Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 6 2013
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over eastern parishes.

Afternoon:  Cloudy with occasional light to moderate showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)
 


[cycloneye]

Another weak front will arrive on Saturday but after that, dry weather will be the rule for next week in the NE Caribbean.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
240 PM AST WED MAR 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT REMNANTS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...PRODUCING ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO WILL MOVE EASTWARD...
MAINTAINING A NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOMING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY. A MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WAS DETECTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC NORTHEAST OF PUERTO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AS THIS
HAPPENS...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BECOME FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN LOCAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. THIS SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
IN FACT...THE GFS COMPUTER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWAT IN THE RANGE OF
1.50-1.80 INCHES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES SEABOARD ON THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC...ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY
SATURDAY. A MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE FA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...LIMITING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS IT BECOMES SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
AFTER 07/12Z AT AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE AT 6 FEET OR LESS AND WINDS
AT 18 KNOTS OR LESS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 72 83 73 82 / 20 20 10 30
STT 73 83 73 83 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The cold temperatures continued on Monday, at least the minimum remained very cold but the maximum registered a significant warm up. The observations on March 4, 2013:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 15.6°C (60.1°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 9.3°C (48.7°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -3.2°C (26.2°F) Coldest since December 9, 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 11.7°C (53.1°F) COLDEST SINCE JANUARY 23, 2009
San Salvador, El Salvador 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 4.2°C (39.6°F) Coldest since December 23, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.7°C (69.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 7°C (45°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F) Coldest since January 14, 2013
Managua, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 14°C (57°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 14.0°C (57.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 3.9°C (39.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.0°C (71.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 14.3°C (57.7°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.3°C (79.3°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.5°C (74.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 29.0°C (84.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.2°C (88.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 35°C (95°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 15.3°C (59.5°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 30.1°C (86.2°F) Coolest since December 23, 2012
Boquete, Panama 22.2°C (72.0°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Some scattered showers will move thru parts of PR today thru Saturday but very dry weather will arrive by Sunday and prevail thru all of next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU MAR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP LAYERED LOW PRES OVR THE NW ATLC WILL MOVE SLOWLY
ACROSS THE ATLC OVR THE NEXT SVRL DAYS PUSHING A WEAK CDFNT THRU
THE AREA SAT AND ALSO GENERATE VERY LARGE SWELLS THAT WILL START
AFFECTING INTO THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LIGHT WIND REGIME AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK
NORTH OF THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN SCT SHOWERS POSSIBLY EVEN
A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS CENTRAL CORDILLERA TODAY AND FRI. CONVECTION
SHOULD DRIFT TOWARD THE ESE TODAY AND TOWARD THE ENE FRI. THESE
ARE REALLY THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME RELIEF TO OUR ABNORMALLY DRY
WEATHER SINCE ON SAT MODELS ALREADY SHOW A DRYER AND MORE STABLE
AIR MASS ESTABLISHING OVER THE AREA.

TROF AXIS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUN WITH UPPER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE QUICKLY ESTABLISHING OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND SHARP DRYING NOTED ON MODEL FIELDS. SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK GREATLY INHIBITING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...IT APPEARS VERY DRY
ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH VERY SLIM IF ANY POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 07/17Z AND MAY AFFECT TJPS. WINDS WILL
BE VARIABLE AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS...
SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH AFT 08/00Z.


&&

.MARINE...GLOBAL ENSEMBLE WAVEWATCH SHOWS A 100% PROB OF SEAS
REACHING 4.0 METERS OR 13 FEET MON. TALKED TO TAFB AND BOTH AGREE
SEAS WILL REACH 12 FEET ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTLINE WITH 8-9FT
SWELLS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSAGES. WILL ISSUE SCA FOR AMZ710
WITH 430AM CWF ISSUANCE. SWELL EVENT WILL ALSO PEAK WITH A NEAR A
NEW MOON WHEN TIDES ARE HIGHEST. EXPECT VERY DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 81 73 / 10 10 20 50
STT 82 75 82 75 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 7 2013
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning & Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight:  Partly cloudy becoming fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 23C (73F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
239 PM AST THU MAR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT REMNANTS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST
ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. LARGE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ABUNDANT LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON MOSTLY ACROSS AND SOUTH OF CORDILLERA CENTRAL. THE LIGHT
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH JUST EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. A DEEP LAYERED LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
ON SATURDAY...SLIGHTLY INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE
REGION. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALSO GENERATE LARGE NORTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST SWELLS OVER THE EXPOSED ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND LASTING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SWELL EVENT
LOOKS QUITE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY REQUIRE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND
COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS.

MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF PR...
THIS MAY CAUSE VCSH ACROSS TJPS AND TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY THE SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
ACROSS PR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE USVI/BVI WILL OBSERVE VARIABLE
WINDS WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...SHIFTING TO A MORE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 08/00Z ACROSS MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTLINE WITH UP TO 10 FEET
SWELLS SPREADING THROUGH THE PASSAGES. THIS SWELL EVENT LOOKS
QUITE SIGNIFICANT AND MAY REQUIRE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES...HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS AND/OR COASTAL FLOOD PRODUCTS TO BE ISSUE. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 82 72 / 10 10 20 50
STT 82 73 82 72 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

The NWS office in San Juan issued the Spring Hydrologic outlook for Puerto Rico and it looks like things will be near normal.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1106 AM AST THU MAR 7 2013

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS INDICATES A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR PUERTO RICO
INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND A BELOW NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...

CURRENT STREAMFLOWS...
STREAMFLOW MEASURED BY THE USGS GAGING NETWORK SHOWS MOST
LOCATIONS RUNNING IN THE NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL RANGE.
SOUTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO IS TRENDING DRIER...IN THE MUCH BELOW
NORMAL RANGE. AS ALWAYS...THERE ARE SOME OUTLIERS BUT THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION SHOWS REASONABLE STREAMFLOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PAST PRECIPITATION...
MONTHLY RAINFALL TOTALS...THE YEAR TO DATE TOTALS ARE RUNNING
BELOW NORMAL FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS. FOR PUERTO RICO...THE TOTALS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT NORMAL RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEST COAST WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE CLOSER TO 25
PERCENT OF NORMAL. THE TOTALS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ARE ALSO
RUNNING IN THE 25 TO 50 PERCENT OF NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.

SOIL MOISTURE...
THIS IS THE END OF THE DRY SEASON FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...SO THE CURRENT DRY SOILS ARE EXPECTED...AND
THE SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS USUALLY IMPROVE WITH AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL IN APRIL AND MAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AREA ALONG THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF PUERTO RICO...STRETCHING EAST TO WEST...THAT
HAS NOW BEEN DESIGNATED AS ABNORMALLY DRY IN THE U.S. DROUGHT
MONITOR. UNFORTUNATELY...THE DROUGHT MONITOR DOES NOT ISSUE
DESIGNATIONS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WHICH...BASED ON
CONSISTENCY...WOULD PROBABLY MIMIC THESE ABNORMALLY DRY DROUGHT
DESIGNATIONS.

AS EXPECTED WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS...THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON IS
IN FULL SWING...AND AT ITS PEAK...WITH WELL OVER 750 WILDLAND
FIRES REPORTED AND OVER 4600 ACRES BURNED THUS FAR IN PUERTO RICO.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES OVER THE SOUTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO WHERE...CLIMATOLOGICALLY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES...DRIEST SOILS...MOST COMBUSTIBLE FUELS...AND THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE CONCENTRATED.

RESERVOIRS...
BASED ON USGS GAGING SITES...A SAMPLE OF A FEW OF THE MAJOR
RESERVOIRS ACROSS PUERTO RICO SHOW THAT CURRENT LEVELS DO NOT
CAUSE ANY PRESENT CONCERNS. LAGO PATILLAS IS CURRENTLY AT 215.96
FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 222 FEET. LAGO LOIZA IS
CURRENTLY 132.77 FEET...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS 132.00 AND
LAGO LA PLATA IS CURRENTLY 162.59...NORMAL OPERATIONAL LEVEL IS
155. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE NO CONCERNS PRESENTLY FOR MOST OF THE
LAKES...THESE LEVELS ARE RUNNING LOWER THAN THIS TIME LAST
YEAR...2012.

FUTURE PRECIPITATION...
CLIMATOLOGICALLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF MARCH WHICH IS THE LAST MONTH OF THE
DRY SEASON ACROSS THE ISLANDS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SPRING OF
2013...ENSO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION REMAINS NEUTRAL...SUGGESTING
CONTINUED DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS.

