Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

I don't like the progressive nature of the models the past few runs, what a plague! Hopefully it's just a blip.

I am equally disturbed by the change in the operational model runs over the last 36 hours. Five days ago, the last half of February looked like a winter bonanza for all of us. Now ... seasonal temps at best with minimal winter storm chances for anywhere from I-20 south in Texas. I know that recon is being performed in the Pacific with some WSR tasking and maybe that will change things. OR ... that already did change things and this is what we're going to get! I'm very unclear as to why the models have transitioned to a less amplified, more progressive nature. The only thing I can think of is that this has been the pattern this winter with nothing locking in for very long. Cosgrove mentions this in his latest newsletter. Sadly, perhaps he is right. We shall see.

It appears the models are struggling mightily right now. Dramatic differences in this morning's 8-10 day forecast from both the Euro and GFS. They even didn't grasp the extent of the rainfall (let alone severe storms in south Texas) overnight. Guess I need to go back to the old mental standby of "any model solution past 4 days cannot be believed."

[dhweather]

Guess I need to go back to the old mental standby of "any model solution past 4 days cannot be believed."

It gives you much less heartbreak for:

Any kind of precip chances
Any kind of significant cold weather


Just keep telling yourself warm and dry, that is the unfortunate reality we live in.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Should be an interested couple of days up here along the river. Tonight we have a 60% chance of rain turning into an 80% chance of rain and snow showers tomorrow and then a 20% of snow tomorrow night. I guess if it tracks a little farther south we could be in for some more snow or accumulations. It will be cool to see if any changes happen today in the forecast.

[RedRiverRefuge]

Lovely shade of blue. 5 days out. To far to trust but one can hope

[wxman57]

We have ice on the ground here in Houston this morning. That's enough for me this winter. Time for spring!

[vbhoutex]

We have ice on the ground here in Houston this morning. That's enough for me this winter. Time for spring!

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos- ... 1506_n.jpg

I see you got to take part in the hail storm. Didn't get squat here. 0.09" of rain overnight. Still needing the rain.

[wxman57]

We have ice on the ground here in Houston this morning. That's enough for me this winter. Time for spring!

https://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos- ... 1506_n.jpg

I see you got to take part in the hail storm. Didn't get squat here. 0.09" of rain overnight. Still needing the rain.

The hail shot was taken by one of our employees, not me. It was around Bellaire & the west loop. Looks like another bad week for biking in Houston. Too cold next weekend. I do need a low of 34F at IAH for that part of our February forecast contest (coldest temp in the month).

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah the rain came through SL which had hail in it, although i did not hear any hail. Rain was very heavy.

[aggiecutter]

It just loves to snow in Texarkana. I'm surprised this hasn't been posted. From the 12z GFS:

[Kelarie]

It just loves to snow in Texarkana. I'm surprised this hasn't been posted. From the 12z GFS:

The NWS has mentioned a couple of shots of the wintery stuff this week. We shall see.

[wxman57]

No snow for North Texas (Dallas area) on the 12Z Euro. Down to about Lubbock to OKC tonight/early tomorrow and down to southern Kansas this weekend. 12Z GFS has Dallas-Ft. Worth at the southern edge of light snow on Friday. I'd say a slight chance of a few flurries in Dallas on Friday, but a good chance of none.

[Texas Snowman]

No snow for North Texas (Dallas area) on the 12Z Euro. Down to about Lubbock to OKC tonight/early tomorrow and down to southern Kansas this weekend. 12Z GFS has Dallas-Ft. Worth at the southern edge of light snow on Friday. I'd say a slight chance of a few flurries in Dallas on Friday, but a good chance of none.

No offense, but I don't know if I have ever enjoyed reading one of your posts.

He loves to crush the snow globe, doesn't he?

