Texas Winter 2012-2013
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Models are definitely still struggling with the upcoming pattern. Both 12z NAM and GFS appear to be slightly deeper than previous runs. Though temperature profiles are marginal, except for the Panhandle. GFS also looses the late week systems it's projected trough is slightly further east. We seem to be in that awkward medium-range phase, where models tend to loose sight of original projections, before getting grip with reality again in the short term.
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- Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
weatherguy425 wrote:Models are definitely still struggling with the upcoming pattern. Both 12z NAM and GFS appear to be slightly deeper than previous runs. Though temperature profiles are marginal, except for the Panhandle. GFS also looses the late week systems it's projected trough is slightly further east. We seem to be in that awkward medium-range phase, where models tend to loose sight of original projections, before getting grip with reality again in the short term.
Good post. Fully agree. I do think the odds for the early week system favor snowfall over southern Oklahoma more than the Red River or north Texas. However, as I said yesterday, it is still too early to rule that out. Nothing however has changed my mind that the last two weeks of February will feature numerous southern branch storm systems and occasional cold fronts (some which may be strong). Hard for me to believe that at least some of us won't see some snow or sleet out of this pattern.
Meanwhile, it is a raw day in Austin. Temps in the low to mid 50s, a steady southeast wind, and drizzle. No bike riding for wxman57 in Austin today! Dunno about Houston.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Portastorm wrote:weatherguy425 wrote:Models are definitely still struggling with the upcoming pattern. Both 12z NAM and GFS appear to be slightly deeper than previous runs. Though temperature profiles are marginal, except for the Panhandle. GFS also looses the late week systems it's projected trough is slightly further east. We seem to be in that awkward medium-range phase, where models tend to loose sight of original projections, before getting grip with reality again in the short term.
Good post. Fully agree. I do think the odds for the early week system favor snowfall over southern Oklahoma more than the Red River or north Texas. However, as I said yesterday, it is still too early to rule that out. Nothing however has changed my mind that the last two weeks of February will feature numerous southern branch storm systems and occasional cold fronts (some which may be strong). Hard for me to believe that at least some of us won't see some snow or sleet out of this pattern.
Meanwhile, it is a raw day in Austin. Temps in the low to mid 50s, a steady southeast wind, and drizzle. No bike riding for wxman57 in Austin today! Dunno about Houston.
Something else that caught my eye, while models may not be taking into account the dry lower levels; it appears that someone could get a decent snowfall out of this, whoever that may be. Out here in the desert that is west Texas, I'm expecting at least one snowfall before the month is over. Though, I could easily have two before next weekened!
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Portastorm wrote:weatherguy425 wrote:Models are definitely still struggling with the upcoming pattern. Both 12z NAM and GFS appear to be slightly deeper than previous runs. Though temperature profiles are marginal, except for the Panhandle. GFS also looses the late week systems it's projected trough is slightly further east. We seem to be in that awkward medium-range phase, where models tend to loose sight of original projections, before getting grip with reality again in the short term.
Good post. Fully agree. I do think the odds for the early week system favor snowfall over southern Oklahoma more than the Red River or north Texas. However, as I said yesterday, it is still too early to rule that out. Nothing however has changed my mind that the last two weeks of February will feature numerous southern branch storm systems and occasional cold fronts (some which may be strong). Hard for me to believe that at least some of us won't see some snow or sleet out of this pattern.
Meanwhile, it is a raw day in Austin. Temps in the low to mid 50s, a steady southeast wind, and drizzle. No bike riding for wxman57 in Austin today! Dunno about Houston.
Heading out on our bikes shortly for a ride to Ruggle's cafe for lunch. 25 miles round trip. A bit cold (66 deg) but we'll dress warmly.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Interesting to note that the ECMWF has also trended a little slower/deeper with next week's system. Even closes it off for a time over New Mexico before opening it back up, once in the panhandle. Still a little too far north for my personal enjoyment; but we'll see.


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^ It does still like the Panhandle and maybe flurries in Oklahoma. At least it's back in play for the weekend cold blast and a Texas snowstorm potential, not dry cold like the GFS.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Curious to see what ensemble members show. Just 50 miles or so and I could be blessed with few inches, which would also have implications for y'all down I20 

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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Meanwhile, it is a raw day in Austin. Temps in the low to mid 50s, a steady southeast wind, and drizzle. No bike riding for wxman57 in Austin today! Dunno about Houston.[/quote]
Heading out on our bikes shortly for a ride to Ruggle's cafe for lunch. 25 miles round trip. A bit cold (66 deg) but we'll dress warmly.[/quote]
Lovely day here. 64 and holding. Love it. After yesterday's brutal 7 miler ( I am not sure why, it was 69) I am looking forward to a coolish run today at 5 pm.
Heading out on our bikes shortly for a ride to Ruggle's cafe for lunch. 25 miles round trip. A bit cold (66 deg) but we'll dress warmly.[/quote]
Lovely day here. 64 and holding. Love it. After yesterday's brutal 7 miler ( I am not sure why, it was 69) I am looking forward to a coolish run today at 5 pm.

