Florida Weather

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I only measured less than a tenth of an inch at my locale. The beat goes on. I was really hoping we would get a decent rain to wash out the pollen, which has been the worst I have seen in recent years. This has been an incredibly warm and dry winter this season. The wildfire threat will be a huge problem going forward if we don't get some significant rain soon.

[gsytch]

1/10" BIG deal. It is getting very dry. The prospect for rain is dim for the next week as warm and dry wx settle in. The next cold front, perhaps in a week, may bring another chance and cooler wx (not cold). Unusual to have a big nor'easter and it not bring in COLD air!

[Patrick99]

This really is one of the warmest winters I've ever seen. Looking back, unbelievably, I have barely been able to give the AC a break and open up window/door. I hope we get at the very least some solid nights in the low 50s, but it's not looking likely. This winter has been like Summer Lite.

[TheStormExpert]

If its going to feel like summer outside then I wish it would be summer!

[Ntxw]

Cold PDO winters = Southeast Ridge! Drought is starting to develop and creep back to Florida, if not for Debbie putting denting rains I think the state would be in a harsh drought right now. Lets hope for a good tropical season!

[NDG]

This would be one heck of a potential freeze for at least Central FL if the Operational GFS is correct, the scary part is that it has been fairly persistent of dropping the 0 deg H85 Isotherm all the way down to the FL Keys by next Sunday.
Good thing that the operational GFS is all alone with this while its ensembles including the Euro and its ensembles not agreeing with it of such a sharp trough digging so far south & such cold temps making it towards FL.
Something to keep an on over the next couple of days.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was reading the Miami Weather discussion. They said a cold front hanging in the Straits then the real front over the weekend. At least most models agree on a strong front and rain from t
he first front. We need it.

A strong cold front is forecast by the GFS and European model (ecmwf) 00z models
to move through South Florida late Friday night into Saturday
morning. This front will bring in much colder air to the area from
the north for this upcoming weekend. The 1000-850 mb thickness
from the 00z GFS has dropped from yesterday to 1300dm around Lake
Okeechobee area to 1325dm over the Miami-Dade County area. The European model (ecmwf)
00z model is still showing the 1000-850 mb thickness to be around
1330dm around Lake Okeechobee to 1345dm over the Miami-Dade County. So
at this time...the GFS and European model (ecmwf) models are showing highs this
weekend to be around 70f near Lake Okeechobee area to the lower to
middle 70s Miami-Dade County. The same models are also showing lows
for late next weekend to be in the lower to middle 40s around Lake
Okeechobee area to lower to middle 50s along the southeastern areas
of South Florida. However...with the 1000-850 mb thickness so low,
the long range models could drop the highs and lows for next
weekend in later runs. So, will continue to monitor the latest
forecast from US for the temperatures next weekend

[Sanibel]

There's the cold February TWC was talking about.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Sooner or later they got to get it right.

[TheStormExpert]

There's the cold February TWC was talking about.

TWC actually changed their February forecast to Warmer than Average for the SE US a couple weeks ago which I think makes sense.

[Patrick99]

Mid 50s for South Florida? I'll definitely take it if it verifies. I'm sure that the southwest Atlantic ridge will assert itself again, but even if it's just a couple of mornings, I'll take it.

[gsytch]

I saw the models this AM forecasting some real cold air in, although there is some disagreement as to how much. We need the rain badly. My palms are dropping leaves and pieces, Bird of Paradise (tall nicolai) definitely showing signs of stress. I have not seen a lawn in MONTHS. Just brown. My 3 day Pres weekend! I don't want it cold. Anyway, we do not need a freeze or frost after all this warmth. It would be devastating. My only hope is that after the next few warm days, the GOM should hit 70F and that could help alleviate some of the cold. I'm also hoping the models back off just a little. A nip is ok. No freezes!

[Sanibel]

The trough pattern shift they predicted happened, even if briefly.


Shouldn't get out of the 50's here on Sunday which is a real shift. However they say it will snap back into the upper 70's by Tuesday.

[AdamFirst]

HPC is predicting a wet end of the week over South-Central Florida ahead of the cold blast.

THU-FRI...00Z MODELS AGREE THAT FRONT STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THU AND ONE OR MORE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES RIDE E/NE ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL ESP ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. HAVE
DRAWN THE HIGHEST POPS FRI (50 PERCENT) BUT MODELS DIFFER ON
TIMING SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING WHEN BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR (THU OR FRI). BUT BOTH INDICATE AN AREA OF
BENEFICIAL ONE HALF INCH RAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTH FL.

[AdamFirst]

12z ECWMF at 144 hours (this upcoming Sunday)


12z GFS also at 144 hours

[NDG]

Mind boggling every time the GFS and ECMWF swap solutions.
First it was the GFS showing -10 C at H85 making it down to Jax, now is the ECMWF showing that while the GFS turn on to warmer solutions during the last 24 hrs.
The good thing is that the ECMWF's ensemble means do not agree with its operational run.
So must likely Sunday and or Monday morning any freezing temps will be at the usual cold spots from Ocala and the Nature coast on northward, nothing new.

[gsytch]

Yes NDG I am seeing that. I think, depending on the wind, radiational cooling on Sun and Mon AM will be the threat, and Brooskville north will have the freeze/frost chance. Here in W Pasco, probably around 40F but that will still be a SHOCK to the system!

KEEP ME POSTED. I have lots of plants in my shadehouses and my new seedlings are outside (tomatoes, peppers, eggplants and the like) and I am still picking lots of tomatoes from last August's plantings. My orchids will be fine. My cuttings in the greenhouse will need the heater on. Then warming. Could this be the last threat? Hope so!

[gsytch]

What is the difference, other than the trough, on these forecasts? Are they two models? One shows less cold than the other, or less of a dip. Bit it is a dip.?? Thanks!

12z ECWMF at 144 hours (this upcoming Sunday)


12z GFS also at 144 hours

[AdamFirst]

What is the difference, other than the trough, on these forecasts? Are they two models? One shows less cold than the other, or less of a dip. Bit it is a dip.?? Thanks!

In those pictures the European (ECWMF) model shows a farther southern cold air intrusion to the Florida peninsula inviting the chance for a potential freeze in the northern sections of the state on Sunday morning.

The GFS isn't as cold.

[gsytch]

This is what my local forecast is, according to Fox13 Tampa Bay. A big difference, no? I see the models now. Thanks! That is what I thought.
ARGH...NO FREEZES!
http://content.foxtvmedia.com/wtvt/maps ... s/7day.jpg