Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Kelarie]

From Shreveport NWS...

...THE SHORT TERM PROGS MAINTAIN THE COLD CORE CENTER OF THE TROUGH
PROGRESSING E ACROSS NE OK/SE KS/MO/NW AR TONIGHT...AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO SPILL SE IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW/FRONTAL BNDRY.
MODEL PARTIAL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A -RA/IP/SN MIX
ACROSS MCCURTAIN CO OK AS WELL AS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES OF SW
AR...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA MAINTAIN THE FREEZING
LEVEL GENERALLY 1.5-2.3KFT. HOWEVER...SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THESE AREAS SHOULD THIS LIGHT WINTRY MIX INDEED
FALL...THUS NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THIS POSSIBLE WINTRY MIX
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...WITH POSTFRONTAL
STRATOCU GRADUALLY MIXING OUT BY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD SE THROUGH TX WEDNESDAY AND BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY...WITH MODEST TEMP RISES EXPECTED THURSDAY AS WRLY WINDS
COMMENCE ATOP THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

THE MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH DIVING S INTO
THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE ANOTHER STRONGER
COLD FRONT S INTO THE AREA. THE BNDRY MAY BE INITIALLY SHALLOW AT
FIRST...BEFORE IT GRADUALLY DEEPENS DURING THE DAY IN RESPONSE TO
SFC HEIGHT RISES AHEAD OF STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SSE
FROM THE PLAINS. THE GFS REMAINS THE WET OUTLIER IN DEVELOPING
POSTFRONTAL -SHRA ALONG THE 850MB TROUGH...JUST IN TIME AS MUCH COLDER
AIR BEGINS TO SPILL S FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY
DRIER...BUT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREAWIDE BUT EXPAND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX FARTHER S ACROSS E TX/N LA.
ATTM...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS TO BE A PROBLEM EVEN IN THE
PRESENCE OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING...AND TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR OR
ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE MOST PART. THUS NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY
OF WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS ATTM.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Heavy rain mixed with sleet this morning.

[Texas Snowman]

Ahh, this little Texas winter weather tidbit - and anniversary - will make the heart of Wxman57 burn with envy!




http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=wwad-coldestintexas

"FEBRUARY 1899 WAS A VERY COLD MONTH. DURING THE PERIOD OF FEBRUARY 11TH THROUGH THE 13TH, AN ARCTIC AIRMASS RACED SOUTH FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS PLUNGED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WHERE A THIN LAYER OF ICE COATED MOST OF GALVESTON BAY ON FEBRUARY 12TH.

SOME OF THE COLDEST WEATHER ON RECORD FOR THE STATE OF TEXAS
OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 12TH. IN FACT, THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE IN THE
STATE OCCURRED RIGHT HERE IN WEST TEXAS. ON THE MORNING OF
FEBRUARY 12TH, THE THERMOMETER PLUMMETED TO 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO AT TULIA IN SWISHER COUNTY. THERE WERE UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF LOW TEMPERATURES REACHING 30 DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE."

[Texas Snowman]

Of course, the Tulia record low was also tied years later in Seminole:

"THE ALL TIME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE ESTABLISHED AT TULIA WAS TIED
YEARS LATER WHEN ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS PLUNGED INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS. IN ADDITION, THE SMALL TOWN OF SEMINOLE IN GAINES COUNTY
REPORTED A TEMPERATURE OF 23 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ON FEBRUARY 8TH 1933.

THE YEARS 1899 AND 1933 WERE NOT THE ONLY YEARS FOR RECORD COLD
ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS. THE FOLLOWING IS A LIST OF CITIES WITH
CORRESPONDING RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND DATES OF OCCURRENCE.

ABILENE..................9 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1947
AMARILLO................16 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1899
AUSTIN...................2 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1949
BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR....11 DEGREES........SET IN 1930
BROWNSVILLE.............12 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
CORPUS CHRISTI..........11 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
DALLAS/FORT WORTH........8 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1899
DEL RIO.................10 DEGREES........SET IN 1989
EL PASO..................8 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1962
GALVESTON................8 DEGREES........SET IN 1899
HOUSTON..................5 DEGREES........SET IN 1930 AND 1940
LUBBOCK.................17 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1933
MIDLAND/ODESSA..........11 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1985
SAN ANGELO...............4 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1989
SAN ANTONIO..............0 DEGREES........SET IN 1949
WACO.....................5 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1949 AND 1899
WICHITA FALLS...........12 BELOW ZERO.....SET IN 1947"

[Jarodm12]

12z nam suggesting a change over to snow late this evening red river counties north Texas who knows

[Jarodm12]

Rap says all rain infact the rap says all rain in Oklahoma this evening sure would be nice to get some snow here in north Texas

[orangeblood]

Not sure what the CFSv2 models picked up on last night but haven't seen an agreement, between CFSv2 models, like this for winter weather deep into the heart of Texas all winter - this is within the next 5 days.....Now, we don't have a lot of support from the other models for such a scenario but it's interesting none the less.

