Texas Winter 2012-2013

[somethingfunny]

Oh and I'm thinking about a Saturday Night into Sunday snow chase to Eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas, coming back Sunday night assuming the roads are passable. PM me if you're interested in joining... not my plan's not set in stone, but I'm definitely thinking about doing this... if the QPFs trend higher.

[Ntxw]

Oh and I'm thinking about a Saturday Night into Sunday snow chase to Eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas, coming back Sunday night assuming the roads are passable. PM me if you're interested in joining... not my plan's not set in stone, but I'm definitely thinking about doing this... if the QPFs trend higher.

I don't think this weekend's system will be worth chasing at least not yet. The next two will be big ticket items at the very least not far (Oklahoma and the panhandle) if not closer. Those look more like blizzard potentials with hp to their north

[Portastorm]

Well, outside of a few cold days near/below climo, I think Winter is largely done.

I blame this all on Ntxw and his swipe at 57 with the "winter of wxman57's discontent" written in the sneaux on his windshield. The weather gods were not amused. But we can all(almost all) take some relief in knowing that at some point this summer, the mercury will rise too high that even 57 wouldn't dare heat stroke. Nothing like riding the open road in late July/early August with the hair dryer switched up to high-heat.

No, it is not Ntxw's fault. Blame me. I'm the one who came up with the "Winter of Wxman57's Discontent." Ha! The joke was on me. Heat Miser ruled again.

[somethingfunny]

Yeah, I'm in a tentative state about a snow chase. The problem is I work six days a week so Sundays are really my only opportunity. Since I work in a restaurant I'm going to need a little vacation after V-Day anyway.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
344 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WV SAT LOOP SHOWS THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN OKLAHOMA
WHILE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A CIRCULATION CLOSER TO FT SILL.
FOR THIS EVENING WE EXPECT SOME LIGHT RAIN ...CURRENTLY WEST OF
WICHITA FALLS...TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX ALONG THE
EASTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING...NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN TOO WARM FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OR ANY TRAVEL CONCERNS.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A FEW DAYS OF DRY WEATHER AS
A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER NORTH AMERICA. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE WEST SIDE OF THE TROUGH ON FRIDAY AND
SWING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE CMC AND SREF MODELS ARE THE
COLDEST BUT DOES NOT PRODUCE MUCH FROZEN PRECIP WHILE THE GFS IS
SOMEWHAT WARMER AND REMAINS BULLISH FOR SNOWFALL. THE ECMWF IS AS
COLD AS THE GFS BUT DOES NOT PRODUCE MUCH FROZEN PRECIP. SINCE OUR
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW OF EXPERIENCING TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO
FROZEN PRECIP SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA...WE WILL KEEP ALL OF FRIDAY/S
PRECIP LIQUID FOR NOW. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM FOR IT/S SNOW POTENTIAL AND KEEP EVERYONE INFORMED.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY. STRONG WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA.

TUESDAY WILL BE COOL AND DRY AS RIDGING ALOFT RETURNS.

MOS TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY BEHIND EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEEKEND.

[orangeblood]

Relative to averages, Texas should see the coldest temperature anomalies of the entire winter over the next two weeks. Now, being cold enough for wintry weather remains to be seen but like Ntxw has mentioned, the pattern favors numerous opportunities across the southern plains. Feb 20-21st and again around 24-25th are the most intriguing.

[Ntxw]

Portastorm advertised a full fledged pattern change after Feb 12th. The date is here and there is 5-10" of snow in the panhandle and Oklahoma. While it is not unusual for this area, the shorter wavelengths are coming to fruition. Keep your fingers crossed that wxman57 will come out the other end scathed! Don't worry though, his winter will last longer than most of ours as he is traveling to Norway come April, may it be frigid and snowy in Oslo then!

[dhweather]

Rumor has it we may see warmer than normal temps in March/April.

NCEP agrees with that.




And that's why we have this persistent problem:

[Ntxw]

^ Here's some encouraging news in the precip department long range, the January PDO index came in at -0.14 which is the highest value since the last El Nino and has been steadily rising since last fall. It means the battering of cold west/warm east and dry plains from the Pacific will lessen heading into spring. Unfortunately it means drought growth will intensify in the northern plains near Ms Screamer as Texas could get relief from the backside return flow of the big high up north come summer.

[jerryh421]

NWS has given us a 20% chance of rain, sleet and snow Saturday in Momtgomery just north of Houston. I doubt it will stay forecasted, but it's nice to look at.

[Ntxw]

This is for the southeast Texas folks since it's very rare to see any model showing wintry precip there. Warning though it was drawn by Portastorm so take it as you like! Frame it, stare at it, drool over it!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Try praying for rain instead......it for sure won't be falling up here.

[arizona_sooner]

Let me tell you I am happy for the third of an inch of precip we got here south of Tulsa... It snowed briefly here tonight but no accumulation of course.

Winter of '12 - nothing.

But I could care less about snow. We need precip period. Rain sleet hail whatever, we need it.

So I will be happy with a few downed tree limbs this spring as long as it rains!

Bring on spring (and beneficial rains) already!!!!

But the persistence forecaster in me signals a long, hot, spring, summer, and fall.... Ugh.

[Ptarmigan]

Well, outside of a few cold days near/below climo, I think Winter is largely done.

I blame this all on Ntxw and his swipe at 57 with the "winter of wxman57's discontent" written in the sneaux on his windshield. The weather gods were not amused. But we can all(almost all) take some relief in knowing that at some point this summer, the mercury will rise too high that even 57 wouldn't dare heat stroke. Nothing like riding the open road in late July/early August with the hair dryer switched up to high-heat.

You're wrong, I'll love the heat! I love biking in July and arriving home after a 4-5 hour ride with salt crusted on my face. I get chilled if the temp is below 80 deg. As for the rest of our winter, we've seen the coldest back in early January (by far). Mid February is approaching and March is only 2 weeks away. Rumor has it we may see warmer than normal temps in March/April.

I hope for cooler than normal March/April. Hopefully a freeze in March.

[Ntxw]

Well the Ukmet and Canadian went over to the happy post frontal precip while the GFS says what stuff? Lets see what the euro says maybe we can get a positive trend going for the weekend.

[Portastorm]

Well the Ukmet and Canadian went over to the happy post frontal precip while the GFS says what stuff? Lets see what the euro says maybe we can get a positive trend going for the weekend.

King Euro said: NO SNOW FOR YOU, TEXAS!

[Ntxw]

Did you see what the king did in its run last night Porta? It went bonkers. I mean, pretty used to the GFS fantasy diving the AO and NAO with phantom cold but not the euro!

[Portastorm]

Did you see what the king did in its run last night Porta? It went bonkers. I mean, pretty used to the GFS fantasy diving the AO and NAO with phantom cold but not the euro!

Should I assume you're referring to the 1046mb high over the Dakotas at 216 hours?!

Yeah I saw it. But I'll admit that I've grown real tired this winter in particular of promising model runs beyond five days which never pan out ... including the King. As we all have said, the clock is ticking loudly and quickly now. We are running out of time. I feel like a football fan whose team is getting beat 42-0 and I'm just hoping we can score at least a touchdown.

[Ntxw]

Yeah but I wasn't as interested in the temperatures, burned by those before. It was the -NAO backtracking and surpressed storm track with a slightly -pna config medium range that gave some hope.

[wxman57]

Oh and I'm thinking about a Saturday Night into Sunday snow chase to Eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas, coming back Sunday night assuming the roads are passable. PM me if you're interested in joining... not my plan's not set in stone, but I'm definitely thinking about doing this... if the QPFs trend higher.

Euro is indicating about 1mm liquid or .03 inches liquid - maybe 1/4" snow or so this weekend across NE Oklahoma. 06Z GFS indicates no snow. Not much to chase, probably.

[wxman57]

Did you see what the king did in its run last night Porta? It went bonkers. I mean, pretty used to the GFS fantasy diving the AO and NAO with phantom cold but not the euro!

Here's the 00Z Euro 24hr snow totals for that system at 216 hrs. Peaks out around 20mm (just under an inch liquid) over NE Kansas. Maybe 8-10" snow up there.