Texas Winter 2012-2013

[dhweather]

With temps in the 40's for lows, it'll be a chance of a cold rain at best. Like today, odds are our friend the cap will make certain that we do not see any precip in the metroplex.

[South Texas Storms]

Man, there have been a lot of pessimistic posts in here lately. The models are showing several chances of rain through the end of February so at least we are getting rain chances every few days. It's not really like the drought is making a big comeback all across Texas. The long range CFS is showing the wet weather pattern continuing into early March as well. Since we aren't getting the cooler temperatures, at least we are getting regular rain chances! I would prefer lots of rain over lots of cold weather anytime.
Also, the 6-14 day outlook from the CPC is showing below average temperatures across Texas. We need more positivity in here!

[Portastorm]

Man, there have been a lot of pessimistic posts in here lately. The models are showing several chances of rain through the end of February so at least we are getting rain chances every few days. It's not really like the drought is making a big comeback all across Texas. The long range CFS is showing the wet weather pattern continuing into early March as well. Since we aren't getting the cooler temperatures, at least we are getting regular rain chances! I would prefer lots of rain over lots of cold weather anytime.
Also, the 6-14 day outlook from the CPC is showing below average temperatures across Texas. We need more positivity in here!

Amen, South Texas Storms! Like I posted yesteday ... the plus side for us is that we're into a very active pattern for the next few weeks with storm systems every 3-4 days. With the noisy subtropical jet, it's almost like a Nino pattern. Plenty of opportunity for rain.

You'd think we were locked into a zonal pattern from some of these posts. Far from it.

[Ntxw]

Here are some rainfall totals this year for various Texas cities since January 1st (in inches)

DFW: 5.45 Normal: 3.78
Houston: 3.91 Normal: 5.42
Austin: 3.31 Normal: 3.74
San Antonio: 2.92 Normal: 2.86
Del Rio: 1.33 Normal: 1.23
Tyler: 4.91 Normal: 5.49
Texarkana: 4.89 Normal: 5.88

So aside from the metroplex everyone else is running near or below normal. Hopefully the next two weeks will add on more rain. Building soil moisture is key to preventing a torching spring and summer. The main ingredient from going towards a normal heat to intense heat is very well correlated to rain within the next 3 months.

Edit: Word from the euro weeklies suggest the -NAO (west based) will stick around well into March. It may be in one of those cycles where it can lasts for weeks to months at a time, we'll see. If that is the case no shortage of precip chances.

[Ptarmigan]

Man, there have been a lot of pessimistic posts in here lately. The models are showing several chances of rain through the end of February so at least we are getting rain chances every few days. It's not really like the drought is making a big comeback all across Texas. The long range CFS is showing the wet weather pattern continuing into early March as well. Since we aren't getting the cooler temperatures, at least we are getting regular rain chances! I would prefer lots of rain over lots of cold weather anytime.
Also, the 6-14 day outlook from the CPC is showing below average temperatures across Texas. We need more positivity in here!

I would not mind a wet winter. In fact I would trade a cold winter for a wet winter.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes, that snow map is of great concern to me. It appears I'll need to generate a long period of strong southerly winds from the central Gulf to the Central Plains to get rid of all that nasty snow. Certainly don't like the 12Z forecast of near 30F with a high in the 40s on March 5th. Fortunately, it's proven to be clueless at that distance in recent runs (past month or more).

Snow keeps the drought at bay. Last winter had very little snow cover which gave way to drought.

[weatherdude1108]

Man, there have been a lot of pessimistic posts in here lately. The models are showing several chances of rain through the end of February so at least we are getting rain chances every few days. It's not really like the drought is making a big comeback all across Texas. The long range CFS is showing the wet weather pattern continuing into early March as well. Since we aren't getting the cooler temperatures, at least we are getting regular rain chances! I would prefer lots of rain over lots of cold weather anytime.
Also, the 6-14 day outlook from the CPC is showing below average temperatures across Texas. We need more positivity in here!

Amen, South Texas Storms! Like I posted yesteday ... the plus side for us is that we're into a very active pattern for the next few weeks with storm systems every 3-4 days. With the noisy subtropical jet, it's almost like a Nino pattern. Plenty of opportunity for rain.

You'd think we were locked into a zonal pattern from some of these posts. Far from it.

AMEN to that! Glad someone chimed in about the pissy mood around here!
ALWAYS looking forward to WET.

[weatherdude1108]

Was a weird day today. Started off humid, breezy with sprinkles, and ended with sunny, breezy and desert-DRY. Temp rose to 83 degrees and and humidity dropped to 21% at my house after the infamous dry line pushed through.

[gboudx]

From DFW NWS for tomorrow morning. "so you're saying there's a chance".

HOWEVER
MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
GETTING INTO THE MIX AS RAPID MOISTURE RETURN IN DRY AIR WILL LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WET-BULB COOLING ALOFT.

SOME RUNS OF THE GFS HAVE EXPLICITLY FORECAST SNOW NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX...WHILE OTHER MODELS...NAMELY THE 06Z NAM THIS
MORNING...SIMPLY SHOW H850 TEMPERATURES OF -2 TO -3 DEG C OVER THE
DFW AREA AS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS. -2 TO -3 DEG C SEEMS PRETTY
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE OVERALL TENDENCY FOR STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE LLJ...BUT FOR ARGUMENTS SAKE LETS ASSUME WET
BULBING DOES TAKE H850 TEMPS DOWN BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW MORNING.
IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
RADIATING HEAT BACK TO THE SURFACE...WILL KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. EVEN THE NAM WITH ITS VERY COOL H850 TEMPERATURES
CONTINUES TO FORECAST RAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS SNOW ALOFT IS VERY
LIKELY TO MELT IN THE 2 KFT LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR RIGHT
ABOVE THE SURFACE. AT ANY RATE...THERES STILL NO SNOW IN THIS
FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE IN THE ABOVE FREEZING NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
HIGH AT THIS TIME. OF COURSE WE WILL WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
EARLY ONSET OF PRECIPITATION CLOSELY TOMORROW MORNING AS THE
EFFECTS OF WET-BULBING ARE NOT ALWAYS HANDLED WELL IN THE MODELS.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Was a weird day today. Started off humid, breezy with sprinkles, and ended with sunny, breezy and desert-DRY. Temp rose to 83 degrees and and humidity dropped to 21% at my house after the infamous dry line pushed through.

