Texas Winter 2012-2013

[hriverajr]

People should really wish for cold and wet. Early Warmth will probably only result in more drought. East Texas has been getting some rain, southwest Texas has not. Not going to be a good situation around here.

[Ntxw]

The bolded part is what I'm most into at this point. Which date is this for again? There was one around 19-20 and then another that recently came up on the models for the 22-24 period.

22-24, jet streak is 100+ kts on the models. If the gulf opens (likely will) long lived violent tornadoes are quite possible in the usual suspect regions of east Texas, arklatex, lower miss basin, and mid south. Blizzard on the other end

[weatherdude1108]

People should really wish for cold and wet. Early Warmth will probably only result in more drought. East Texas has been getting some rain, southwest Texas has not. Not going to be a good situation around here.

I've been wishing for COLD and WET for a LOOOONNNNNGGGGG time. I'm trying to stay upbeat without thinking it's time to move to Alaska. The cold/wet is not only better for the short-term/long-term water situation, it's more fun IMO to huddle up to a fire, looking out at the cold rain/sleet/snow with your soup, chili, cocoa, smores, and/or whatever else works.

[Ntxw]

People should really wish for cold and wet. Early Warmth will probably only result in more drought. East Texas has been getting some rain, southwest Texas has not. Not going to be a good situation around here.

It is the Pacific Ocean! We need El Nino badly, these La nina, la nadas back to backs are brutal especially western half of the state since the gulf is not their source region. Until the Pacific changes, nothing will change long term for the high plains and west Texas. People calling for El Nino to dominate because of a warmer climate even in cold PDO is clearly wrong. In the past 6 years we've had ONE El Nino and two super Ninas the rest weak Ninas or cold neutral, not good. Then you have the feedback problem, drought begets warmth and warmth begets droughts, deadly loop until something changes.

[vbhoutex]

People should really wish for cold and wet. Early Warmth will probably only result in more drought. East Texas has been getting some rain, southwest Texas has not. Not going to be a good situation around here.

Some of East Texas has been getting rain. Most of that has been East and Northeast of the Houston metro area. I know Kelly in Beaumont is swamped. I am not anywhere near that in W. Houston. In fact we are still in moderate drought. Cold and wet would be fine. Wet would be even better. Unfortunately a number of things are pointing the wrong way for us to be on that side of the coin for the foreseeable future. Hotter and dryer than normal will not be a surprise I am afraid.

[dhweather]

People should really wish for cold and wet. Early Warmth will probably only result in more drought. East Texas has been getting some rain, southwest Texas has not. Not going to be a good situation around here.

I've been saying that I expect another freaking Nina this Summer, with an intensifying drought. I'd love to be wrong, but year after year of drought has been a violent and cylclical pattern for most of the last six years.

[Lane]

Sorry to ask this question in the Texas thread. However at the start of the week like Texas, Alabama looked like it may see some sort of winter precipitation. Then poof it went until the 18z nam then it was more confined to the coast. Now the 0z GFS and 0z nam show a lot more moisture for my area. Is this believable or just an error in the model run? I noticed someone on this thread said tonight’s run would be better since it is within 48hrs.

[vbhoutex]

Sorry to ask this question in the Texas thread. However at the start of the week like Texas, Alabama looked like it may see some sort of winter precipitation. Then poof it went until the 18z nam then it was more confined to the coast. Now the 0z GFS and 0z nam show a lot more moisture for my area. Is this believable or just an error in the model run? I noticed someone on this thread said tonight’s run would be better since it is within 48hrs.

Normally the closer it is to the time of the "event" the better the model is going to be at forecasting it. As the time of an event nears the model will have more detailed information available to it to help with the prediction due to the fact the weather upstream of where the model is forecasting for has or is occurring and that will affect what happens downstream and that data goes into the model making it more detailed and more reliable. Basically the answer is yes to your original question.

[Ntxw]

Sorry to ask this question in the Texas thread. However at the start of the week like Texas, Alabama looked like it may see some sort of winter precipitation. Then poof it went until the 18z nam then it was more confined to the coast. Now the 0z GFS and 0z nam show a lot more moisture for my area. Is this believable or just an error in the model run? I noticed someone on this thread said tonight’s run would be better since it is within 48hrs.

