Texas Winter 2012-2013

[GaryHughes]

The Gfs 06z+54 is still showing snow over North Texas, although not as much? Has it lost it's mind? ??

[wxman57]

I hate to admit this. I really do not want to, but the Dark Lord of Summer has pushed me over to it. I think, for all practical purposes ( in this person's non meteorological mind) , winter is over. I am sorry. I so want to be wrong, but this feels like March. Sigh.

My vitex bushes are leafing out. On out bike ride yesterday we noticed all of the azaleas are in bloom across the city. The plants know what's going on. Now if we could just get some reasonable temps in here (80+). It was so cold Saturday that I didn't even go outside. Yesterday was tolerable on the bike with a heavy long-sleeve jersey and leg warmers. Enough of this in-between weather. Bring on the heat!

[wxman57]

The Gfs 06z+54 is still showing snow over North Texas? Has it lost it's mind? ??

Yes, it has. Increasing southeast flow with the freezing line in Kansas and snow in NE TX? We don't generally get pre-frontal snow in Texas.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

You fellows that want snow ....... grow tropical plants like the Floridians do in your yards! That for sure will catch the eye of Old Man Winter!!!

[Portastorm]

The Gfs 06z+54 is still showing snow over North Texas? Has it lost it's mind? ??

Yes, it has. Increasing southeast flow with the freezing line in Kansas and snow in NE TX? We don't generally get pre-frontal snow in Texas.

The 6z GFS run starts and ends with insanity. Not only does it show pre-frontal snow for Texas early in the run but it also sends a Polar airmass south into Texas late in the run (about 12-13 days out) with an 850mb isotherm into the northern Gulf. This run is about as reliable as Tony Romo in a big game (sorry Cowboys fans).

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is doing it again. More snow on Wednesday with SE winds ahead of a cold front. Certainly not a typical snow set up for Texas.

[Portastorm]

Heh, I'm sure the 12z GFS run will get those who haven't jumped the Texas Winter ship excited. I see major very strong cold fronts in the 10-15 day period, the latter featuring a 1047mb(!) high coming down from eastern Montana. Some precip as well. Ah, if only ...

[hriverajr]

Yep, and once the time frame gets closer, the cold weather chances fade away. Been that way all winter season. BTW early heat will really screw us over drought wise. Early warmth and rain does not go hand and hand I-35 and west.

[Portastorm]

Yep, and once the time frame gets closer, the cold weather chances fade away. Been that way all winter season. BTW early heat will really screw us over drought wise. Early warmth and rain does not go hand and hand I-35 and west.

Those of us along and west of the I-35 corridor may have be rooting this coming summer for an active TUTT low season and a tropical disturbance or two to get our rainfall if it doesn't come this spring.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

I was going to say I'll do my best to send my cold your way.....in return if you get snow I expect to see you fellows out there in your shorts and flip flops!

Sans shirts (except for the ladies)......lets see how tough you Texans really are!
I've seen fellows from up here wearing the above in -40 weather.....I've not yet seen a Texan do that even in your cold *cough* winters.


Sigh except you tropical blooded fellows are sending your winds my way (and making it feel even colder).

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

12Z GFS is doing it again. More snow on Wednesday with SE winds ahead of a cold front. Certainly not a typical snow set up for Texas.]

hmmmmmmm

[Ntxw]

Twisterdata is off a lot. I like to use earl Barker's site which uses a better method of calculating snowfall, doesn't have anything.

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overla ... TIONID=FWS

[Ntxw]

After viewing all the model runs over the weekend, here's a little thought from all that mess. Texas (east) should see a good soaking of rains by the end of this month from several systems. The -NAO is still and will be the main driver of the pattern (cannot send systems to the lakes) so all storms eventually has two options, either curve up into the northern plains and get shredded by the ridge or dive underneath in a suppressed manner. The second is the better option for the southern plains to get wintry weather if any.

