Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Northerly winds began on Friday in northern Central America, very cold temperatures are in store for us:

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...NORTHERLY WINDS AT GALE FORCE SHOULD
STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL STORM AROUND MIDDAY ON SAT BEFORE
DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY SUN. THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 25 KT WINDS WILL REACH AS FAR AS 08N ON SUN.
MOST IMPRESSIVE IS THE LARGE AREA OF N SWELL PROPAGATING S FROM
THE TEHUANTEPEC COAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER
EVENTUALLY COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS FROM 02N TO 14N BETWEEN
92W AND 109W BY SUN EVENING.

GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULFS OF PAPAGAYO AND FONSECA OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT AND QUICKLY SHIFT S TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO SUN. WIND
WAVES AND SWELL HERE WILL MIX WITH SWELL FROM TEHUANTEPEC AND
BRING SEAS TO 12 FT ON SUN. LOOKING AHEAD...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THE NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO A MINIMAL GALE JUST DOWN STREAM OF
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ON MON.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Moisture will start to increase after Sunday as a front draws closer and the rest of next week will be wet for PR.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
420 AM AST SAT MAR 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN US WILL AMPLIFY NEXT
48 HRS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY INTO THE WRN ATLC. THIS WILL DISPLACE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED OUR AREA FOR SO LONG INTO THE
CNTRL ATLC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS TODAY OTHERWISE CONTINUED DRY
AND WARMER AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RISE. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS
MID LEVEL TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL BUT THE INVERSION IS SO STRONG THAT
WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY PRECIP. HOT ON SUNDAY AS THERMAL/THICKNESS
RIDGE ESTABLISHES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CDFNT MOVING INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL START INCREASING SUN WHICH MAY RESULT IN MORE
CLOUDS BUT LOW LEVELS WILL BE HOT AND STILL CAPPED WITH SRLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SO STILL NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS THICKEN SUN NIGHT WITH CDFNT MOVING INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE MON WITH SHOWERS FINALLY BREAKING OUT OVER NW PR AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ERODES AND MOISTURE BECOMES DEEPER. FRONT
THEN STALLS ACROSS PR TUE WITH CLOUDY COOLER AND BETTER
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS MOST OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE LOOKS PRETTY HIGH...FORCING MECHANISM WILL BE LACKING AND
DON`T EXPECT THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH RELIEF IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL DEFICITS BUT THE THICK CLOUDS AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
BE WELCOME FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE ESPECIALLY FIREFIGHTERS.

SAINT CROIX MAY NOT BENEFIT MUCH FROM THESE CHANGES AS THEY WILL
BE FARTHEST AWAY FROM UPPER TROUGH AND STALLING BDRY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIG AVIATION WX IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. LLVL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AT LESS THAN 15 KT.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WINDS AND SWELLS SUBDSIDE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
RESULT IN VERY LOW RH`S. SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS APPEAR POSSIBLE BUT
DO NOT APPEAR THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT A SIG FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
WHILE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE COOLING...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL
LOOKS PRETTY STRONG TO ALLOW DRY UNSTABLE AIR TO MIX TO THE
GROUND. HOTTER ON SUN AS THICKNESS RIDGE DEVELOPS BUT INCREASING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS. SO TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL HAVE A SIG FIRE WEATHER RISK. SIG IMPROVEMENTS
EXPECTED MON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND MID HIGH CLOUDS THICKEN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 71 89 73 / 0 0 0 0
STT 76 75 76 76 / 0 0 0 0

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 2 2013
 
Significant Feature: Cold front over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy .

Afternoon: Becoming cloudy with occasional showers, especially over northern parishes.

Tonight:  Cloudy and cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86)     Low: 22C (71F)
 


[Macrocane]

It has been a cool and windy day in Central America but the best (or worse depending on the point of view) of the cold is gonna start tonight.

The cold front has reached now northern Nicaragua:



GAPS WINDS...
A STRONG GALE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT SUNRISE THIS MORNING
WILL FURTHER STRENGTHEN TO STORM FORCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN CONTINUE AT STORM STRENGTH THROUGH SUNRISE SUN...
DIMINISHING TO A STRONG GALE AGAIN AROUND MIDDAY ON SUN.
ALTHOUGH THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX ON SUN NIGHT...EXPECT
ONE FINAL SURGE AT 30 TO 35 KT IN THE MAXIMUM DRAINAGE FLOW
AROUND SUNRISE ON MON...WITH GALE CONDITIONS ENDING BY NOON ON
MON. THE N WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15 TO 20 KT IN THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC ON MON AFTERNOON. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF 25 KT WINDS
WILL REACH ALONG 09N BETWEEN 97W AND 102W ON SUN AFTERNOON. A
LARGE AREA OF N SWELL WILL PROPAGATE SE...S...AND SW FROM THE
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AREA. THE NW SWELLS WILL MERGE ALONG 92W
WITH NE SWELLS ON SUN GENERATED BY STRONG NE WINDS THAT WILL
BEGIN TO SURGE THROUGH THE GULF FONSECA AND THE GULF OF PANAMA
TONIGHT. LONG PERIOD N TO NE SWELLS WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR
BETWEEN 90W AND 105W LATE SUN NIGHT RESULTING SEAS BUILDING 8 TO
10 FT ACROSS THE S PACIFIC WATERS TO THE N OF 05S BETWEEN 93W
AND 110W ON MON NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDING THEREAFTER.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NE WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL BEGIN TO
SURGE THROUGH THE GULF OF FONSECA THIS EVENING AND QUICKLY
SPREAD S TO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH NE WINDS
AT 20 TO 30 KT COVERING THE PACIFIC WATERS N OF LINE FROM 09N85W
TO 05N92W BY SUN MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUN AND
SUN NIGHT AND FURTHER INCREASE BRIEFLY TO A MINIMAL GALE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AROUND SUNRISE ON MON. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT IN GULF ON FONSECA LATE MON
BUT NOT TILL LATE WED IN THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO.

NORTHERLY WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WILL SURGE INTO THE GULF OF
PANAMA TONIGHT WITH THE GRADIENT INCREASING RESULTING IN 20 TO
30 KT N TO NE WINDS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
09N79W TO 04N82W ON MON MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 07N. THESE N WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH
BELOW 20 KT ON TUE AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE NEXT TEHUANTEPEC EVENT WILL
BEGIN LATE TUE NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS AGAIN ON WED MORNING.
SO THE NEXT WINDOW FOR CROSSING THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
LIKELY BE BETWEEN LATE MON AND LATE TUE.

[cycloneye]

After being dry for many days,changes are comming as finnally a wet pattern will establish for most of next week in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands as a couple of fronts move thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST SAT MAR 2 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW THEN BECOMES MOSTLY
ZONAL WITH A STRONG JET STREAM OR STRONGER WINDS HOLDING NORTH OF
THE AREA BY ABOUT 300 NM.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
AND ALLOWING LONG WAVE TROUGHS TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE THE SECOND AND STRONGER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DIG INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 20 AND 30 NORTH LATITUDE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT ON FRIDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...NO SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED TODAY AND SOUNDER VALUES
WERE WELL BELOW ONE INCH DURING THE DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A LITTLE MOISTURE CROSSING THROUGH
THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE
APPROACHING PUERTO RICO FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND BRINGING SOME
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA. MOISTURE THEN SPREADS OVER THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN SAGS
SOUTH TO BECOME EAST-WEST ORIENTED OVER OUR ATLANTIC WATERS. A SECOND
FRONT DEPICTED OVER MIAMI ON WEDNESDAY EVENING IS TO PUSH MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MOISTURE
THEN LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
AREA WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL FLYING AREA
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO SIG AVIATION WX IMPACTS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. LLVL WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE AT LESS THAN 15 KT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS REMAIN TRANQUIL WITH MODEST SWELL FROM THE
NORTHEAST STILL BEING THE PREDOMINANT ENERGY. LARGER SWELL FROM THE
NORTHWEST DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL TUESDAY AT WHICH TIME SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN
PASSAGES. MORE LIKELY HOWEVER...ARE SEAS IN EXCESS OF 7 FEET LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 71 85 73 85 / 0 10 0 40
STT 75 81 76 84 / 0 10 10 10

[Macrocane]

