Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
314 PM AST MON FEB 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH ONE LAST LINE STILL ABOUT 25 NM NORTH OF PR
NORTH COAST...ENTIRE LINE MOVING SOUTH AT 6 KNOTS AND WILL CLEAR
PR SOUTH COAST AND ST. CROIX SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING IS A GOOD SURGE OF SUBSIDENCE AND SHOWERS WILL
SUBSTANTIALLY SHALLOW AND DROP OUT.

DRIER AIR SETTLES IN THEREAFTER UFN THOUGH THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
MINOR SURGES OF MOISTURE LATER IN WEEK.

HEAVY SURF TO CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO WED MORNING BUT IT WILL
PROBABLY PEAK TONIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN SHRA AFFECTING MAINLY
TJSJ AND TIST. THE REST OF THE SITES MAY OBSERVE ALSO OBSERVE
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR IN PASSING SHRA BUT MOSTLY VCSH. WIND IS
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY UNTIL 12/00Z. THEREAFTER...THE WINDS
AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP A BIT. AFTER 12/06Z...WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BUT THE EAST NORTHEAST WIND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT AROUND 15 KTS...BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 12/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...8 TO 10 FOOT SEAS TO CONTINUE TO WED IN COMBINATION OF
NORTH SWELLS AND RATHER STRONG WIND. HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY NORTH
OF LOCAL ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 82 / 50 10 30 30
STT 72 84 73 84 / 40 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail in the NE Caribbean for the next few days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
544 AM AST TUE FEB 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST...AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. FRESH TRADE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TODAY...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. THIS GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTS AS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. HOWEVER...
A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
CANT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND LAND/SEA
BREEZE PATTERN PREVAILS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTHEAST
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS OVER TNCM...AND TKPK
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY 10 TO
15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FRESH TRADE
WINDS AND NORTH SWELLS. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY...BECOMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER SHOULD REMAIN LOW TODAY DUE TO COOLER
AIR AND YESTERDAY`S RAINFALL. TEMPS REBOUND QUICKLY WED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE RESULTS IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. WINDS TURN
MORE THE EAST AND EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH TIME WHICH TYPICALLY
RESULTS IN ENHANCED SPEEDS ACROSS THE SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 83 73 / 0 0 10 30
STT 84 72 84 72 / 0 0 10 30

[cycloneye]

Febuary 12 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy over eastern parishes, mainly fair elsewhere.

Afternoon: Expect windy conditions with isolated showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:36 a.m.
 6:07 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:41 a.m.
 6:12 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:42 a.m.
 6:13 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST TUE FEB 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE PROMOTES AN STABLE
AIR MASS AND A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. TRADE WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RELOCATES NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL REGION REMAINS UNDER INFLUENCE OF A BROAD RIDGE
ALOFT. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS...
MAINTAINING AN OVERALL FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
THROUGH THE END OF WEEK. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BRINGING A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS NO DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS ONLY SHOW FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BROUGHT IN ACROSS THE REGION BY THE TRADE WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES
OF LOCALIZED RAIN WILL BE BETWEEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE AND A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TKPK WHERE CLOUD COVER IS CAUSING MVFR CEILINGS.
TKPK COULD OBSERVE TEMPO CEILINGS BELOW 3K FT THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP 25 KNOTS UNTIL 12/23Z. THEREAFTER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS ACROSS PR AND THE USVI...WHILE
REMAINING AT 10 TO 15 KTS AT TKPK AND TNCM.

&&

.MARINE...FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...
BECOMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
HAS PEAKED THIS MORNING AS SEEN IN BUOY 41053 AND BUOY 41115. HOWEVER...
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF FRESH TRADE WINDS AND LINGERING
NORTH SWELLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 83 73 84 / 0 10 30 30
STT 72 84 72 85 / 0 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

Heat is expected this week in Central America and even some showers which is unusual as our dry season is really really dry:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2013

