Texas Winter 2012-2013

[orangeblood]

Great GFS run tonight for the last 10 days of the month, if you like wintry weather. Coming into better agreement with its ensemble members, Showing a suppressed jet across the southern US carving a massive coast to coast North American trough

[wxman57]

Some very light snow in the Panhandle and NE Oklahoma tomorrow night. Next Friday's snow from central KS northward according to the overnight Euro. Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm days of March arrive!

[Portastorm]

Some very light snow in the Panhandle and NE Oklahoma tomorrow night. Next Friday's snow from central KS northward according to the overnight Euro. Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm days of March arrive!

Don't you mean "Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm(er) days of March arrive!"??

It's not like February has been very cold, buddy ...

[dhweather]

Each day is getting longer, more sun, and is getting warmer. We'll be lucky to get another freeze or two this winter. I highly doubt we get any wintry precip in Dallas.

[wxman57]

Some very light snow in the Panhandle and NE Oklahoma tomorrow night. Next Friday's snow from central KS northward according to the overnight Euro. Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm days of March arrive!

Don't you mean "Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm(er) days of March arrive!"??

It's not like February has been very cold, buddy ...

Warm = 80+ degrees to me. IAH is reporting temps 5.8F above normal so far this month. It's less cold than normal, but not warm yet. Another weekend where it will be barely tolerable to ride. Way better than what the GFS was indicating a week ago (cold, cloudy, with snow not far to our north).

[Portastorm]

Incidentally, here is a photo taken last night outside of the Portastorm Weather Center. An angry mob has gathered wanting to know what happened to the "Winter of Wxman57's Discontent" and whether or not it will snow or sleet in Austin before Spring arrives.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Some very light snow in the Panhandle and NE Oklahoma tomorrow night. Next Friday's snow from central KS northward according to the overnight Euro. Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm days of March arrive!

Don't you mean "Just 2 more weeks of February and the warm(er) days of March arrive!"??

It's not like February has been very cold, buddy ...

Warm = 80+ degrees to me. IAH is reporting temps 5.8F above normal so far this month. It's less cold than normal, but not warm yet. Another weekend where it will be barely tolerable to ride. Way better than what the GFS was indicating a week ago (cold, cloudy, with snow not far to our north).

His definition of warm and hot is so precise yet bone chilling cold is defined by him as any temp below 50F !

Please Oslo give him cold!!!! (my definition of it ).

[wxman57]

Correction, bone-chilling cold = below 60F. I rarely bike in such cold. Only with a clear sky and light wind will I venture out on my bike if the temperature is below 60F. And then only with heavy tights, insulated jersey, hat and full-finger gloves (possibly to include neoprene face mask). My wife is from Chicago and she lived in Thunder Bay, Ontario for a while. She has the same opinion of "cold" as I do.

Looks like a high in the upper 50s here Saturday and low to mid 60s Sunday. Should be clear, though. May be rideable.

[orangeblood]

Each day is getting longer, more sun, and is getting warmer. We'll be lucky to get another freeze or two this winter. I highly doubt we get any wintry precip in Dallas.

You'll probably see some flakes flying around tomorrow morning in Dallas.....

[Ntxw]

I am still wondering why the models are trying to send the big storm to the lakes (assuming the blocking high and low are legit). I only see two options based on what they are showing and none of them are showing either.

[Tireman4]

Two things. One, I just gotta know (if you want this in a PM, I get it). Wxman 57, in the Summer from Hell (2011), did you get a lot of riding in? I do not remember you discussing it much. The very tail end of that summer, I was a beaten and broken runner. Just dead. Second, does March look cooler as of now?

[wxman57]

Two things. One, I just gotta know (if you want this in a PM, I get it). Wxman 57, in the Summer from Hell (2011), did you get a lot of riding in? I do not remember you discussing it much. The very tail end of that summer, I was a beaten and broken runner. Just dead. Second, does March look cooler as of now?

Sure. The heat didn't bother me at all. We rode with the temperature at 100F or more. There were a few times when it would have been refreshing to get hit by a passing shower, but we still rode about 100 miles a week in 2011. We just start earlier (9am) vs. 11am-noon in winter. As for the second question - cooler than what?

Speaking of winter, here's the 12Z Euro snow forecast for 3am tomorrow to 3am Saturday. Just a trace of snow in the Panhandle:



And here's the forecast for next Thursday's storm. Keep in mind that amounts are in millimeters of liquid. 25mm = 1 inch = about 10" snow. Pretty heavy snow central KS to Nebraska.