The new cold event started yesterday morning in Belize and Guatemala, and last night in Honduras and El Salvador but the winds were weak and the real cold air hadn't entered yet. This are the temperature on March 1, 2013:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 14.9°C (58.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 0.6°C (33.1°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.7°C (72.9°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 11.4°C (52.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 15°C (59°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 22°C (72°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.4°C (41.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.9°C (76.8°F) Warmest since October 25, 2012
Boquete, Panama 15.9°C (60.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F) Coolest since January 23, 2013
Guatemala city, Guatemala 22.2°C (72.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 22.6°C (72.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32.0°C (89.6°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.1°C (89.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 17.0°C (62.6°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.5°C (101.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F) Hottest since April 10, 2012
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 27°C (81°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.4°C (59.7°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 32.7°C (90.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The dry weather Puerto Rico and adjacent islands have been going thru will end Monday as a front and trough move thru.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
409 AM AST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE ATLC OVR THE NEXT
48 HRS. A CDFNT WILL MOVE ACROSS PR TUE AND STALL INTO THE CARIB WED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
RAPIDLY LATER TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVR THE CNTRL ATLC
CONTINUES TO YIELD TO DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS ERN NOAM.
FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED TO THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF LOCATED TO THE
WEST OF BERMUDA SWD ACROSS ERN CUBA INTO THE WRN CARIB WILL BECOME
BETTER DEFINED NEXT 12-36 HRS AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONA PASSAGE MON WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY BREAK OUT ACROSS WRN PR MON AFTERNOON AFTER NEARLY THREE
WEEKS WITHOUT A DROP OF RAIN. MOISTURE DEEPENS MON NIGHT-TUE AS
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIFTS/WEAKENS TO 600 MB. FRONT MOVES ACROSS
PR TUE AND INTO THE CARIB SEA WED THEN RETREATS NORTH OF THE AREA
WED NIGHT-THU AS A WARM FRONT. OVERALL...EXPECT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS MOST OF THIS WEEK AS AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF A FRONTAL BDRY.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK...MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA
RESPECTIVELY WITH AN OVERALL DRYING TREND EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND WILL BE FROM THE SE AT 15
KT OR LESS TODAY...VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MON TO TUE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY THRU MON BUT INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TUE-WE IN MIXED NW TO N SWELLS AND WIND WAVES. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVE THU.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BREAKING DOWN RAPIDLY LATER TODAY...THIS WILL
CREATE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS BUT AT THE SAME TIME PROMOTE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. OVERALL...FIRE DANGER THREAT LOOKS
MARGINAL TODAY. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY MON AND TUE WITH
THICK CLOUDS...DEEP MOISTURE AND SOME SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 85 74 / 0 0 40 70
STT 81 76 84 75 / 10 0 0 50

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 3 2013
 
Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning &  Afternoon: Cloudy with occasional showers, especially over northern parishes.

Tonight:  Cloudy and cool with isolated showers.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84)     Low: 22C (71F)
 


[cycloneye]

Here it comes!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
248 PM AST SUN MAR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS FLORIDA WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
NIGHT. A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PASS
THROUGH THIS FLOW THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. IT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WEDNESDAY. A SECOND FRONT
APPROACHES ON FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LINE OF SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS FORMED OVER
VIEQUES WITH A SOUTH SOUTHWEST-NORTH NORTHEAST ORIENTATION AND
MOVED SLOWLY TOWARD THE PUERTO RICAN MAINLAND. NO OTHER SHOWERS HAD
FORMED TODAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE OVER THE AREA
INCREASING NOW THROUGH MONDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. MODEL RUNS
HAVE NOT BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE MAXIMUM SOUTHEAST PUSH OF THE
FRONT BEFORE IT COMES BACK...RANGING FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS TO SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX...BUT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AREAS SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF PUERTO RICO SHOULD HAVE ONLY A
LIMITED CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THEREAFTER...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ON TAP FOR
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS AND LESS FOR THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. CURRENT MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT BREAK IN
SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLYING
AREA AND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LLVL WIND WILL BE FROM THE SE AT 10
KT OR LESS TODAY...VEERING TO THE S TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD AND SHWR COVERAGE IS EXPECTED MON TO TUE AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NW. EXPECT AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS AFTER 04/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS ARE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL...4 TO 5 FEET OR LESS...ALTHOUGH
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH HAVE BEEN GENERATING SOME WIND WAVES AND WEAK
NORTH SWELL CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO. NEXT PULSE OF
SWELL WILL BE ON TUESDAY. LARGER SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON TUESDAY...AND SEAS GREATER
THAN 7 FEET ARE EXPECTED AFTER THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS AND SEVERAL DAYS WITHOUT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL HAVE GENERATED DRY FUELS...HOWEVER RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES BORNE ON SOUTH WINDS HAVE BEEN GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT.
WETTING RAINS IN PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 24 HOURS
BEGINNING MONDAY NOON AND IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS 24 HOURS
LATER THAN THIS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 74 82 / 10 40 70 70
STT 74 84 74 83 / 10 10 50 50

[HurricaneFan]

So how much rain will the N Leewards get,if any?And what time should it start?