DISCUSSION FROM FEB 12/00UTC: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMAIN CONTINUES TO YIELD TO AMPLIFYING POLAR
TROUGH OVER NORTH AMERICA. THROUGH 48 HRS RIDGE IS TO ERODE ACROSS
MEXICO/THE GULF WHILE CLOSED CIRCULATION RELOCATES FROM THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. BY 72 HRS THE
HIGH WILL PULL FARTHER EAST TO 24N 60W WHILE ASSOCIATED RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA/WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE RELOCATES...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES/CARIBBEAN BASIN...
WHILE OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA THE CAP IS TO WEAKEN. ACROSS
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR EXPECTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY
BY 42-48 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE THIS WILL DECREASE TO 00-05MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE
SUBSIDENCE CAP. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE A LARGE SCALE IMPACT ACROSS
WESTERN COLOMBIA...WHERE PWAT DECREASES FROM 50-60MM TO 30-40MM BY
24-30 HRS. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL SUSTAIN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ACROSS THE CAUCA AND CAUCA VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. THIS DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY BY 36-84 HRS. OVER EJE
CAFETERO AND PACIFIC COASTAL PLAINS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY THROUGH 84-96 HRS.

POLAR TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN USA/NORTHWEST MEXICO IS FORECAST TO
SURGE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IN THE CENTRAL USA BY 24 HRS.
THROUGH 48 HRS THE TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ON ITS WAKE...A BROAD TROUGH IS TO THEN
ESTABLISH ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. AT LOW LEVELS THIS WILL SUSTAIN AN
ELONGATED FRONT THAT TRAILS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF TO
TAMAULIPAS IN NORTHEAST MEXICO BY 24 HRS. THROUGH 36 HRS...UNDER
INFLUENCE OF 25-30KT NORTHERLY WINDS...THE FRONT WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE-THE GULF TO NORTHERN VERACRUZ MEXICO. BY 48
HRS IT WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...
WITH NORTHERLIES OF 20-25KT TO ACCOMPANY THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY 60-72 HRS THE FRONT IS TO MEANDER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO QUINTANA ROO IN THE YUCATAN TO CHIAPAS/
CAMPECHE SOUND. THE FRONT IS TO THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH 96 HRS. FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS VERACRUZ TO CENTRAL
STATES OF MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
YUCATAN TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA ON DAY 02. ON DAY 03...DAILY MAXIMA
WILL INCREASE TO 15-25MM. AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
THROUGH 72-96 HRS EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM BY 48 HRS. THIS INCREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM BY 60-84 HRS...WANING LATER ON
DAY 04.

DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...A POLAR TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TO THE LESSER ANTILLES/
NORTHERN VENEZUELA. AS RIDGE PATTERN TO THE WEST EVOLVES...TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO BECOME NARROW AND ELONGATED. THROUGH 48-72 HRS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IS TO FILL WHILE MAIN BODY LIFTS TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF SAINT
CROIX/PUERTO RICO. THE MEANDERING SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
FRONTOLIZE DURING THE DAY...WITH A BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS TO RELOCATE TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK. AS IT
PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO THE EAST EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THIS...IN-TURN...WILL FAVOR ADVECTION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLES. AS A RESULT... EXPECTING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH CHANCE FOR EARLY MORNING TRADE WIND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
USVI-EASTERN PUERTO RICO ON THURSDAY-SATURDAY...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY. ACROSS NORTHEAST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN
GUYANA/SURINAME THE SHEAR LINE WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

THE GUIANAS ARE TO THEN SLOWLY FALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A CROSS
EQUATORIAL/SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TROUGH (TUTT). THE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN BRASIL TO THE GUIANAS...
WITH AXIS TO SLOWLY SHIFT WEST AND SOUTH AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES.
THIS...IN-TURN...IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ TO SUSTAIN
A SURGE IN ACTIVITY. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED ACROSS FRENCH
GUIANA/AMAPA IN BRASIL WHERE THE ITCZ IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS SURINAME TO
GUYANA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM THROUGH 60 HRS. THIS THEN INCREASES TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. MOISTURE IS TO THEN SURGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS TO ISLA DE MARGARITA...WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather with only a few showers will prevail thru the rest of the week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
513 AM AST WED FEB 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT AND SO FAR THIS MORNING AS THE MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO INDUCE A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION. FEW LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED MOSTLY
ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAK REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MASS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL
PERSIST OVER THE FA TODAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS DRY AIR WILL ALMOST WIPE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. IN
FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW OR CLOSE TO 1.0 INCH FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG THE NXT
24 HRS. LATEST 13/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY E-NE WINDS WITH
AVG SPD BTW 10-20 KTS FM SFC-FL200 BECOMING NORTHERLY AND INCR W/HT
ABV TO MAX NR 50 KTS NR FL300. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY SHALLOW
SCT-BKN CLD LYRS MAINLY BTW FL020-FL050 MOV SW WITH ONLY FEW LGT EMBED
SHRA ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
TODAY. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL HAS PEAKED YESTERDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TODAY. HOWEVER...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND
LINGERING NORTH SWELLS. AS A RESULT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AST TODAY.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 84 74 / 10 30 30 20
STT 84 73 85 75 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:35 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:40 a.m.
 6:13 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:41 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
305 PM AST WED FEB 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE A
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED TODAY AS A RELATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS OVER THE AREA. SOME SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHWEST PR MAY HELP INDUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THAT AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY
BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THE GFS INDICATES FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL WHILE THE NAM MODEL SUGGESTS SHOWERS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
TERMINALS. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO
10 KTS AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE EASTERLY. AFTER 14/12Z WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WITH SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS.