Yea, it was amazing to watch the power of Positive-Tilt sweeping all those flat-bottomed fair weather cumulous off to the East with a dry dirty westerly wind. I wish I had taken a picture. Finally, far off in the eastern distance, I watched some of them stack into cumulonimbus (around Texarkana I guess).

[horselattitudesfarm]

From the San Antonio NWS:

"THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...MAINLY NORTH OF A
LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO BLANCO TO LEXINGTON. THIS INCLUDES THE
AUSTIN METRO AREA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF KICKS OUT TO THE NE
OVER THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING IT WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. A SQUALL LINE/LINEAR
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED
PACIFIC COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS."

Negative Tilt........Did I read NEGATIVE TILT!!.......I can't believe my eyes.....so I had to reread it a few more times and highlight it in colors and post it here!! Now I believe it!!

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah! Interesting. Will this be another prediction that does not come to fruition? I guess we'll find out. I could personally do without hail, although there is water in it.

[wxman57]

Pfffft! Testing 1, 2, 3. Is this forum still working? Where is everyone? Not one 80F deg day forecast for Houston in the next 2 weeks. With all the cold weather around I'd have thought it would be more active here.

[aggiecutter]

Pfffft! Testing 1, 2, 3. Is this forum still working? Where is everyone? Not one 80F deg day forecast for Houston in the next 2 weeks. With all the cold weather around I'd have thought it would be more active here.

The long range GFS does have several chances for wintry precipitation in the long range for NE Texas. Speaking of the GFS, there was a segment on the Weather Channel this past weekend, comparing it to the EURO. Of course, the EURO has been more accurate this past winter when compared to the GFS. At the end of the segment, the new head of the NWS was interviewed about the shortcomings of the GFS, particularly its shortcomings in forecasting the medium and long ranges. He said the current GFS algorithm was currently being overhauled, although he didn't go into any specifics. However, he did say after the current overhaul of the GFS algorithm that it would be a much more efficient-accurate model, similar to the EURO. He went onto say that the changes would be implemented soon.

[Ntxw]

Over the past week we've seen the models gradually shift south with ejection. It was first in Nebraska/Colorado and now expected to come out in the Texas panhandle. It will still curve north but when this turn happens can present some changes especially for our friends in Oklahoma. Will be a very cold rain for much of north Texas at the least and thunderstorms to the south.

FW snippet this afternoon

***
A NEW ADDITION TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING IS THE INCLUSION OF A MENTION OF SLEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE REGION. THE MODELS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A COOLING OF 850 MB TEMPERATURES AS THE RAIN STARTS
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER WILL
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT LEAST A 3 KFT DEPTH...ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF WINTER PRECIPITATION.
SNOW WOULD LIKELY MELT IN THIS WARM SURFACE LAYER...HOWEVER SLEET
MAY FALL FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME TO REACH THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
IN STRONGER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...WILL
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SLEET MIXED WITH THE RAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO
SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY THAT VERY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET COULD OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
THUNDERSTORM BUT WILL NOT MENTION ACCUMULATIONS AND DO NO EXPECT
IMPACTS.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
FIRST UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE REGION BUT
MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE OVER THE
STILL COOL SURFACE LAYER. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE STRONGER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER CALIFORNIA WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SURFACE
WARMING ON WEDNESDAY EXCEPT FOR IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE
DEWPOINTS WILL START TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN OVERALL LULL IN THE RAIN ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS WE WAIT FOR THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGER LIFT FROM THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING.

[Portastorm]

Oh my goodness ... anyone seen that 18z GFS run?!?!

Unfortunately I'm way too busy at work to make the kind of post I'd like ... but for now I'll say that I *may* have been wrong to give up on winter in Texas below 31 degrees north latitude. There's an awful lot of excitement in the GFS and Euro between now and March 5th.

[orangeblood]

The latest GFS run should get this thread going again. It backs up what the latest Euro long range is showing in the 10-15 day range....a mix of cold Canadian/Arctic air getting trapped underneath the huge Greenland Block creating the coldest pattern, relative to averages, this season.

[dhweather]

I think the last paragraph of the FWD discussion says it all:


TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A COLD OUTBREAK OF AIR IN THE NEXT 7-9 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW NIGHTS WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED OVER PART OF THE AREA.

[Ntxw]

Pineapple express anybody? Rain the next 24 hours looks to come from the STJ and not the parent storm which arrives Thursday.

[Portastorm]

I think the last paragraph of the FWD discussion says it all:


TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO VARY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES BUT AT
THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A COLD OUTBREAK OF AIR IN THE NEXT 7-9 DAYS.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE A FEW NIGHTS WHERE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHED OVER PART OF THE AREA.

We'll see dhweather. You're in the "winter's over" camp and I've made that proclamation as well. But if these model trends keep up for the next few days along with the teleconnection signals ... we may be eating some crow by late month.