[Macrocane]

It has been very very cold in Central America this weekend. The cold front reached down to Panama today:



Yesterday the temperatures were pretty cool (both maximum and minimum) in most of Central America, only Panama had warmer than normal lows. The cold surge produced strong winds in the whole region. The temperatures on March 2, 2013:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 10.6°C (51.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 3.0°C (37.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 20.7°C (69.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.2°C (63.0°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 5.9°C (42.6°F) Coldest since December 25, 2012.
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.8°C (62.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.1°C (44.8°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.8°C (78.1°F) WARMEST SINCE MARCH 13, 2012
Boquete, Panama 16.6°C (61.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 19.5°C (67.1°F) Coldest since January 18, 2013.
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 14.8°C (58.6°F) Coldest since January 25, 2013.
Zacapa, Guatemala 25.8°C (78.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 27.5°C (81.5°F) Coolest since January 19, 2013.
Las Pilas, El Salvador 11.5°C (52.7°F) Coldest since January 18, 2013.
San Miguel, El Salvador 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 22°C (72°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 25°C (77°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F) Coolest since November 30, 2012.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.9°C (94.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.6°C (88.9°F) Coolest since December 30, 2012.
Boquete, Panama 23.1°C (73.6°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:
Belize city, Belize 28 km/h (18 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 56 km/h (35 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 46km/h (29 mph)
El Pacayal, El Salvador 59 km/h (37 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 74 km/h (46 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 41 km/h (26 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 54 km/h (34 mph)
Santa Ana, Costa Rica 66 km/h (41 mph)
Panama city, Panama 48 km/h (30 mph)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A wet pattern will start today in PR and adjacent islands and last thru most of the week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
446 AM AST MON MAR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...NOW LOCATED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WILL PASS TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
LATE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AS RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MONA
PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND STALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
AND PROBABLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND WILL PASS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE
IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT...NOW LOCATED EAST OF BERMUDA
SOUTHWEST TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THAT WILL REACH THE LOCAL
ISLANDS LATE TODAY AND STALL OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AS A RESULT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
REACH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS TO ENHANCE SHOWER
ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME FROM THE NORTH. THE
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CENTRAL CORDILLERA. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID WEEK WITH WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOMEWHAT.
A SECOND WEAK FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT THE AREA OVER NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TODAY BECOMING NE AROUND 10KT
AFTER SUNSET. SCT-BKN150 CIGS TODAY BCMG BKN040 AS CDFNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEEPENS.

&&

.MARINE...A NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL ARRIVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON TUESDAY BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 81 74 / 50 70 70 20
STT 82 75 80 75 / 0 50 50 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 4 2013
 
Significant Feature: Cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning &  Afternoon: Partly cloudy, cool and windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight:  Fair, cool and windy.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 18 knots (22 mph)

Temperatures: High: 27C (80)     Low: 20C (67F)
 


[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather will prevail today thru Wednesday as a weak front lingers nearby PR and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
527 AM AST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING WESTERLY FLOW AND SHORT
WAVE PULSES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. AT LOW LEVELS...A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE LOCAL AREA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS DISSIPATES. THIS WILL RESULT IN CLOUDINESS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS USVI. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL HOWEVER
NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MIGHT BE BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE
RAINFALL. A SECOND FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO AFFECT OVER NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.


&&

.AVIATION...NNE WINDS 10G20KT IN MOST TERMINALS. CIGS BKN040 WITH
VCSH TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING WED.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 71 82 72 / 50 20 30 20
STT 83 74 83 74 / 40 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 5 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge over the western Caribbean.

Morning: Expect brief showers over northeastern parishes, mostly sunny over remaining parishes.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy over northern parishes, mainly sunny elsewhere.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)

 
 


[Macrocane]

EXTREMELY COLD AND WINDY SUNDAY IN CENTRAL AMERICA

March 3 was the coldest day since 2010 for Guatemala and Belice, it was the coldest day in one year in Costa Rica and the coldest day since December 2012 in El Salvador. The air was so cold that even the maximum temperatures were well below normal. The wind gusts were the strongest of the season.