&&

.MARINE...SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT NOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DUE TO SEAS OF UP TO 8 FEET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 84 73 / 10 30 40 20
STT 84 73 84 75 / 10 30 30 20

[Macrocane]

Winds and cold air is returning this weekend to Central America :

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EST WED FEB 13 2013

DISCUSSION FROM FEB 13/00UTC: AMPLIFYING POLAR TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA IS TO QUICKLY BECOME THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE.
THROUGH 24-36 HRS THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SURGE
ACROSS THE EASTERN USA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. BROAD TROUGH IS TO
THEN PERSIST THROUGH 84-96 HRS AS SUCCESSIVE SHORT WAVE VORTICES
REVOLVE AROUND THE LONG WAVE AXIS. AT LOW LEVELS THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT MOVES TO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS CYCLE...TRAILING
ACROSS THE GULF TO THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. BY 30-36 HRS THE FRONT
MEANDERS TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS-SOUTHERN FLORIDA-GULF OF MEXICO
TO VERACRUZ/CAMPECHE SOUND. IT IS TO THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY
THROUGH 72-78 HRS. BY 84-96 HRS...AS A POLAR HIGH BUILDS ACROSS
TEXAS TO THE GULF...THE FRONT IS TO UNDULATE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA...TRAILING ACROSS THE YUCATAN/
NORTHERN BELIZE-GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. THE
ENSUING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL FAVOR A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF
25-30KT ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY
96-108 HRS. FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS VERACRUZ TO CENTRAL STATES
OF MEXICO WILL SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM/DAY THROUGH 36-48 HRS. LATER IN THE CYCLE...AS THE
NORTHERLIES STRENGTHEN...THIS IS TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. ACROSS THE YUCATAN TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA IT
IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY. BY 72-84 HRS THE MAXIMA WILL INCREASE TO 20-30MM/DAY.
AS THE FRONT ENTERS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECTING ACCUMULATION
OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE MODELS THEN SHOW RISK OF
ECHO TRAINING ON DAY 02 AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS BIMINI-GRAND
BAHAMA...AS A RESULT EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM BY 36-72 HRS. THROUGH 84-96 HRS THE MAXIMA
WILL DECREASE TO 20-30MM. OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM BY 24 HRS. THIS INCREASES TO
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM BY 36-72 HRS. OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN...THE NORTHERLY WIND SURGE WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE BETWEEN PUERTO BARRIOS GUATEMALA AND SAN PEDRO SULA
HONDURAS. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM ON DAY 04.

AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ESTABLISHES A FOOTHOLD OVER THE
CONTINENT...RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS IS TO ROLL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH 48 HRS. IT THEN MOVES
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES LATER ON DAY 03. AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE RIDGE WILL SUSTAIN...IF NOT
STRENGTHEN...THE TRADE WIND CAP OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
BUT AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY...AND THE RIDGE ERODES...THE CAP IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 700 HPA. THIS...IN-TURN...WILL ALLOW FOR
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE TO ADVECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AT
LOW LEVELS...POLAR FRONT EXITING THE USA WILL PUSH AGAINST BROAD
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THE RIDGE IS TO YIELD...GRADUALLY
RELOCATING TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. AS IT PULLS AWAY...LOW LEVEL
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE TO VEER TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY...AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY ON THURSDAY. THE
EVOLVING PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO GENERATION OF
STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES TO AFFECT EASTERN
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. IN BRIEF SHOWERS...ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. AS A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES...AND
SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY ACROSS THE LEEWARD-VIRGIN ISLES TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THIS IS TO ALSO ADVECT A MOIST PLUME ACROSS JAMAICA BY 24-36
HRS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM/DAY. THIS THEN CONTINUES INTO THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY 48
HRS...TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM/DAY. THE PLUME IS TO THEN FEED INTO CONVECTION BUILDING OVER
WESTERN CUBA (SEE ABOVE). ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO
NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN
EVOLVES...THIS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBSIDENCE CAP...RESULTING IN
RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT...ON WESTERN
PLAINS AND ANDEAN REGION OF COLOMBIA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

A SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE TUTT EXTENDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ACROSS
NORTHEAST BRASIL TO THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA/FRENCH GUIANA. UPPER
TROUGH PATTERN IS TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE TROUGH ALSO TRAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE
TROPICS-NORTHERN GUIANAS. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE TROUGHS IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
ITCZ AS IT MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS. ACROSS
SURINAME-GUYANA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-25MM/DAY...WHILE OVER FRENCH GUIANA EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. THROUGH 72-84
HRS CONVECTION WILL BUILD WEST AND NORTH INTO THE ORINOCO DELTA
REGION-SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLES/ISLA DE MARGARITA TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

BLENMAN...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather in general will prevail during the next few days in the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
510 AM AST THU FEB 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A
GENERALLY FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN TODAY BECOMING FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST BY
TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE
WIND FLOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.V.I...BUT MOST OF THE REGION
WAS RAIN FREE AS THE THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE REGION INDUCING A GENERALLY DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE FA. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM TIME TO TIME ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MASS OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR
WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA TODAY AND UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. IN FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW OR CLOSE TO 1.0
INCH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG THE
NEXT 24 HRS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL ADVECT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST...INCREASING THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND THE
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHRA ACROSS THE USVI AND EASTERN PR BETWEEN
14/02-12Z. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS PSBL OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN PR.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE BTWN
5-15 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. BUOY 41043 DROPPED BELOW 6
FEET. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON AST
TODAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE ANEGADA PASSAGE DUE
TO SEAS OF UP TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10
STT 85 74 85 75 / 30 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 14 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:35 a.m.
 6:08 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:40 a.m.
 6:13 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:41 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
250 PM AST THU FEB 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
AREA...HELPING TO KEEP MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
IN ADDITION...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL KEEP THE WINDS FROM THE EAST TODAY AND THEN FROM THE EAST
SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MADE ITS WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA
TODAY...HELPING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. PW VALUES OF ABOUT 1.1 INCHES TO 1.3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TOMORROW BUT AT THIS
TIME ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN AGAIN ON SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH PW VALUES
AT 1.1 INCHES OR LESS BEFORE SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS
MOVE IN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...PASSING CLOUDS AND SHRA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. CIGS AT FL040-060 ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE BVI/USVI AS WELL AS TJBQ/TKMZ. AFTER 15/00Z
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE...EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS AT THE SURFACE AND AT 15KTS OR LESS UP TO FL020.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED AND THERE ARE NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES AT THE MOMENT DUE TO EXPECTED SEAS OF 6 FEET OR LESS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND
WINDS UP TO 20 KTS. THERE IS ANOTHER SWELL EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 84 72 82 / 20 20 10 10
STT 74 85 75 84 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

Here in Central America Valentine's Day is known as Día del amor y la amistad (Love and friendship's day) so happy friendship's day

Latest HPC Discussion:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EST THU FEB 14 2013

