2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[cycloneye]

A second death related to the EF-3 Adairsville Tornado.

http://www.daily-tribune.com/view/full_ ... ethirdleft

A second person may have died from injuries received in the Jan. 30 tornado in Adairsville.
A reader told The Daily Tribune the woman died overnight Sunday. Media reports are that Brenda Mulkey died Monday morning.
Read more: The Daily Tribune News - Woman injured in tornado dies cause of death unknown

[cycloneye]

The number of Tornadoes so far in the 2013 U.S Severe Season that have been confirmed has risen to 60.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the probability for a big outbreak early next week is not in the cards.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CST WED FEB 06 2013

VALID 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
HIGHEST SEVERE PROBABILITY /AROUND 15 PERCENT/ IS EVIDENT FROM PARTS
OF THE MID-SOUTH TO THE WRN GULF COAST ON D5/SUN. DECREASING
PREDICTABILITY THEREAFTER RENDERS LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR D6-8.

GFS/MAJORITY OF GEFS MEMBERS HAVE FINALLY FALLEN INTO LINE WITH
PRIOR ECMWF/CMC DEPICTIONS OF A LEAD SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING
FROM THE WRN CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ONTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY
D5. THIS RENDERS INCREASED CONFIDENCE OVER THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...BUT BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONTINUES WITH LINGERING
RUN-TO-RUN INCONSISTENCIES IN THE DETAILED TIMING/INTENSITY/TRACK OF
THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

RETURN FLOW ALONG THE WRN GULF WILL COMMENCE FRI NIGHT WHICH
COMBINED WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS BY SAT NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD
SEEMINGLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING D5 AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS TOWARDS THE LOWER MS VALLEY/WRN GULF
COAST. SUCH ABUNDANT RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE NEWD
EXTENT OF MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. IN ADDITION...THE CONSENSUS
TRACK OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS
VALLEY WOULD REMAIN WELL-DIVORCED FROM THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE. AS
SUCH...ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ON D5...BUT
PROBABILITIES DO NOT APPEAR A0A 30 PERCENT ATTM.

..GRAMS.. 02/06/2013

[cycloneye]

There is a slight risk for day 3 in Central Texas.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CST THU FEB 07 2013

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WRN CONUS WILL EJECT NEWD AND LIKELY
BECOME CENTERED OVER NEB BY 12Z/SUN. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ON
SAT IN ERN CO WITH THIS CYCLONE TRACKING NEWD TOWARDS CNTRL NEB. A
N/S-ORIENTED PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD IN THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DEPICTING THE FRONT ACROSS CNTRL
OK TO THE ERN EDWARDS PLATEAU OF TX AT 12Z/SUN. A WARM FRONT WILL
ADVANCE NWD FROM THE WRN GULF COAST AND SHOULD ROUGHLY INTERSECT THE
COLD FRONT NEAR THE RED RIVER AND EXTEND SEWD TOWARDS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY.

...SRN PLAINS...
ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD BENEATH A STOUT
EML. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER WITH THE DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE WRN GULF WITH THE ECMWF/GFS UNUSUALLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE NAM AND ESPECIALLY THE SREF MEAN. THIS DOES
BREED UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NRN EXTENT OF SEVERE POTENTIAL SAT NIGHT.
WITH SUCH A PRONOUNCED CAPPING INVERSION AND APPRECIABLE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS /ALBEIT WEAK IN TX/ NOT OCCURRING UNTIL EARLY
SUN...PRIMARY DRIVER OF SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE THE
PACIFIC COLD FRONT INTERSECTING THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL TX SAT
NIGHT. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER
SWLYS WOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL WITH INITIAL UPDRAFTS.
ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY FORM INTO ONE OR MORE LINE SEGMENTS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL. SETUP APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK DELINEATION.

..GRAMS.. 02/07/2013

[cycloneye]

Any of you think that the 2013 U.S severe season will be very active if you look how the winter pattern has evolved?

[Hurricane Andrew]

^Although I love tracking severe wx, I don't know how to long range track it. I heard someone mention that the LRC suggests a big event around April 1.

