.

[wxman57]

How can the 18z GFS be showing snow across much of Texas and Louisiana at the very end of the run even though the surface temps don't seem to support that at all, not even close.

Surface temperatures aren't as important as the temperatures aloft where the precip is forming. Yesterday's 18Z GFS had temps well below freezing just a very short distance above the surface, but temps in the mid 30s or so right AT the surface. The snow forms in the sub-freezing air aloft. It can snow with surface temperatures in the 40s and 50s, as long as the air above the surface is sub-freezing.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

All Joe can talk about are the Ensembles coming in super cold. The graphics he is showing looks brutal too. Anybody have those visuals? East Coast looks like a monster event is heading their way.