DISCUSSION FROM FEB 14/00UTC: POTENT AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WILL CONTINUE BEING THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS TROUGH WILL SUSTAIN SEVERAL SHORT WAVE
VORTICES THROUGH THE CYCLE. THE FIRST ONE IS EXITING NORTHERN
MEXICO AND BY 24 HRS WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. BY 48 HRS IT WILL ALREADY EXIT THE EAST COAST OF THE US.
AT LOW LEVELS...THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL EXTEND ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA-CENTRAL GULF-GULF OF CAMPECHE-VERACRUZ BY 24 HRS.
BY 48 HRS IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY WHILE EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA-EXTREME NORTHERN YUCATAN-CAMPECHE-VERACRUZ. BY
48-72 HRS...DIGGING TROUGH ALOFT AND BUILDING POLAR SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS TEXAS-NORTHWEST GULF INDUCE A NORTHERLY SURGE THAT WILL
PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHEASTWARD AGAIN. BY 72 HRS THE FRONT WILL
EXTEND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL
CUBA-BELIZE-GUATEMALA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO. ACROSS THE
TAIL OF THE FRONT...FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL INITIALLY LEAD TO
ACCUMULATIONS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM ACROSS
VERACRUZ/CENTRAL MEXICO. PRESSURE GRADIENT AS POLAR HIGH BUILDS
WILL THEN TRIGGER A NORTHERLY WIND SURGE OF 25-30KT ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...PEAKING ON DAY 03-04. AS
THE WINDS INCREASE...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE EASTERN/NORTHERN SLOPES OF VERACRUZ...NORTHERN
CHIAPAS AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCEMENT WILL ALSO BE PRESENT BETWEEN
EASTERN GUATEMALA INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS/GULF OF HOUNDURAS/BELIZE.
IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 40-80MM ON DAY 03. TO THE EAST...FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET.
THIS WILL ENHANCE/PRODUCE DEEP CONVECTION. FURTHERMORE...RISK OF
ECHO TRAINING EXISTS AS DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS EXPECTING AMOUNTS TO
INCREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS.
MAXIMA WILL THEN DECREASE TO 20-40MM. OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING
ALSO HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE ORDER OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM THROUGH 36-48 HRS...DECREASING TO MAXIMA OF 20-30MM
AFTERWARDS.

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS IS TO ROLL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THROUGH 24 HRS. IT THEN MOVES
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLES LATER ON DAY 03. AS IT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...THE RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN THE TRADE
WIND CAP OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLES LIMITING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. BUT AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY...AND THE RIDGE
ERODES...THE CAP IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 700 HPA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOMEWHAT DEEPER MOISTURE TO ARRIVE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA/JAMAICA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. THE AFOREMENTIONED POLAR
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL PUSH AGAINST BROAD RIDGE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. AS THE RIDGE RELOCATES TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...LOW
LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE VEERING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE EVOLVING PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
GENERATION OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLES TO AFFECT
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. STILL...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
BE POTENT ENOUGH TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. FURTHER WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA/JAMAICA/CAYMAN ISLANDS/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY/COVERAGE THROUGH THE CYCLE AS THEY INTERACT WITH
IMPROVING DYNAMIC FORCING AT UPPER LEVELS.

ACROSS SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TO NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA...AS
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PATTERN EVOLVES SUBSIDENCE CAP IS TO
STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN RAPID EROSION OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
FURTHERMORE...DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ADVECTING DRY AIR AT MID/UPPER LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN
INTO THE REGION...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS. MOST
ACTIVE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ANDEAN REGION OF
COLOMBIA. HERE...EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY IS EXPECTED IN EXTREME NORTHWEST COLOMBIA BY
60-84 HRS.

DEEP NORTHERN HEMISPHERE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC-NORTHERN GUIANAS WILL CONTINUE
ENHANCING VENTILATION AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ITCZ AS
IT MEANDERS INTO THE SOUTHERN GUIANAS. ACROSS SURINAME-GUYANA
EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. OVER FRENCH GUIANA EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. THROUGH DAY 03 CONVECTION
WILL BUILD WEST AND NORTH INTO THE ORINOCO DELTA REGION TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.

