Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

hi Luis
I notice the past few days have been a little hazy here.
Are we starting to get some Saharan dust coming our way?

[cycloneye]

hi Luis
I notice the past few days have been a little hazy here.
Are we starting to get some Saharan dust coming our way?

Hi Barbara. Yes,some haze is in the Caribbean as the trade winds are somewhat strong at this time.

[msbee]

Thanks Luis

[Macrocane]

An update on the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the Feb 16-18 event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2300720#p2300720

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail thru the week in the NE Caribbean islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
435 AM AST TUE FEB 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
MAINTAIN MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK. AT UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER LOCALLY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESS...IN
RESPOND TO A DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO EXIT THE
EASTERN U.S COAST BY THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK...RELAXING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY FRIDAY...AS AREA WILL BE UNDER A COL REGION. FOR
THE WEEKEND...COMPUTER MODELS STILL SUGGEST A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN FACT...SJU-GFS
26/00Z COMPUTER MODEL SHOWS THIS FRONT AFFECTING THE REGION WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THE MODEL HAS BEEN VERY
PERSISTENT BRINGING THIS FRONT TO THE LOCAL AREA. AT LEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENTS ARE FORECAST BY COMPUTER
MODELS TO AFFECT THE LOCAL REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
TJBQ THROUGH ABOUT 26/21Z. TJSJ 26/00Z INDICATED AN EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW UP TO 20 KNOTS FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 10K FEET...
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 10-25K FEET AND WEST NORTHWESTERLY
AND STRONGER ABOVE 25K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY 41053 IN SAN JUAN IS SHOWING SEAS FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 7 TO 8 FEET FEET WITH PERIODS AROUND 15 SECONDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN BREAKING WAVES OF 13-15 FEET AND LOCALLY HIGHER.
THEREFORE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST 3 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 73 / 10 0 0 0
STT 84 73 85 73 / 10 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

February 26 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

There was a 5.0 quake in the Mona Channel and I felt it here in San Juan.Go to the Geology forum to the Caribbean seismic thread for more information.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&hilit=&p=2300767#p2300767

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST TUE FEB 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
CAP WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AREA INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A
FAIR AND STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST
TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
WHICH WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO.
WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF PUERTO RICO AS AN EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW PREVAILS.

A WETTER PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL REACH THE MONA PASSAGE
MONDAY AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUE-
THU OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTERNOON LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE
IN AND AROUND TJBQ...TIST AND TNCM. ANY POSSIBLE ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BE DONE BEFORE 26/23Z. NIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET
ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS CANCELLED. LATEST DATA OBTAINED FROM
BUOYS...41043 AND 41053...SUGGESTED THAT SWELLS HAVE CONTINUED TO
SUBSIDE. HOWEVER...CONTINUE TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS DUE TO ISOLATED BREAKING WAVE ABOVE HIGH SURF CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 72 83 / 10 0 0 0
STT 73 85 73 85 / 10 0 10 10

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
501 AM AST WED FEB 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH EVOLVES OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS A MID TO
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN DOMINATES THE
LOCAL WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS EVERY DAY
BUT WILL BE MAINLY ISOLATED AND THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
LIGHT. THE RIDGE ALOFT BREAKS DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ERODING THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND PROMOTING MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AT THE SAME
TIME...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL SUSTAIN A MOISTURE
SURGE ON TUESDAY...INCREASING THE RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN USVI.
OVERALL... WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO
RAINFALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 10 15 KTS
BECOMING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING SLIGHTLY AFTER
27/16Z. ISOLD SHRA ACTIVITY POSSIBLE AFTER 27/18Z COULD BRIEFLY
AFFECT TJBQ WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THAT COULD CAUSE SOME
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LONG PERIOD NNE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND THURSDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS.
MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ONLY A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...
AND MAINLY AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY DUE TO DRY
FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LESSENING
THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT BUT STILL PRETTY DRY. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 73 / 20 0 0 0
STT 85 73 85 73 / 20 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

February 27 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

It looks like the dry weather that Puerto Rico has been thru in the past few weeks will end by next Monday as a cold front arrives bringing scattered showers.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST WED FEB 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT
LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE LOCAL AREA. SURFACE FRONT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THEN
BREAK DOWN AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIR AND STABLE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNDER THE PREVAILING EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW...STILL EXPECT A FEW ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...FOLLOWED BY AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO
WHICH WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS WEST AND NORTHWEST PUERTO
RICO EACH DAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
MEANDERS EASTWARD. A WETTER PATTERN IS STILL EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL
REACH THE MONA PASSAGE MONDAY AND MOVE VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FOR THE NEXT 6 HRS WILL REMAIN
FROM EAST SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS ACROSS TAF SITES IN PR AND 10
TO 15 KTS FOR TIST...TISX...AND TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET AND A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE
WIND FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 85 72 83 / 0 0 0 10
STT 72 83 72 84 / 0 0 10 10

