Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Wxman57 fell out of his chair looking at this map!

[weatherdude1108]

I have a picture of blooming Lantana, but I can't figure out how to post the pic. I am noticing some trees starting to bud and flowers already blooming in the Austin area. I never remember it starting this early in the 35+ years I have lived in South Central Texas. My yard landscape is even greening up and growing. It is February 6th, but with temps consistently in the 70s and 80s for three weeks, the plants "think" it is March or April and Winter is over. CRAZY.

[wxman57]

Wxman57 fell out of his chair looking at this map!

http://i45.tinypic.com/29punvn.gif

Good thing that the models don't have a clue beyond 3-4 days.

[wxman57]

I have a picture of blooming Lantana, but I can't figure out how to post the pic. I am noticing some trees starting to bud and flowers already blooming in the Austin area. I never remember it starting this early in the 35+ years I have lived in South Central Texas. My yard landscape is even greening up and growing. It is February 6th, but with temps consistently in the 70s and 80s for three weeks, the plants "think" it is March or April and Winter is over. CRAZY.

There are some tips for posting images in this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=111217

[gpsnowman]

Those lucky New Englanders. They are going to get slammed on Friday. As always, I asked my friend in southern New Hampshire to send me some blizzard pics so I can dream. Come on Feb, be nice to North Texas!!!!!!!!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Those lucky New Englanders. They are going to get slammed on Friday. As always, I asked my friend in southern New Hampshire to send me some blizzard pics so I can dream. Come on Feb, be nice to North Texas!!!!!!!!

Wabush, Newfoundland


They are begging for spring......or for some Texan to haul it away.

[Ntxw]

Interesting thing is the little rainstorm we had today in Texas is the system that merges with the polar jet and explode for the big nor'easter. It is a feature of the subtropical jet showing it is alive and well something we have not seen since 2009/2010.

[weatherdude1108]

Don't put those coats away just yet heatmisers!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
326 PM CST WED FEB 6 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...DRIER WESTERLY FLOW PUSHING MOST OF THE CONVECTION
WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE FAR EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THE LOSS
OF HEATING SHOULD END THE ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY BY
SUNSET. OTHERWISE THE DRYING ALOFT AND MOIST LOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW
FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. AFTER FOG LIFTS...THURSDAY WILL BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY...DRIER AND MILD AS A DRY LINE/COLD FRONT PUSH THRU THU
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

LONGER TERM...A LITTLE COOLER THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT CONTINUED
DRY AND MILD WEATHER AS A SLIGHT RIDGE BUILDS INTO TX FROM THE
WEST. FOR THE WEEKEND UNFORTUNATELY...A UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO
THE WEST COAST/GREAT BASIN REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO S TX. THEREFORE POPS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS SHORT WAVE RIPPLES INTERACT
WITH THE DEEPENING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WET PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
WEST OF TX. WILL SEE LESS DIURNAL TEMPERATURE VARIATION OVER THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO S CENTRAL TX...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN CWA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST OF TX LATE TUESDAY WITH
COLD DRIER AIR FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AND THU. COULD SEE A
LIGHT FREEZE IN THE HILL COUNTRY BY WED AND/OR THU MORNINGS.

[Cyclenall]

All Joe can talk about are the Ensembles coming in super cold. The graphics he is showing looks brutal too. Anybody have those visuals? East Coast looks like a monster event is heading their way.

I would like to see if Joe can ever do this: forecast/discuss warmth for the east coast and not much snow. I have a feeling this will be an impossible task . I remember JB tweeting and posting the same stuff during November of last year (for December). I also wouldn't consider 25 cm a "monster event" because for me personally 20 cm+ in a day is the threshold for what I call a winter storm.

Doesn't get much better than this graphic for cold and snow across the lower 48, monster block covering North American with a active subtropical jet.....

GFS ensemble mean for the 11-12 day range
http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2013 ... _nh_53.png

Oh it can get much more severe than that, I posted an image of that type weeks ago that was more impressive:

The next thing I was going to bring up that came from WeatherCentre was this image:

http://i50.tinypic.com/2andec.png

384 Hours, 4-5 day old image but this looks quite astonishing even though I don't know as much about these maps. There were 4 other images similar to this one but this had the tightest gradient IMO. What would this translate to if verified? The height anomaly is almost at the maximum negative the scale shows and the isobars are insanely tight. The Polar Vortex appears to be within the US.

It didn't pan out like this, it was just average temperatures I think.

Am I the only one here in this thread that hates winter?

No, your not the only one. I am with you .

Wabush, Newfoundland
http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/7802/comeonspringwabushnewfo.png

They are begging for spring......or for some Texan to haul it away.

Great photo, we don't get good stuff like that here of course . Maybe I would actually like winter if that occurred...oh wait no that's impossible .

[Ntxw]

After comparing the 12z/18z GFS and the other two globals, I think there's a decent chance a snowstorm will effect someone along the Red River valley just before Valentines day. The GFS has a very similar set up as the rest but it's doing its usual moisture too far north from the vorticity and away from the surface low which forms over the coast. Still like to see things a closer but being 5-7 days from it, you can't ask for a better trend.

[orangeblood]

All Joe can talk about are the Ensembles coming in super cold. The graphics he is showing looks brutal too. Anybody have those visuals? East Coast looks like a monster event is heading their way.