BLENMAN...BMS (BARBADOS)
GALDAMEZ...DGOA-MARN (EL SALVADOR)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A good weekend weatherwise is expected for the NE Caribbean islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST FRI FEB 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A GENERALLY
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL PATCHES OF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE
TRADE WIND FLOW MOVED ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DETECTED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WITH FEW OF THEM
AFFECTING THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S.V.I. HOWEVER MOST OF THE REGION WAS
RAIN FREE AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
LOCAL AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS MASS OF RELATIVELY
DRY AIR WILL PERSIST OVER THE FA TODAY AND FOR THE WEEKEND. IN
FACT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE BELOW OR CLOSE TO 1.0 INCH FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES DURG THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREVIOUS TJSJ U/A SOUNDING AND LATEST WSR88-D VAD WIND
PROFILE INDICATED MAINLY EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO
20 KTS BLO FL150.THEN SLIGHTLY BACKING AND BCMG FM THE NORTH AT
15-20 KTS UP TO FL350.PASSING LOW LEVEL CLDS AND FEW TRADE WINDS
SHRA WILL MOVE WEST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BTW ERN PR AND THE NRN
LEEWARDS INCLUDING THE USVI. SOME AFTN SHOWERS REMAIN PSBL NR TJBQ
AND TJMZ BETWEEN 15/17Z-15/20Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS OF 5 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE RAPIDLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 83 73 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 73 84 75 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 15 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:34 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:39 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:40 a.m.
 6:15 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
243 PM AST FRI FEB 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VERY DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO
NO SHOWER ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. VERY STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. THIS HAS LIMITED
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS ARE
SHIFTING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST...AS A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. THESE WINDS ARE PRODUCING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO. AS 230 PM AST...THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE REPORTED SO
FAR AT LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WAS 86
DEGREES. THIS DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING
THE WEEKEND..WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO...DUE TO THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY
MONDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 6 FEET OR LESS...WITH WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20 KTS ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A WILDFIRE WAS OBSERVED BETWEEN SALINAS AND COAMO THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDY AND TURNING DRYER ON THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO FUEL DRYNESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 72 83 / 10 10 10 10
STT 73 84 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
429 AM AST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS
ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...THEN INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINTAINING RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT RACING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SETTLE ACROSS
WESTERN HISPANIOLA BY SUNDAY...WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY THEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH AND STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL REGION...AND TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS
INCREASING THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIMITED TO NO
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDINGS WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A PREVAILING EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW TODAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EAST NORTHEAST LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS NORTH
OF THE AREA AND INCREASES THE EASTERLY TRADES. FOR NOW LOOKING FOR
ONLY BRIEF PERIODS OF MOSTLY LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS AND MINIMAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IF ANY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT OF A
BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT
ACROSS THE REGION BY THE STRONG EASTERLY TRADE. FOR NOW SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER MAKER IS EXPECT TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 16/12Z. NO SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 5 FEET OR LESS TODAY...WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS OVER THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION ACROSS MOST COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REQUIRED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO ARRIVAL OF A
NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL COMBINED WITH CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DUE TO
INCREASING TRADE WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...CONTINUED FUEL DRYNESS AND ENHANCED SEA BREEZES
ALONG WITH INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS...WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS....ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN SLOPES AND SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ALL
LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO CONTINUE TO DISPOSE OF
ALL FLAMMABLE MATERIALS IN THEIR PROPER RECEPTACLES AND REPORT ANY
SMOKE OR FIRE SIGHTINGS TO THE LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 84 72 / 10 20 20 20
STT 84 74 84 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Febuary 16 Jamaica forecast:

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 

Location
 Sunrise
 Sunset
 
Kingston
 6:34 a.m.
 6:09 p.m.
 
Montego Bay
 6:39 a.m.
 6:14 p.m.
 
Negril
 6:40 a.m.
 6:15 p.m.
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST SAT FEB 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON MON AS POLAR TROUGH
LIFTS ACROSS THE ATLC. POLAR TROUGH LIFTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE ATLC EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ERODING ON MON AS
POLAR TROUGH LIFTS ACROSS THE ATLC WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
WEAKENING AND SHALLOW MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HOWEVER THIS IS
LIKELY TO MANIFEST MORE IN CLOUD CLUSTERS THAN ANYTHING ELSE WITH SOME
SPRINKLES AS WINDS INCREASE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THEN
STRENGTHENS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. OVERALL DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS. WINDY EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT DIMINISHING WINDS MID
WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 16/12Z INDICATED A SOUTHEAST FLOW
10 TO 20 KTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO 20 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRES EXITING THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL
TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT MON AND TUE WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS MAKING FOR VERY ROUGH SEAS. NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL ALSO
BUILD ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUE-WED. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE THU AS SWELLS AND WINDS SUBSIDE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN FCST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LOOKS TO BE CLOUD COVER EXTENT AS ALL OTHER PARAMETERS...FUELS...
WINDS...AND STABILITY APPEAR HIGHLY FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT A SIG
FIRE WEATHER EPISODE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT APPEARS TOMORROW WINDS
WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT AND MORE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP IMPROVE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SOMEWHAT. CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSTABLE MON-
TUE AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS/WEAKENS ALLOWING FOR LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BUT THIS IS LIKELY TO MANIFEST MORE IN EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS THAN ANYTHING ELSE. ON TUE...GFS SHOWS WINDS INCREASING
SUBSTANTIALLY AND LOW LEVELS DRYING OUT WHILE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING
UNSTABLE. MAIN KEY HERE WILL BE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 0 10 20 20
STT 74 84 74 85 / 10 10 30 30

[Macrocane]

The winds have been picking up quickly tonight , you can clearly see the cold front reaching western Honduras in this picture: