![Image](http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh1513.gif)
WTXS31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/101451Z FEB 13//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15S (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 12.1S 82.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1S 82.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 13.2S 81.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 14.5S 80.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 16.0S 79.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 17.5S 79.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.6S 79.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 24.5S 82.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 27.0S 86.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 82.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15S (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING AND INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION WHICH IS
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 102329Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS BROKEN DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE LLCC BEING OBSCURED IN THE IR IMAGERY
AND THE AMBIGUITY IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS FROM PGTW DUE TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING
STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A DEVELOPING POINT SOURCE
NEAR THE SYSTEM AND AMPLE EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS
BEING ENHANCED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AUSTRALIA. TC 15S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO TRACK MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR.
AFTER TAU 36, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL RE-ORIENT THE STR CAUSING
TC 15S TO TRACK MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH TAU 72, AFTER WHICH, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK WESTERLY AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 15S IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (27 TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES(SSTS), AND AMPLE OUTFLOW. AFTER TAU 72, TC 15S
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER VWS AND COOLER SSTS,
AND BEGINS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, THEREFORE, THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 101451Z FEB 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 101500). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z AND 120300Z.//
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