Doesn't get much better than this graphic for cold and snow across the lower 48, monster block covering North American with a active subtropical jet.....

GFS ensemble mean for the 11-12 day range
http://models.weatherbell.com/gefs/2013 ... _nh_53.png

Oh it can get much more severe than that, I posted an image of that type weeks ago that was more impressive:

The next thing I was going to bring up that came from WeatherCentre was this image:

http://i50.tinypic.com/2andec.png

384 Hours, 4-5 day old image but this looks quite astonishing even though I don't know as much about these maps. There were 4 other images similar to this one but this had the tightest gradient IMO. What would this translate to if verified? The height anomaly is almost at the maximum negative the scale shows and the isobars are insanely tight. The Polar Vortex appears to be within the US.

It didn't pan out like this, it was just average temperatures I think.

I'm not sure how to respond to this if you think one control run (384 hours out) versus an ensemble mean (300 hours out) is more impressive. Its been a long time since I've seen an image for an ensemble mean showing such a coast to coast winter weather set up. The one you posted effected only the northeastern 1/3rd of the country (your neighborhood) and didn't have much of an effect on us in the southern plains or 2/3rds of the country for that matter. This is a Texas winter weather thread not a Northeastern US thread.

[Ntxw]

Well if the 18z long range is worth a dime the hammer is coming down . As Portastorm puts it "Money in the Bank" run. More or less this hot weather will be a thing of the past temporarily soon. There will be some angry people knocking on Phil's burrow!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You fellows better hurry up and get your snow fix soon because a referendum was held up here and it was decided that, as far as we are concerned, winter can come to an end.

[Cyclenall]

I'm not sure how to respond to this if you think one control run (384 hours out) versus an ensemble mean (300 hours out) is more impressive. Its been a long time since I've seen an image for an ensemble mean showing such a coast to coast winter weather set up. The one you posted effected only the northeastern 1/3rd of the country (your neighborhood) and didn't have much of an effect on us in the southern plains or 2/3rds of the country for that matter. This is a Texas winter weather thread not a Northeastern US thread.

Its more severe in terms of negative height anomalies but that's all. Its more impressive only in that category.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wow! It just poured here harder than I have seen it in a while for about 15 min. Pretty nice little shower.

[Ntxw]

GFS got wetter but holds serve and keeps the snowstorm in the Panhandle and much of Oklahoma. Still disconnected between the 5h vort and the forming surface low on the coast

Edit: Man if the Euro and GFS are onto something medium to long range, Feb is going to be one heck of a month for us cold mongerers.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS got wetter but holds serve and keeps the snowstorm in the Panhandle and much of Oklahoma. Still disconnected between the 5h vort and the forming surface low on the coast

Edit: Man if the Euro and GFS are onto something medium to long range, Feb is going to be one heck of a month for us cold mongerers.

Yeah it looks pretty cold and stormy through much of February across Texas. If it comes close to verifying, north Texas could see at least one snow threat this month. The trends are definitely encouraging for cold mongerers.

[Kelarie]

After comparing the 12z/18z GFS and the other two globals, I think there's a decent chance a snowstorm will effect someone along the Red River valley just before Valentines day. The GFS has a very similar set up as the rest but it's doing its usual moisture too far north from the vorticity and away from the surface low which forms over the coast. Still like to see things a closer but being 5-7 days from it, you can't ask for a better trend.

Where along the Red River? I am in Texarkana, would we see it here? Thanks.

[Portastorm]

After comparing the 12z/18z GFS and the other two globals, I think there's a decent chance a snowstorm will effect someone along the Red River valley just before Valentines day. The GFS has a very similar set up as the rest but it's doing its usual moisture too far north from the vorticity and away from the surface low which forms over the coast. Still like to see things a closer but being 5-7 days from it, you can't ask for a better trend.

Where along the Red River? I am in Texarkana, would we see it here? Thanks.

Kelarie, yes you would. In fact I would say that the NE corner of Texas may stand the best chance of wintry precip. Stay tuned!

Meanwhile, the PWC mets are giddy at the sight of medium-range forecasts from all of the models. As Ntxw and South Texas Storms have already pointed out, the GFS, King Euro, and the Crazy Canadian all suggest a much colder, stormier pattern for Texas beginning this weekend. The much ballyhooed pattern change appears more and more certain.

[Kelarie]

After comparing the 12z/18z GFS and the other two globals, I think there's a decent chance a snowstorm will effect someone along the Red River valley just before Valentines day. The GFS has a very similar set up as the rest but it's doing its usual moisture too far north from the vorticity and away from the surface low which forms over the coast. Still like to see things a closer but being 5-7 days from it, you can't ask for a better trend.

Where along the Red River? I am in Texarkana, would we see it here? Thanks.

Kelarie, yes you would. In fact I would say that the NE corner of Texas may stand the best chance of wintry precip. Stay tuned!

Meanwhile, the PWC mets are giddy at the sight of medium-range forecasts from all of the models. As Ntxw and South Texas Storms have already pointed out, the GFS, King Euro, and the Crazy Canadian all suggest a much colder, stormier pattern for Texas beginning this weekend. The much ballyhooed pattern change appears more and more certain.

Wow I just scared the off with my fan gurl scream. I can't look at models at work, and just moved so no internet yet. Thanks Porta!! You guys a PWC work so hard for us!!