I don't know if it's trustworthy or not but yes, the GFS is painting snow flurries all the way to I-10 in Louisiana, Ms, Alabama, and Texas in the next 24-36 hours. Surface temps will be quite warm though so don't expect anything to stick if it does.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The GFS looks like it has some flurries or possibly a dusting tomorrow night in my area, north of Wichita Falls along the river.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Interesting radar returns right now. Virga?

http://i.wund.com/auto/iphone/geo/TouchMap/index.html?lat=32.985683&lon=-96.739616#optionBox

[Lane]

Thank you for the info.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

quite a drop in temperatures up here....currently -18C

[wxman57]

Sorry to ask this question in the Texas thread. However at the start of the week like Texas, Alabama looked like it may see some sort of winter precipitation. Then poof it went until the 18z nam then it was more confined to the coast. Now the 0z GFS and 0z nam show a lot more moisture for my area. Is this believable or just an error in the model run? I noticed someone on this thread said tonight’s run would be better since it is within 48hrs.

I don't know if it's trustworthy or not but yes, the GFS is painting snow flurries all the way to I-10 in Louisiana, Ms, Alabama, and Texas in the next 24-36 hours. Surface temps will be quite warm though so don't expect anything to stick if it does.

The 06Z GFS indicates a mid-level cloud deck over east/SE TX from which it's suggesting some precip may fall tonight. Air is sub-freezing in the cloud deck, but it's above freezing and drier below 5000-6000 ft. Could be some virga will fall.

[Portastorm]

Picture of a sign reportedly hung this morning on the doors of the Portastorm Weather Center Winter Weather field office.



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[Ntxw]

Well it's not the southern trend I was looking for but stalling/shearing the big storm next week in the plains is a viable option with the block. Maybe it will force the next system south, who knows but it's a long shot at this point. Maybe we can get PWC back to work anomalously. Looks likely the -NAO is going to dominate the pattern.

It was a nice jog this morning cool, brisk conditions.

[wxman57]

12Z Euro has the snow bullsye in northern KS and southern SD next week. Southern extent to south Kansas near the OK border. No indication of any TX snow. GFS agrees. Now, if we can just get some warm air into Texas in the coming weeks...

[orangeblood]

With arguably the coldest/wettest part of this Texas winter coming up over the next two weeks, I gotta admit I'm pretty disappointed in the PWC for quitting on winter so soon. There is big potential on the playing field for a Texas winter storm late next weekend, 24-25th time frame even down into central Texas. You've waited this long, what's another couple of weeks going to hurt?

[Ntxw]

With arguably the coldest/wettest part of this Texas winter coming up over the next two weeks, I gotta admit I'm pretty disappointed in the PWC for quitting on winter so soon. There is big potential on the playing field for a Texas winter storm late next weekend, 24-25th time frame even down into central Texas. You've waited this long, what's another couple of weeks going to hurt?

Once we get that Hudson block locked into play, he will come back. Once you taste the chill you always go for more! 2-3 SD below normal west based -NAO is not to be trifled with!

Edit: And for the record I'm not giving up on next week's beastly storm. The fact that the models went to a different scenario today shows they haven't the right idea yet of how it will play out.

[orangeblood]

With arguably the coldest/wettest part of this Texas winter coming up over the next two weeks, I gotta admit I'm pretty disappointed in the PWC for quitting on winter so soon. There is big potential on the playing field for a Texas winter storm late next weekend, 24-25th time frame even down into central Texas. You've waited this long, what's another couple of weeks going to hurt?

Once we get that Hudson block locked into play, he will come back. Once you taste the chill you always go for more! 2-3 SD below normal west based -NAO is not to be trifled with!

Yep, the NAO looks like its going to be the teleconnection King over the next few weeks forcing storms much further south than normal. With building heights over southern Canada into the Great Lakes and new snow pack in the central plains, I like our chances.