By late next week we transition from -PNA to +PNA with the NAO remaining very negative still and it's during this transition period that sends storms about as far south as they can go and head into the eastern conus. This is our biggest and final shot (in meteorological winter). The MJO is in the warm phases but will fade and become incoherent in the dead circle. No signs of a +AO so I wouldn't toot the warm start to March just yet.

[newtotex]

I just noticed something while looking at a weather forcast for when I go to Corpus...They have only been to freezing once this whole winter with a low of 29deg. Is that accurate? I didnt realize it was so infrequent down there.

[Ntxw]

I just noticed something while looking at a weather forcast for when I go to Corpus...They have only been to freezing once this whole winter with a low of 29deg. Is that accurate? I didnt realize it was so infrequent down there.

They average about 5.4 days a year of freezing temps but it rarely goes below 30 so freezes are infrequent. Mid 20s was the coldest in almost 20 years for Corpus during the arctic blast of Feb 2011, so in the grand scheme it's not unusual to see only a few days below freezing there, but it certainly has been mild that way this winter.

[wxman57]

I just noticed something while looking at a weather forcast for when I go to Corpus...They have only been to freezing once this whole winter with a low of 29deg. Is that accurate? I didnt realize it was so infrequent down there.

You can check the Corpus Christi monthly reports on the NWS website:

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=crp

Click the radio button next to "Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6)" then select "Archived Data" in the timeframe column. Choose what month to look at. Corpus Christi reported one freeze (29F on December 21st) this year. There were 3 freezes in Corpus Christi last winter (25F, 30F, 30F). It's not that unusual that there are no freezes there in some winters. That even happens occasionally in Houston.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I just noticed something while looking at a weather forcast for when I go to Corpus...They have only been to freezing once this whole winter with a low of 29deg. Is that accurate? I didnt realize it was so infrequent down there.

That is correct about this winter and we must not have been that low or below freezing for a very short time because not even my most sensitive cold weather plants have leaf burn. No frost either this year so far which you can get with temps above freezing. In 2009 we had multiple freezes/frosts which required me to replant some of my tropical vegetation.

I'm with Wxman57's crusade to put an end to the so called winter of his discontent. High School baseball season is in full swing tonight and I can't stand watching my oldest who starts his first year at that level playing ball while wearing a light jacket. Bring on the heat so I can wear real baseball spectator clothing ( shorts, short sleeves, and sandals). At the above mentioned year 2009, while he was still playing Little League, I was wearing heavy jackets well into April for some of his night games. If someone wants to post a "winter cancel" I will not cry as long as a "Hurricane Season cancel" is placed at the same time.

[Texas Snowman]

If this snowpack verifies, this might become the spring of Wxman 57's discontent. If we get our usual late winter/early spring frontal passages, just think about the northerly winds flowing into Texas off of that mid-continent glacier.

[wxman57]

Yes, that snow map is of great concern to me. It appears I'll need to generate a long period of strong southerly winds from the central Gulf to the Central Plains to get rid of all that nasty snow. Certainly don't like the 12Z forecast of near 30F with a high in the 40s on March 5th. Fortunately, it's proven to be clueless at that distance in recent runs (past month or more).

[somethingfunny]

From the new Fort Worth AFD:

.LONG TERM...
/SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY. HAVE LEFT SATURDAYS FORECAST DRY DUE TO LACK OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL
BE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING
FOR THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS MOVES IT THROUGH FASTER AND LEAVES THE
TROUGH OPEN...THE ECMWF CUTS THE LOW OFF AND DIGS IT FARTHER
SOUTH. THE GFS IS ALSO DRIER. THE ECMWF DROPS A COLD FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA AND DEVELOPS PRECIP MONDAY. HAVE MOVED THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIP BACK SLIGHTLY TO LINE UP WITH THE TIMING OF THE
ECMWF...AND LEFT POPS THE SAME.

Is there anything interesting between the lines here?