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WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19P (SANDRA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.9S 157.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 157.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.2S 158.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.6S 159.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.1S 160.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 16.7S 160.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 18.5S 162.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8S 163.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 23.5S 164.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 157.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19P (SANDRA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
DEEPENED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AN EYE FEATURE ON A
080957Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DEVELOPING EYE IN THE SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS WEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED
EASTWARD OUTFLOW INTO DEEP TROUGHING NEAR THE DATELINE. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS SLIGHT POLEWARD ENHANCEMENT TO THE OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN AUSTRALIA. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE.
AFTER TAU 48, AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING, BRINGING THE CYCLONE TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY. ALL ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SUPPORT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
EXPECTED BY TAU 72. TC 19S SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY TAU 96 AS VWS
INCREASES AND OCEAN PARAMETERS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. MODEL GUIDANCE
HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH GFS THE SLOWEST AND TO THE RIGHT
OF CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF AND
FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO OFFSET GFS. DUE TO THE IMPROVED MODEL
AGREEMENT, THERE IS NOW A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 090300Z AND 091500Z. //
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