[Bunkertor]

...

[cycloneye]

Video of Tornado in Hattisberg MS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... PDvBMp18us

[Bunkertor]

Obv. was that one.

[Bunkertor]

Video of Tornado in Hattisberg MS.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... PDvBMp18us

Thanks Cycl

Comments

ReallyRick vor 10 Minuten
Do NOT allow Fox News to air it! Wait for other channels to offer cash!
---
AaronEstman vor 4 Minuten
Don't let Fox News air it. Wait until another network offers you cash. And don't take anything under $500-$1k.

[cycloneye]

Damage caused by the Hattisburg Tornado. Looks like damage caused by an EF-2 or3 type.

[cycloneye]

This is a tornado chaser video of the Hattisburg Tornado. Impressive to say the least.

http://www.facebook.com/video/video.php?v=4887098026568

[Ntxw]

What an amazing video. This is just ridiculous how the gulf south is the new tornado alley <- understatement and it seems to be anytime of the year.

[cycloneye]

Here are the preliminary stats for the Febuary 10 event. Waiting on the classification of the Hattisburg Tornado.

[PTPatrick]

That was a close call for my brother. E lives in oak grove right near the school in the pic. Their house was untouched but they lost power. They were actually coming into the outskirts of town up 49N when it hit but they didn't know what happened until it had already gone by. They were lucky they were not 15 minutes faster!

[cycloneye]

Two more photos of the extensive damage caused by the Hattisburg Tornado. Waiting on the classification by SPC on how strong it was. @NWSJacksonMS We hope to have some preliminary details later this afternoon.

[cycloneye]

Here a Facebook message from the Jackson MS NWS about the preliminary data of the Hattisburg Tornado.

Here is some preliminary survey information from our survey teams. The tornado was at least EF-3. Maximum winds in the West Hattiesburg/Oak Grove area of Lamar County were 145 mph and in the Hattiesburg/Forrest County area 140 mph. Surveys are still ongoing, and more information will be released as it becomes available.

[cycloneye]

Here is the statement with all the details from the Jackson NWS about the Hattisburg Tornado. The good news is that no fatalities occured but there were many people injured. I hope that they have a speedy recovery.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR LAMAR AND FORREST COUNTY TORNADO EVENT
INCLUDING THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG...

.HATTIESBURG TORNADO...

RATING: EF-3 (WEST HATTIESBURG AND HATTIESBURG)
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 145 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: NA MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: NA YARDS
FATALITIES: 0
INJURIES: 82

START DATE: FEB 10 2013
START TIME: NA
START LOCATION: NA
START LAT/LON: NA

END DATE: NA
END TIME: NA
END LOCATION: NA
END_LAT/LON: NA

SURVEY_SUMMARY:
PRELIMINARY RESULTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CITY OF HATTIESBURG
ALONG WITH LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST HATTIESBURG AND THE OAK GROVE
AREA INDICATE A TORNADO WITH INTENSITY OF AT LEAST EF3 (145 MPH).
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IS DOCUMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA SO FAR. AT
THIS TIME...NO FATALITIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED. AS FAR AS INJURIES
82 PEOPLE WERE TAKEN TO AREA HOSPITALS...63 IN FORREST COUNTY
AND 19 IN LAMAR COUNTY. THERE ARE LIKELY MANY MORE MINOR INJURIES
THAT HAVE NOT BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT THIS TIME. MORE UPDATES WILL
BE PROVIDED AS TEAMS REPORT BACK.

EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES
TORNADOES INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH

NOTE:
THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO
CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENTS AND PUBLICATION IN
NWS STORM DATA.

$$

AG/SW/JC/DB/CME

[Texas Snowman]

Wonder how long-tracked this storm was?

Also, it looked like a bad rotation signature went over Millry, Ala. last night.

Any word on damage in that area?

[cycloneye]

Hattisburg Tornado upgraded to EF-4

More analysis was made late this afternoon and now the Jackson NWS upgraded from EF-3 to EF-4.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jan/?n=2013_02_10_11_tor