[Macrocane]

Guys take a look at the temperature anomlies in Central America for the next 6 days, it's gonna get cold this weekend into early next week

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry weather that the NE Caribbean islands have been thru for the past weeks will end starting on Monday as a cold front arrives.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
519 AM AST THU FEB 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSE TO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. THIS RIDGE ALOFT IS
SUSTAINING A DRY AIR MASS AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE
GREATER ANTILLES AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT THE SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL PERSIST NEAR 850 MB THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. THERE ARE ALSO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS USVI AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEKEND BASED ON THE 28/06Z GFS-SJU FORECAST. LLVL WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST UNTIL SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
PRONOUNCED SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ESTABLISH ON MONDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FORECAST
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE LOCAL AREA.
OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
PEAK AROUND 2 INCHES BY MID-WEEK AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS. OVERALL...EXPECT WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE AND BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY UNDER INFLUENCE OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT ALL LOCAL TAF
SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 28/00Z INDICATED AN EAST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW UP TO 15 KNOTS ALL THE WAY FROM THE SURFACE TO
2OK FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE 20K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...LINGERING NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE SWELLS SUBSIDE. MARINE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE CARIBBEAN PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO DRY FUELS
AND LOW HUMIDITIES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY LESSENING THE FIRE RISK SOMEWHAT BUT STILL PRETTY DRY.
A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 72 84 71 / 0 10 10 0

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

February 28 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Generally fair and windy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST THU FEB 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE FIRST OF SEVERAL POLAR TROUGHS DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH A JET SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. THE SECOND TROUGH WILL BE SHARPER AND PASS TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONGER JET. MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP
IN OVER THE WEEKEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT UPPER LEVELS...BUT AT
12-15 KFT IT DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOWER LEVELS ABOVE THE MARINE LAYER AROUND 5
KFT...ARE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY. IT IS JOINED BY MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL PASS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN A SECOND FRONT BORNE ON A
STRONGER SURFACE LOW MIGRATING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC JOINS
THE MOISTURE AND PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER PREVAILED WITH SOME CLOUDS OVER THE
CENTER AND WESTERN PART OF PUERTO RICO. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE INTO SATURDAY. BUT GFS AND NAM80 12Z MODEL DATA
WERE NOT AVAILABLE AS OF 1850Z BEYOND 60 HOURS. FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...EXPECT
A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE. MOISTURE IMPROVES CONSIDERABLY ON MONDAY AS FLOW
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGS IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF A FRONT. THEN
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST JOINS AND COVERS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THAT
WILL CULMINATE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
AM NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING FOR HEAVY AMOUNTS BUT COULD SEE A
THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO AND MOST AREAS WILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME RAIN
BY THEN FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND WILL CONTINUE AT
ALL LOCAL TAF SITES FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHEAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DECREASING AS
THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL COME DOWN TONIGHT AT
MIDNIGHT AS SWELL FROM THE NORTH EBBS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE FROM THERE UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SWINGS THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOUTH OF 40 NORTH LATITUDE
DRIVING NORTHERLY SWELL INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 84 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
STT 71 84 72 85 / 10 10 0 0

[Macrocane]

It has been very hot in Central America in the last couple of days, that's normal now that March is approaching as March, April and May are our warmest months (with November, December and January being the coldest). I will be posting the temperature in the next few days so you can see how much they drop with the very strong cold front that is coming our way.

Temperature on February 26, 2012:

On this day the highs were pretty hot but at least the lows were cool:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.5°C (31.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 21.3°C (70.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.5°C (59.9°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 7.7°C (45.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.4°C (61.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.9°C (46.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.4°C (72.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.5°C (72.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.7°C (58.5°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 33.0°C (91.4°F) Warmest since October 2, 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.8°C (80.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 37.0°C (98.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.9°C (89.4°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.3°C (73.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.3°C (97.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F) Warmest since April 4, 2012
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 37°C (99°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.9°C (84.0°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.9°C (60.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.8°C (76.6°F)