[gboudx]

Two things. One, I just gotta know (if you want this in a PM, I get it). Wxman 57, in the Summer from Hell (2011), did you get a lot of riding in? I do not remember you discussing it much. The very tail end of that summer, I was a beaten and broken runner. Just dead.

I run and bike. Biking in the heat is easier than running. With biking, you at least have the breeze you create by riding. So while you're sweating in the hot, humid Houston summer, your body can't cool down as quickly when running. Whereas on a bike, the constant breeze helps the cooling process. But it's still hot and you need lots of fluids. I buy this stuff called EX5 from a company in Louisiana. It has a much higher potassium content than traditional sports drinks. But I suppose this is off-topic enough, even though there's not much topic going on anyway.

[Portastorm]

Each day is getting longer, more sun, and is getting warmer. We'll be lucky to get another freeze or two this winter. I highly doubt we get any wintry precip in Dallas.

You'll probably see some flakes flying around tomorrow morning in Dallas.....

Not that this proclamation is all that earth shattering ... but I'm calling it for anyone (in Texas) at or below 31 degrees north latitude. Winter is essentially over for those areas outside a freeze or two. It's done. Sadly. Actually, it's been done for awhile.

[South Texas Storms]

I am still wondering why the models are trying to send the big storm to the lakes (assuming the blocking high and low are legit). I only see two options based on what they are showing and none of them are showing either.

When do you think the models will start sending next week's storm more to the south? Maybe by tomorrow's runs?

[South Texas Storms]

Not that this proclamation is all that earth shattering ... but I'm calling it for anyone (in Texas) at or below 31 degrees north latitude. Winter is essentially over for those areas outside a freeze or two. It's done. Sadly. Actually, it's been done for awhile.

I'm not gonna give up hope for possible winter precip. here in College Station until the end of February. I'm giving it 2 more weeks.

[Ntxw]

I am still wondering why the models are trying to send the big storm to the lakes (assuming the blocking high and low are legit). I only see two options based on what they are showing and none of them are showing either.

When do you think the models will start sending next week's storm more to the south? Maybe by tomorrow's runs?

Usually within 120 hours so late this weekend. If the -NAO the ops and ensembles are showing is not real then yes a lakes cutter is physically possible and what they show now will happen. However if it is real I don't care if it's Sandy, it's not going to drill into a block.

A southern track would likely include Texas a part of what I think will be a tornado outbreak in the south.

[wxman57]

All this talk of biking in hot weather and winter being over is quite heart-warming (no pun intended). Winter can be pretty sneaky sometimes, so you have to watch out for it this time of year. Just when you think it's gone, it rears its ugly head again in late February or March (or even April).

[Cyclenall]

My wife is from Chicago and she lived in Thunder Bay, Ontario for a while. She has the same opinion of "cold" as I do.

That's interesting, your wife lived in Canada for a time...has she said that it thundered a lot while in Thunder Bay?

Usually within 120 hours so late this weekend. If the -NAO the ops and ensembles are showing is not real then yes a lakes cutter is physically possible and what they show now will happen. However if it is real I don't care if it's Sandy, it's not going to drill into a block.

A southern track would likely include Texas a part of what I think will be a tornado outbreak in the south.

The bolded part is what I'm most into at this point. Which date is this for again? There was one around 19-20 and then another that recently came up on the models for the 22-24 period.

[weatherdude1108]

The ewx forecast is pretty depressing in the rain department, although we may get one more freeze out of Winter. The CPC has a garden variety of temps and precip across Texas, with a 4 out of 5 confidence rating over the next two weeks in the CPC's chosen model percentages. I take long-range predictions with less than a grain of salt lately.

Whatever the case, I don't care for the "Fire Weather Watch" blurb at the end of this, especially going into Spring. Same old neverending story.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
316 PM CST THU FEB 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. SKIES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT BUT THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA SHOULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT TIME TO WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. A DRY
AIRMASS AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A HARD FREEZE ACROSS THE
HILL COUNTRY.

WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO SOUTHERLY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET AND APPROACHING UPPER
LOW WILL LEAD TO A BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S...WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID-FEBRUARY BUT STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW RECORD HIGHS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO CHANCES FOR
RAIN ON MONDAY WITH THIS FRONT...WHILE THE ECMWF PREFERS TO KEEP
PRECIP FOCUSED WELL EAST OF OUR AREA. HAVE KEPT A SHORT WINDOW OF
LOW-END POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...BUT OTHERWISE
ANTICIPATE A DRY FROPA.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING EARLY WEDNESDAY WILL ENABLE A SLOW
WARMING TREND IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT ON THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR RAIN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE PERSISTENT DRY AIR AND
A SERIES OF DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF
ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.