Texas Winter 2012-2013

[wxman57]

The 00Z Canadian backed away from any frozen precip threat in northeast TX next week. Euro is in line, indicating some snow for the TX panhandle and western OK, but that's all next week. 06Z GFS has Houston temps dipping into the upper 30s next Wed/Thu with highs in the 60s. Don't bank on any 18Z GFS 384hr forecast verifying anytime soon.

[dhweather]

CURSE YOU CAP!!!!!! IMHO, Here's what happens, a thin line of thunderstorms develops along the front, and we're lucky to get 1/4" of rain.
They haven't eluded to anything wintry either. We are probably going to be lucky to get a few nights at or below freezing for the rest of this "winter".

* This is not an official forecast by any means.


FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR MUCH OF THE CWA WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES. THE NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FROPA...WILL NOT LAST LONG...AS SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN SATURDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH DEEPER...BUT THE CORE OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO PASS TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY. THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...WILL
ALLOW AN INITIAL PACIFIC FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. INITIALLY...A
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL...BUT AS DEEP FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA...THE CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN. THE STORMS THEN WOULD TAP INTO STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. MOST OF THE CWA IS
UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATEST DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS A
PACIFIC FRONT RACES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE DIFFERS
SLIGHTLY ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT AND WILL KEEP POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES...IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIMEFRAME SUNDAY MORNING.

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks much better! Red River to I-20 potential, got to work on those surface temperatures though so lets see how we do closer to it

[orangeblood]

12z GFS looks much better! Red River to I-20 potential, got to work on those surface temperatures though so lets see how we do closer to it

I think next weekends winter storm potential looks even better, maybe even for those further south

[ouamber]

This "winter" has been the worst for us here in Oklahoma, especially NE OK. We have only seen flurries...not even a dusting...every potential storm has went north or south of us. This drought looks to worsen as we head into spring. I see nothing on the 12Z GFS to make me believe winter isn't done for us in the NE parts of Oklahoma. I'm officially waiving the white flag:(

[Ntxw]

12z GFS looks much better! Red River to I-20 potential, got to work on those surface temperatures though so lets see how we do closer to it

I think next weekends winter storm potential looks even better, maybe even for those further south

You are right! There are actually several legit threats each seemingly bigger than the one before it but I'm trying to stick one at time as to not confuse people . Very active and my bet to wxman of feb snow has some model support now

[Ntxw]

This "winter" has been the worst for us here in Oklahoma, especially NE OK. We have only seen flurries...not even a dusting...every potential storm has went north or south of us. This drought looks to worsen as we head into spring. I see nothing on the 12Z GFS to make me believe winter isn't done for us in the NE parts of Oklahoma. I'm officially waiving the white flag:(

We hear you . The pattern is just nasty for the ozarks (except middle Arkansas). Maybe one of the stronger fronts will give you guys some. After the mammoth snow in 2011 that region seems to be paying the price from mother nature :/

[wxman57]

12Z GFS - close, but no cigar?


Here's a meteogram for DFW made from the 12Z GFS. Mid 30s for the coldest next Wednesday:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Look at that pack in Canada. Could u guys imagine waking up to all that snow every morning. I remember the snow in dallas when they got a foot, i was freaking out. Kept saying it was like being at a ski resort for the weekend lol

[orangeblood]

Can't post the image but the MOTHERLOAD of Arctic air is pouring into the plains at the end of last night's European Control run, around the 20th of Feb.....

Edit: Also showing up on last night's CFSv2 run as well

[Ntxw]

Can't post the image but the MOTHERLOAD of Arctic air is pouring into the plains at the end of last night's European Control run, around the 20th of Feb.....

Edit: Also showing up on last night's CFSv2 run as well

Based on latest forecast of renewed mountain torque (+AAM) on GWO the 20th is the exact period the cycle begins again for blocking. We just finished one and the regime will appear next week. sOI is staying put at very negative levels.

Canadian, GFS, Euro all seemingly have agreed this morning the disturbance next Wednesday will track near I-20. All three models also show some kind of wintry precip along the Red River region with 540 thickness well south of I-20. We will need heavier precip and/or a stronger shortwave to aid in dynamic cooling just to be safe but being 5 days out still have lots of time to adjust.

[Portastorm]

Can't post the image but the MOTHERLOAD of Arctic air is pouring into the plains at the end of last night's European Control run, around the 20th of Feb.....

Edit: Also showing up on last night's CFSv2 run as well

Based on latest forecast of renewed mountain torque (+AAM) on GWO the 20th is the exact period the cycle begins again for blocking. We just finished one and the regime will appear next week. sOI is staying put at very negative levels.

Canadian, GFS, Euro all seemingly have agreed this morning the disturbance next Wednesday will track near I-20. All three models also show some kind of wintry precip along the Red River region with 540 thickness well south of I-20. We will need heavier precip and/or a stronger shortwave to aid in dynamic cooling just to be safe but being 5 days out still have lots of time to adjust.

Arctic Oscillation (AO) also forecasted by the ensemble means to be tanking around that time. It's all lining up.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also, the last two mornings, the squirrel on my roof has been pretty active. He did a good job predicting '09, and '10.



I know its a diff thread but it looks like another storm hits the NE again next week

[gboudx]

It's Lucy teeing up the proverbial football. "I'm gonna kick that ball to the moon this time."

[Ntxw]

I know its a diff thread but it looks like another storm hits the NE again next week

Yeah it's a very active pattern and each storm that threatens Texas (potential winter events) will be forced to the gulf and up the coast due to the forecasted -NAO/-EPO combo. They have a few more chances at nor'easters imo this month

[wxman57]

It's Lucy teeing up the proverbial football. "I'm gonna kick that ball to the moon this time."

She'll pull it away at the last second again. 12Z Euro does have a light freeze down to Dallas in 10 days.

[dhweather]

It's Lucy teeing up the proverbial football. "I'm gonna kick that ball to the moon this time."

She'll pull it away at the last second again. 12Z Euro does have a light freeze down to Dallas in 10 days.

Which is all I have left for expectations for Winter. Maybe 3-4 nights at or below freezing, that's it. <pulls football away yet again, ARRRRGH>

[orangeblood]

It's Lucy teeing up the proverbial football. "I'm gonna kick that ball to the moon this time."

She'll pull it away at the last second again. 12Z Euro does have a light freeze down to Dallas in 10 days.

Ohhhh, just wait......

[Texas Snowman]

Wise words from Yoda Cantore, the great winter weather forecaster from Planet Lone Star:

"Coming, the force is chilling and a great change is. The heat miser's power, frozen, will be. Visit the lone star state soon, snow will. Fly, soon the white will. Beckon, late season cold will. Bike riding, no more until spring, will be. Ready get fleece, firewood pile high, and for a great wailing and gnashing of teeth in Houston prepare. Rule soon, winter will."

[gboudx]

It's Lucy teeing up the proverbial football. "I'm gonna kick that ball to the moon this time."

She'll pull it away at the last second again. 12Z Euro does have a light freeze down to Dallas in 10 days.

Ohhhh, just wait......

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?