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- CaptinCrunch
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Re:
CaptinCrunch wrote:Temps are much cooler than forecasted and I expect they will continue to be cooler than forecasted. Pattern has changed and I would expect models will still struggle with the change. The next two weeks fun to say the least.
What's with that? NWS forecast low tonight is 57, yet it has been hovering in the upper 40s for most of the afternoon/evening, and dew points are in the mid 40s.
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I don't like the progressive nature of the models the past few runs, what a plague! Hopefully it's just a blip.
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Heads up to the I-35 corridor, severe thunderstorm line is coming into the DFW area. Austin area is under a tornado watch and there are super-cells just to your west with hooks on them, stay alert tonight. Line will likely stay intact and effect southeast Texas by daybreak.




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- GaryHughes
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Just received the heaviest rainfall I have seen in a very long time! Over 2.5" in less than one hour.
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- Portastorm
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Ntxw wrote:I don't like the progressive nature of the models the past few runs, what a plague! Hopefully it's just a blip.
I am equally disturbed by the change in the operational model runs over the last 36 hours. Five days ago, the last half of February looked like a winter bonanza for all of us. Now ... seasonal temps at best with minimal winter storm chances for anywhere from I-20 south in Texas. I know that recon is being performed in the Pacific with some WSR tasking and maybe that will change things. OR ... that already did change things and this is what we're going to get! I'm very unclear as to why the models have transitioned to a less amplified, more progressive nature. The only thing I can think of is that this has been the pattern this winter with nothing locking in for very long. Cosgrove mentions this in his latest newsletter. Sadly, perhaps he is right. We shall see.
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Re: Re:
Portastorm wrote:Ntxw wrote:I don't like the progressive nature of the models the past few runs, what a plague! Hopefully it's just a blip.
I am equally disturbed by the change in the operational model runs over the last 36 hours. Five days ago, the last half of February looked like a winter bonanza for all of us. Now ... seasonal temps at best with minimal winter storm chances for anywhere from I-20 south in Texas. I know that recon is being performed in the Pacific with some WSR tasking and maybe that will change things. OR ... that already did change things and this is what we're going to get! I'm very unclear as to why the models have transitioned to a less amplified, more progressive nature. The only thing I can think of is that this has been the pattern this winter with nothing locking in for very long. Cosgrove mentions this in his latest newsletter. Sadly, perhaps he is right. We shall see.
It's probably the MJO causing them to do that Portastorm. When it stalls the models get progressive and look so so. Good thing it's picking up pace again, still need to get into p2-3 for the iceboxes. There are still considerable threats of both wintry aspects, just I would like to see things slow down a bit and allow these systems to dig and cold to push.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow changing to all snow on Tuesday for my area, then a 70% chance of snow for Tuesday evening until around 7. Keeping fingers crossed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Yukon Cornelius wrote:NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow changing to all snow on Tuesday for my area, then a 70% chance of snow for Tuesday evening until around 7. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yukon, I definitely like YOUR chances of seeing some wintry precip from this coming week's system. You'll be underneath the upper level trough and in enough cold air to create some "excitement."
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
It's the block over the top of North America that the models were forecasting and now they've gone away from it....AO completely flipped to positive over the longer term. The North Pacific ridge isn't making any head way into Alaska and so its not allowing heights to build enough in western Canada. The AO and EPO aren't strong enough to overwhelm this pattern like we originally thought and the MJO looks like its high tailing it through phases 2,3.....no bueno!!
But one thing that does look promising is the extremely wet pattern coming up over the next 2-3 weeks for the southern plains
But one thing that does look promising is the extremely wet pattern coming up over the next 2-3 weeks for the southern plains
Last edited by orangeblood on Sun Feb 10, 2013 1:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013
Portastorm wrote:Yukon Cornelius wrote:NOAA is forecasting a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow changing to all snow on Tuesday for my area, then a 70% chance of snow for Tuesday evening until around 7. Keeping fingers crossed.
Yukon, I definitely like YOUR chances of seeing some wintry precip from this coming week's system. You'll be underneath the upper level trough and in enough cold air to create some "excitement."
I've definitely got the excitement for it! I've been watching NOAA's forecast for Tuesday for about a week now. It's been interesting watching it bounce back and forth between snow chances and no snow chances. Historically for this area when their forecast does that and then a couple of days before hand keeps a pretty good chance we usually get some decent snowfall. It will be nice to see some flakes and hopefully some accumulations with all this unseasonably warm weather we have been having lately.
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