Temperatures on February 27, 2012

Both the highs and lows were warm on this day.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.7°C (62.1°F) Warmest since October 26, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 2.6°C (36.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F) Warmest since September 10, 2012
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.8°C (46.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.5°C (70.7°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.1°C (55.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30.0°C (86.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (96.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.2C (90.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 23.9°C (75.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.5°C (97.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F) Hottest since May 5, 2012
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.3°C (81.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.8°C (96.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.4°C (93.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.8°C (76.6°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A dry and warm weekend for the NE Caribbean islands is on tap.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST FRI MAR 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT...A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...SATELLITE
DERIVED PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW
NORMAL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM PUERTO RICO TO 60 WEST. IN THIS
PATTERN...NUMERICAL MODELS SUGGEST FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS UNTIL
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE REMAINS LOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES
ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ARRIVAL OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE FRONT...
MOISTURE WILL THEN START TO SURGE LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER
EASTERN HISPANOLA...MONA PASSAGE AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A WEAKENING AND VEERING OF THE TRADES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH SHOWERS AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE NORTHERN
VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE LOCAL FLYING AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TJSJ 01/00Z SOUNDING
INDICATED A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW ALL THE WAY FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND 15K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ALOFT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLOWLY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SEAS IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MODERATE NNW SWELL FOR NEXT
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 71 84 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 84 72 83 74 / 10 0 0 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with brief showers over hilly interior areas.

Tonight:  Parly cloudy and cool.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88)     Low: 23C (73F)


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. As mentioned this morning,a mainly pleasant weekend is instored for Puerto Rico and adjacent islands. But moisture will slowly increase starting on Monday as a front gets closer. Most of next week will have some scattered showers moving thru the islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
313 PM AST FRI MAR 1 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
AMERICA OVER THE LOCAL AREA AT UPPER LEVELS AND HIGH PRESSURE IS
OVER GUADELOUPE AT MID LEVELS. THESE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP TROUGH BRUSHES THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND MOVES NORTHEAST. A SHORT WAVE WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE TO 80 KNOTS BY FRIDAY...BUT THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL LINGER INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...DRY AIR REMAINS IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND MAKING MONDAY A TRANSITION DAY INTO A WETTER PATTERN. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA EARLY IN THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT
BE ABLE TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR.
A SECOND FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND THROUGH THE AREA EARLY ON
FRIDAY...BUT WHERE IT STOPS IS NOT YET CLEAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ECHOS ON THE RADAR CONSISTED MAINLY OF A FEW SMOKE
PLUMES. FLOW WAS TURNING SOUTHEAST...BUT SEA BREEZES WERE COMMON
ON ALL COASTS. ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY UNTIL MONDAY.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL APPROACH THE AREA BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY FROM THE APPROACHING FRONT BUT DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
ENTRENCHED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS
SOUTHEAST FLOW DOMINATES. MOISTURE NO LONGER LOOKS AS WIDESPREAD
OVER THE AREA DURING THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK AS PREVIOUS RUNS
HAD INDICATED SINCE THE AIR FROM THE SOUTHEAST DOES NOT APPEAR TO
CARRY AS MUCH MOISTURE TO THE AREA...BUT THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY A
PRE-FRONTAL BAND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP ANY MOISTURE TUCKED
TIGHTLY OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR PARTS OF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE GFS STILL LEAVES SOME QUESTIONS AS TO TIMING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE DISTANCE WHICH IT PUSHES PAST THE ISLAND
IF INDEED IT CAN...THEREFORE POPS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
ARE MORE UNCERTAIN. AFTER BECOMING WET ON MONDAY...MID LEVELS DRY
OUT AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN THE
VICINITY OF TJMZ...TJPS...TNCM...AND TKPK. HOWEVER IT IS EXPECTED
THAT IT WILL DISSIPATE OR MOVE AWAY AFTER SUNSET. LLVL WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...BUT ARE VARIABLE UP TO 20 KFT. WEST
WINDS REACH A MAXIMUM OF 60 KNOTS NEAR 44 KFT.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION
LEVELS AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TRANQUIL THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WERE OBSERVED HERE IN
SAN JUAN DUE TO THE DOWN SLOPE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN COAST.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RANGED FROM 40 TO 55 PERCENT.
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG INSOLATION. SEVERAL SMOKE PLUMES WERE OBSERVED ON
RADAR...ONE IN SALINAS AND ONE IN UTUADO...AND ONE IN RIO GRANDE
AND POSSIBLY CIALES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 83 71 86 / 0 0 0 10
STT 69 83 75 85 / 0 0 10 10

[Macrocane]

Yesterday highs were not as hot as the day before for most of Central America, the lows were warmer though. The temperature on February 28, 2012:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F) Warmest since October 22, 2012
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.9°C (42.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.5°C (74.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 12.5°C (54.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 23.3°C (73.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.5°C (43.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 19.7°C (67.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.8°C (74.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 12.9°C (55.2°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30.1°C (86.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 35.0°C (95.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.0°C (91.4°F) Warmest since April 9, 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.1°C (95.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.7°C (92.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 26.1°C (79.0°F)