Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

^ Actually if you look closely it's wxman57 screaming for mercy when it all comes crashing down
And on the other end (blocks off the atlantic) is Portastorm ecstatic!

[wxman57]

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately? I'm thinking that once the next 2 weeks pass that we'll head into spring with 80 degrees plus by the end of February.

[Texas Snowman]

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately?

No, I don't think so...

[gboudx]

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately? I'm thinking that once the next 2 weeks pass that we'll head into spring with 80 degrees plus by the end of February.

The only terrible thing I can think about that prediction is the Spring pollen season kicking off early. Last year was terrible and I don't want to see a repeat of it. My eyes are itching just thinking about it.

[Texas Snowman]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zGFS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif

^ Actually if you look closely it's wxman57 screaming for mercy when it all comes crashing down
And on the other end (blocks off the atlantic) is Portastorm ecstatic!

Ooohhh! Look at all of the pretty colors!

[Tireman4]

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately? I'm thinking that once the next 2 weeks pass that we'll head into spring with 80 degrees plus by the end of February.

Ha ha, Wxman57 is gonna freeze. He ha he ha....

[somethingfunny]

[Texas Snowman]

Big Joe says the hounds of late winter are ready to howl!

"@BigJoeBastardi: There is no rest for the weary. The SOI crash, MJO in favored phases, neg ao/nao means winters worst is yet to come for most of nation."

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone, what is the difference between absolute and relative vorticity at 500mb? I thought someone said vorticity was a measure of the rotation of weather systems with respect to the Earth's rotation? Vort maxes are convergent and vort mins are divergent or something like that.

Anyway, I glanced at the 500mb absolute and relative vorticities on the GFS. It looked like a series of lows were moving over the state around February 12th to around mid month or so. Just not sure what I'm looking at(?). I usually concentrate on just the precipitation loop.

[Ntxw]

Anyone, what is the difference between absolute and relative vorticity at 500mb? I thought someone said vorticity was a measure of the rotation of weather systems with respect to the Earth's rotation? Vort maxes are convergent and vort mins are divergent or something like that.

Anyway, I glanced at the 500mb absolute and relative vorticities on the GFS. It looked like a series of lows were moving over the state around February 12th to around mid month or so. Just not sure what I'm looking at(?). I usually concentrate on just the precipitation loop.

Relative vorticity is the cyclonic (low) or anticyclonic (high) circulation of systems and can be dictated by winds. Absolute vorticity is the addition of the Earth's rotation (momentum) added to the relative vorticity.

[weatherdude1108]

Anyone, what is the difference between absolute and relative vorticity at 500mb? I thought someone said vorticity was a measure of the rotation of weather systems with respect to the Earth's rotation? Vort maxes are convergent and vort mins are divergent or something like that.

Anyway, I glanced at the 500mb absolute and relative vorticities on the GFS. It looked like a series of lows were moving over the state around February 12th to around mid month or so. Just not sure what I'm looking at(?). I usually concentrate on just the precipitation loop.

Relative vorticity is the cyclonic (low) or anticyclonic (high) circulation of systems and can be dictated by winds. Absolute vorticity is the addition of the Earth's rotation (momentum) added to the relative vorticity.

Cool! Thanks!

[Portastorm]

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately? I'm thinking that once the next 2 weeks pass that we'll head into spring with 80 degrees plus by the end of February.

Alright ... look ... let's put this all in some perspective. As I type this, it is 83 freakin' degrees outside in Austin!! In early February. That's just not right. It is unnatural. Wxman57, you don't want to upset the balance of nature do you? That is why we must have some actual, real winter before this month is over.

Surely you can give us coldplayahs a little wintry fun before the oven turns on again, can't you?!

[Texas Snowman]

That's an awfully big football right there. Surely you guys can take a swing and at least graze it before it's pulled away right?

Have I mentioned that I HATE cold weather lately? I'm thinking that once the next 2 weeks pass that we'll head into spring with 80 degrees plus by the end of February.

Alright ... look ... let's put this all in some perspective. As I type this, it is 83 freakin' degrees outside in Austin!! In early February. That's just not right. It is unnatural. Wxman57, you don't want to upset the balance of nature do you? That is why we must have some actual, real winter before this month is over.

Surely you can give us coldplayahs a little wintry fun before the oven turns on again, can't you?!

You want me to answer that? I'm pretty sure I know what he's going to say...

[Ntxw]

Even CPC is forced to accept the coast to coast chill. Punxsutawney Phil had no idea what he was up against...





In the span of a week we went from grasping at straws to a hope!

[northjaxpro]

We shall see folks if we can get a -AO/NAO later this month. It has been well above normal here in Florida all winter season, so much to the point that pollen has been bad here for nearly a month and the azaleas are already blooming. I have only measured six days of the mercury reaching 32 degrees or lower since Nov. 2012, and only one freeze since Dec. 24, 2012, which was just this past week.

Personally, I would like to see at least a week period of cold to scour out this pollen in our region of northern Florida. I will be interested to see the later model runs going into the weekend.

However, if the southern stream jet can stay active through the month, and we can get a solid polar air intrusion into the lower 48, the fun may begin for some of you out in the Lone Star State in the long term.

[GaryHughes]

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/00zGFS11-15day500mbHeightAnomalyNA.gif

^ Actually if you look closely it's wxman57 screaming for mercy when it all comes crashing down
And on the other end (blocks off the atlantic) is Portastorm ecstatic!

Ooohhh! Look at all of the pretty colors!

Love to see the cold and winter weather chances come back into the picture, Wxman57 is a very knowledgeable and respected Meteorologist, but all I have to say is you'll get your heat soon enough!

[Ntxw]

GFS isn't so savvy on a significant winter event next Wednesday. But as our friend orangeblood mentioned earlier today, an arctic blast may be looming the following weekend.

[South Texas Storms]

GFS isn't so savvy on a significant winter event next Wednesday. But as our friend orangeblood mentioned earlier today, an arctic blast may be looming the following weekend.

But the 0z Euro says not so fast GFS! It gives DFW some light snow as the upper disturbance passes overhead on Tuesday afternoon. This run may even have up to an inch of snow in that area.

[Ntxw]

But the 0z Euro says not so fast GFS! It gives DFW some light snow as the upper disturbance passes overhead on Tuesday afternoon. This run may even have up to an inch in that area.

I just saw that! Very encouraging. I also saw it agrees with the GFS on potential cold diving deep into Texas just like the GFS shortly after.

[Portastorm]

But the 0z Euro says not so fast GFS! It gives DFW some light snow as the upper disturbance passes overhead on Tuesday afternoon. This run may even have up to an inch in that area.

I just saw that! Very encouraging. I also saw it agrees with the GFS on potential cold diving deep into Texas just like the GFS shortly after.

Per the GFS, with a 1044mb high coming down the leeside of the Rockies from Montana (note: King Euro says it is a 1038mb high) and a trough to our west, that is a classic pattern/recipe for Texas winter storms. If you take a look back at some of our better snow/ice events that is the kind of pattern you will see.

Channeling my innner Emperor Palpatine: Everything is progressing as I have forseen.



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