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
332 PM CST MON FEB 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
DURING THIS FORECAST. A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH ITS
BASE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS AREAS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
AMPLIFICATION OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY THAT PREVAILS INTO SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF NORTH TEXAS...WEAK UPPER
RIDGING WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AROUND THE BIG BEND REGION WILL KEEP
NORTHEAST TO EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW GOING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST APPROACHES
OVERNIGHT...THE SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST WITH GOOD
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. THUNDER WILL BE ISOLATED DURING THIS EVENT BUT
THERE/S A POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS TO DEVELOP UNDER
THE COLD CORE ALOFT AND MOVE EAST ALONG THE I-20/I-30 CORRIDOR ON
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING
THE DAY...THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES WILL BECOME DRY-SLOTTED AND THE
RAIN WILL END FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. A LARGE SNOW STORM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY BUT WE CURRENTLY FEEL THAT IT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE RED
RIVER. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY COOLER ATMOSPHERIC THERMAL PROFILE
COULD RESULT IN SOME OF OUR RED RIVER COUNTIES SEEING A LITTLE
RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS TUESDAY EVENING.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS...THUS DRY
WEATHER WITH COOL NIGHT AND MILD DAYS.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN TOWARD THE STATE ON THURSDAY WITH THE
ECMWF PUSHING IT TOWARD THE CWA NEARLY 24 HOURS BEFORE THE GFS
DOES. SINCE THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...THERE IS MORE TIME FOR SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER WEST
TEXAS WHICH THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION AND BRINGS UP TO 1
INCH OF SNOWFALL TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND OUR NORTHEAST
COUNTIES ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF NEVER DEVELOPS THIS SURFACE SYSTEM
AND...AS A RESULT...NEVER DEVELOPS MUCH PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION
DUE TO COLD...DRY AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPENING OF THE COLD AIR. ALTHOUGH
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SNOW DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...OUR CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION REMAINS LOW AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SYSTEMS
DEVELOPMENT TO DETERMINE WHICH SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY.

[Ntxw]

Don't let the heat miser deter you! The fact that it is even snowing anywhere in the southern plains shows the pattern has changed from the doldrums. It is still an active split flow pattern even with marginal temperatures, it only takes one for the home-run and a surprise moisture feed from the tropical Pacific. PWC is working hard to limit his days of quality biking weather and perhaps a wet March!

[Portastorm]

I sure do love these 18z GFS runs! Today, it brings the snow/rain line quite close to the Portastorm Weather Center for this weekend's system. Too bad it's beyond four days so I can't believe it.

[Ntxw]

I sure do love these 18z GFS runs! Today, it brings the snow/rain line quite close to the Portastorm Weather Center for this weekend's system. Too bad it's beyond four days so I can't believe it.

JB did mention Texas specifically today in his video blog that he believes snow will fly as far south as I-10 in Texas and be on the ground in I-20. We'll see if that prediction becomes real with the polar/arctic front come this weekend.

[aggiecutter]

The 18z run of the GFS moves the snowfall further south on Friday night-Saturday morning:

[vbhoutex]

I sure do love these 18z GFS runs! Today, it brings the snow/rain line quite close to the Portastorm Weather Center for this weekend's system. Too bad it's beyond four days so I can't believe it.

JB did mention Texas specifically today in his video blog that he believes snow will fly as far south as I-10 in Texas and be on the ground in I-20. We'll see if that prediction becomes real with the polar/arctic front come this weekend.

I will believe it when I see it flying here. I live 2 miles N of I-10. Nothing in our current forecast indicates we will be even getting precipitation this weekend.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The newest forecasts this evening have taken snow completely out of the forecasts for us up along the Red River. Talk about a complete 180. Hopefully we do at least get some decent rain out of this though so it won't be a total let down.

[gpsnowman]

Three years ago today many of us Texans were enjoying the best snow day ever. Man that was an awesome storm. I went to bed thinking and inch or so could fall. I work late but the commotion from my wife and kids woke me up and when they told me "you better look outside" winter adrenaline hit big time. Around three inches had fallen and big beautiful snowflakes fell from the sky for nearly 24 hours. Around 14 inches at my house before it was all over. Amazing. Will we ever see that again? It could happen. What a memory.