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 14.0°C (57.2°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 15, 2010
Guatemala city, Guatemala 9.2°C (48.6°F) COLDEST SINCE DECEMBER 28, 2010
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -1.4°C (29.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 16.7°C (62.1°F) Coldest since December 25, 2012
San Salvador, El Salvador 14.9°C (58.8°F) Coldest since December 26, 2012
Los Andes, El Salvador 5.0°C (41.0°F) Coldest since December 25, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 6°C (43°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 14°C (57°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 13.6°C (56.5°F) COLDEST SINCE FEBRUARY 23, 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.4°C (38.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.5°C (76.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.6°C (61.9°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 20.5°C (68.9°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 17.5°C (63.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26.9°C (80.4°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 24.7°C (76.5°F) Coolest since June 19, 2012
Las Pilas, El Salvador 14.7°C (58.5°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 33.0°C (91.4°F) Coolest since October 25, 2012
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F) Coolest since January 19, 2012
Choluteca, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 21.3°C (70.3°F) Coolest since January 5, 2012.
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 8.1°C (46.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 22.9°C (73.2°F)

Strongest Wind Gust:
Belize city, Belize 31 km/h (19 mph)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 46 km/h (29 mph)
Ishuatán, El Salvador 77 km/h (48 mph)
San Salvador, El Salvador 44 km/h (28 mph)
Nueva Ocotepque, Honduras 57 km/h (36 mph)
Managua, Nicaragua 44 km/h (28 mph)
San Jose, Costa Rica 73 km/h (46 mph)
Santa Ana, Costa Rica 109 km/h (68 mph)
Panama city, Panama 55 km/h (34 mph)

[cycloneye]

All this week we will have that.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
254 PM AST TUE MAR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A NORTH NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AS TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICTED ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT JUST ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. CLOUDINESS WITH SOME
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE COLD FRONT LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. IN
FACT...THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE...WITH PWAT IN THE RANGE OF 1.50-1.80 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AT THIS MOMENT NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT PCPN IS EXPECTED. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A NORTHEAST
LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BECOMING EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER...MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. BKN-OVC AT 030-050 ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE USVI AS WELL AS TJSJ AND POSSIBLY TJPS. NE WINDS AT
10-15KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20KTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...SLIGHTLY DECREASING AFTER 06/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST LONG PERIOD SWELLS HAVE BEGUN TO ARRIVE
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MONA PASSAGE. THESE SWELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD AND AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS AND PASSAGES
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7 FEET AND WINDS OF 21 KNOTS OR
LESS EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 81 72 83 / 20 30 20 20
STT 71 82 74 83 / 40 40 20 20

[msbee]

Thanks as always, Luis, for your updates.
We have the cloudiness but NO rain..and boy, do we need it.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

Not good news to report as the visit by the hurricane hunter to some islands in the Caribbean in Mid-March as part of the annual tour before every season was canceled because of the sequestration thing.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather with some showers mixed with sun will prevail today in PR and adjacent islands.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST WED MAR 6 2013

...CORRECTED FOR CHANGE LOCATION OF FRONT

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD
OVER THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE LIES OVER THE CARIB WATERS JUST SOUTH
OF ST. CROIX BUT IS NOW BECOMING DIFFUSE AS SEEN ON BLENDED TPW
PRODUCT. LATEST IR AND 11-3.9 MICRON IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT COASTAL
WATERS NW OF AGUADILLA WHERE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE NOTED. FOR
TODAY...UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHRA ACTIVITY. ON
THU...DEVELOPING SERLY FLOW WILL HELP BOOST TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH
WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE MID ATLC STATES WILL MOVE INTO THE ATLC
PUSHING A S/W TROUGH THE REGION AND HELP IGNITE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
EVEN THUNDESTORMS AS LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME MODERATELY
STEEP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOK HIGHER THAN INDICATED IN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER INLAND SECTIONS
AND TRACK TO THE EAST OR ESE. SAME SCENARIO MAY REPEAT ITSELF FRI
AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY MOVES ACROSS AND SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
ON SAT...TROUGH AXIS WILL START PULLING OUT TO THE EAST WITH A
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS LOOK MUCH MORE
STABLE BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY STILL BE AROUND FOR ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS.

NEXT WEEK...AREA BECOMES UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW
SUN LEADING TO STRONG DOWNWARD/SINKING MOTION LEADING TO A RAPID
DRYING TREND. UPPER RIDGE THEN GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE WEST TUE
WITH MODELS SHOWING A STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
OVERALL...CHANCES OF RAINFALL LOOK PRETTY SLIM IF NOT ZERO ALL OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS TNCM...TKPK...AND TIST THROUGH AT LEAST 06/12Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LATEST 06/00Z
TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED MAINLY NORTHERLY WIND AT 10 KTS OR LESS FROM
THE SURFACE UP TO 6K FEET...BECOMING WESTERLY AND STRONGER ABOVE.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 7 FT TONIGHT BUT BUILD
RAPIDLY AGAIN FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH MON IN VERY LARGE NNE AND
NORTH SWELLS. THIS SWELL EVENT LOOKS QUITE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY
REQUIRE HIGH SURF WARNINGS AND COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 84 74 83 74 / 20 20 20 20