[Texas Snowman]

Snow or not, enjoying the cold heavy rain in Denison this morning. Lots of runoff and standing water.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

I'm nothing more than an observer, but based on my view of the radar returns, DFW is about to get dry slotted? Am I seeing it right? I am sitting at .40 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, which I will gladly take!

[gboudx]

I'm nothing more than an observer, but based on my view of the radar returns, DFW is about to get dry slotted? Am I seeing it right? I am sitting at .40 inches of rain in the last 24 hours, which I will gladly take!

The DFW NWS put out a graphic early this morning saying the morning rain would end in the metroplex between 10-12pm due to drier air moving in from the SW.

[Portastorm]

I'm waiting to see a post from weatherguy425 in Lubbock as my son, a student at TTU, has texted me and is reporting sleet falling on campus as of 10 a.m. Looks like LBB ended up a little cooler than initially anticipated as it was supposed to be just a cold rain there.

And how are y'all liking that little "wintry" surprise for north central Texas on Saturday from the 12z GFS?!

[orangeblood]

I'm waiting to see a post from weatherguy425 in Lubbock as my son, a student at TTU, has texted me and is reporting sleet falling on campus as of 10 a.m. Looks like LBB ended up a little cooler than initially anticipated as it was supposed to be just a cold rain there.

And how are y'all liking that little "wintry" surprise for north central Texas on Saturday from the 12z GFS?!

The Saturday event is quite interesting...there is a second piece of energy making it's way through the northwest flow on the backside of the massive trough forming over the Mississippi Valley. Predicting these individual pieces of energy moving through such fast flow is extremely difficult for the models and you can tell by the way they waver back and forth with the precip chances. It's almost like trying to predict where a leaf in a fast moving river will end up. Over the years, I've noticed that North Texas has had a few surprising events come out of northwest flow....New Years Eve 2000 snowstorm comes to mind

[Ntxw]

I am quite at odds with that set up too. Not too familiar with such flows, it almost seems like 'clippers' they get up north. Usually cold comes in and wipes the atmosphere clean with such a trough.

[weatherguy425]

I'm waiting to see a post from weatherguy425 in Lubbock as my son, a student at TTU, has texted me and is reporting sleet falling on campus as of 10 a.m. Looks like LBB ended up a little cooler than initially anticipated as it was supposed to be just a cold rain there.

And how are y'all liking that little "wintry" surprise for north central Texas on Saturday from the 12z GFS?!

While we are cool enough, we are just a TAD too far south to get in on any real precipitation of the wintry variety. Had off and on thunder-sleet/groupel overnight along with the rain. Coated cars, grass, roofs. But, melted fairly quickly. Had a five minute period of light to moderate snow as well earlier this AM. Several inch amounts just to my north, it's quite frustrating.

[wxman57]

Here's the 12Z Euro 24hr snowfall graphic for next weekend. Shows about 2mm of liquid from NE OK to NW AR Friday night/Saturday. That's less than 0.1" liquid, or between 1/2" and an inch of snow.

[dhweather]

Well, outside of a few cold days near/below climo, I think Winter is largely done.

But if you'd like to get in the holiday spirit, listen to this:


http://io9.com/5867748/listen-to-the-na ... -the-halls

[gboudx]

Well, outside of a few cold days near/below climo, I think Winter is largely done.

I blame this all on Ntxw and his swipe at 57 with the "winter of wxman57's discontent" written in the sneaux on his windshield. The weather gods were not amused. But we can all(almost all) take some relief in knowing that at some point this summer, the mercury will rise too high that even 57 wouldn't dare heat stroke. Nothing like riding the open road in late July/early August with the hair dryer switched up to high-heat.

[wxman57]

Well, outside of a few cold days near/below climo, I think Winter is largely done.

I blame this all on Ntxw and his swipe at 57 with the "winter of wxman57's discontent" written in the sneaux on his windshield. The weather gods were not amused. But we can all(almost all) take some relief in knowing that at some point this summer, the mercury will rise too high that even 57 wouldn't dare heat stroke. Nothing like riding the open road in late July/early August with the hair dryer switched up to high-heat.

You're wrong, I'll love the heat! I love biking in July and arriving home after a 4-5 hour ride with salt crusted on my face. I get chilled if the temp is below 80 deg. As for the rest of our winter, we've seen the coldest back in early January (by far). Mid February is approaching and March is only 2 weeks away. Rumor has it we may see warmer than normal temps in March/April.

[Ntxw]

Why are we giving wxman such credence? I've hardly seen the sun in a week! Spits of rain every other day and the park nearby has water puddles that havent had a chance to evap, we will not go out without a fight, may the force be with us this weekend!

Edit: I sense 3 near hits/threats back to back until about the 25th after that it will be time to pack up the suitcases in terms of sustained cold

[somethingfunny]

Well, it is "Texas"...