AS A RESULT OF THESE FACTORS...THE CURRENT SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INDICATES A NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL
FOR PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND A BELOW NORMAL
FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU

THIS HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will fall today and Saturday in PR and adjacent islands but a drying trend will start on Sunday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPREAD ACROSS THE WEST
AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH BASE OF TROUGH DIPPING SOUTH TO JUST
NORTH OF THE REGION. MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN EXTENDS NORTHWARDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA...WITH
SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT NOW ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING ACROSS/EXITING THE REGION THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE ...FAIRLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BELOW 800
MILLIBARS...AS BROAD FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SHIFTS FURTHER EAST...AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXITS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD OF THE UNITED STATES AND ENTERS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. NORTHERLY
WINDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL EVENTUALLY INCREASE AND TIGHTEN BY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/LOW TO MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST
FOR ANOTHER DAY WHILE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. EARLIER TJSJ 08/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING...AS WELL AS SAT DERIVED IPW AND MIMIC-TPW ALL SUGGEST
PWAT VALUES NOW NEAR 1.50...BUT STEADILY DECREASING. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE GOOD VENTILATION AND AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS TODAY... AS SUBTROPICAL
JET SEGMENT STREAKS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH
A GRADUAL DRIER WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STILL
EXPECT SUFFICIENT LINGERING MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH LOCAL EFFECTS
AND GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT TO ENHANCE DAYTIME CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE ISLANDS TODAY. THE PRESENT STEERING FLOW WILL HELP
FOCUS THE AREAS OF CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
AND EAST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH LESSER SHOWER ACTIVITY
EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AFT 08/17Z AND MAY AFFECT TJPS. NORTH WINDS
AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND BUOY DATA ALL STILL POINT TO
INCREASING AND DETERIORATING SEAS STARTING LATE THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS AND SWELL ACTION
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 FEET AND RAPIDLY SPREAD THROUGH
THE LOCAL PASSAGES. AS A RESULT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS WELL AS
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASING HAZARDOUS SEAS AND DANGEROUS SURF ZONE
CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES. BUOY 41046 IN THE EAST BAHAMAS
WAS NOW SHOWING SEAS SEAS OF 9 TO 10 FEET NEAR 12 SECS IN NNW SWELLS
WHILE THE SOUTH BERMUDA BUOY SHOWED SEAS UP TO AS MUCH AS 16 FEET
AT AROUND 14 SECS. WITH THIS IN MIND GUIDANCE NOW SUGGEST AN ESTIMATED
ARRIVAL TIME LATE THIS EVENING OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 72 80 72 / 20 40 40 20
STT 83 72 83 74 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 8 2013
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy with isolated showers over northern parishes.

Tonight:  Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. Conditions in the beaches are bad as very high swells with rip currents are prevailing in the north coasts of Puerto Rico,the USVI,BVI and Northern Leewards.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
257 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE
HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CAUSING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS SAME BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS CAUSING A NORTH NORTHWEST
SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE HAZARDOUS SEAS...HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS...AND SOME COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE LOCAL AREA REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY AS THE
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL EFFECT AND THE DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. BLENDED TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND THE GFS
MODEL INDICATES THAT THIS DRIER AIR SHOULD BE COMING IN SLOWLY ON
SATURDAY...BUT BY SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AT 1.0 INCH OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE DRIER AIR MAKES ITS WAY IN.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...WESTERN...AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR. THIS MAY CAUSE
VCSH ACROSS TJMZ AS WELL AS MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE LOCAL
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE SEAS OF 8 TO 12 FEET WITH A
PERIOD OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. VERY LARGE
BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 12 AND 15 FEET ARE POSSIBLE. FOR THOSE REASONS
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND LOCAL
PASSAGES...AS WELL AS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTLINES OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 82 72 / 20 40 40 20
STT 83 72 83 72 / 20 40 40 20

[cycloneye]

High Surf Advisory in effect for Puerto Rico and adjacent islands

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
255 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

...PROLONGED HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED STARTING
SATURDAY MORNING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE
LARGE...LONG PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELLS OF 8 TO 12 FEET AT 13 TO
15 SECONDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND CARIBBEAN PASSAGES
STARTING SATURDAY MORNING. THESE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WILL RESULT IN
VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN 12 AND 18 FEET...LOCALLY HIGHER
ALONG EXPOSED REEFS. AS A RESULT...ROUGH AND HAZARDOUS SURF
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH FACING
COASTLINES OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...VIEQUES AND THE NORTHERN
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

PRZ001-002-005-008-010-012-013-VIZ001-090315-
/O.COR.TJSJ.SU.Y.0008.130309T1200Z-130312T1800Z/
/O.COR.TJSJ.CF.A.0002.130309T2000Z-130311T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS-
255 PM AST FRI MAR 8 2013

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM AST
TUESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 2 PM AST
TUESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

* WAVES AND SURF: LARGE SWELLS OF 8 TO 10 FEET THIS WEEKEND...
BUILDING GRADUALLY TO 12 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 12 TO 15 FEET THIS WEEKEND...
AND UP TO 20 FEET EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING: STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: VERY LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS SURF
CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT RIP CURRENTS.

* COASTAL FLOODING: BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF
HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING.

THE TIMES OF THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

AGUADILLA HARBOR: 6:37 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.07 FEET.

ARECIBO HARBOR: 6:51 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.17 FEET.

SAN JUAN HARBOR: 7:10 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 1.17 FEET.

MAGENS BAY ST THOMAS: 6:30 PM AST SATURDAY EVENING AT 0.41 FEET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING RIP CURRENTS AND LOCALIZED BEACH
EROSION.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$


HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SANJUAN

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon. This is from the morning discussion by the San Juan NWS as Storm2k was out.

Dry weather will dominate starting on Sunday and lasting thru all of next week. Conditions for those who venture to the beaches are not good so dont go as rip currents are very dangerous.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
508 AM AST SAT MAR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BASE OF BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET SEGMENT CROSSES
THE REGION AND ROUNDS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WHICH COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...EXPECT
THE UPPER TROUGH TO LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. THE PRESENT PATTERN
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO INDUCE A HIGH ZONAL/WESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL
PERSIST AT LEAST UNTIL MONDAY...THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND
WEAKEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
TO LIFT FURTHER EAST NORTH EAST TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH WEST ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT
IN AND INCREASING LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WHICH WILL
HELP PUSH SHALLOW MOISTURE FRAGMENTS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WEAK BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL REMNANTS APPROACHING
THE REGION THIS MORNING...WILL BRING FRAGMENTS OF SHALLOW MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME PASSING SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND NORTHERN VIRGIN ISLANDS. SO FAR NOT MUCH
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ONLY A LINE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WAS NOTED QUICKLY APPROACHING THE NORTHERN COASTLINE
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ALSO BRING LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY. LOCAL EFFECTS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VENTILATION
ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE ISLANDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOWEVER BE OF SHORT DURATION...
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND
INCREASE THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THIS IN TURN WILL BRING DRIER
AND MORE STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS LATER IN THE EVENING AND INTO
SUNDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO SUGGEST A GRADUAL
DRYING TEND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
SKIES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...LATEST BUOY DATA INDICATED WAVE HEIGHTS WERE STEADILY
ON THE RISE WITH SEAS NOW BETWEEN 7 TO 10 FEET AROUND 14 SEC AT
BUOYS 41053 AND 41043. SEAS AND SURF ZONE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO DETERIORATE OVER THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR
THIS REASON...HIGH SURF ADVISORIES WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 8 AM
AST TODAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL GO INTO EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
FOR MINOR INUNDATION OF THE LOWEST AREAS ON THE NORTHERN COASTS WITH
SOME COASTAL EROSION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LOCAL COASTAL AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 79 71 / 30 20 20 10
STT 83 71 81 72 / 30 20 20 10

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM AST TUESDAY
FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHEAST-
NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-WESTERN
INTERIOR.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CULEBRA-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-
NORTHEAST-NORTHWEST-SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-SOUTHEAST-VIEQUES-
WESTERN INTERIOR.

VI...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM AST TUESDAY
FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM AST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ST. THOMAS/ST. JOHN/ADJACENT ISLANDS.

[msbee]

good to see storm2k back Luis!

[cycloneye]

good to see storm2k back Luis!

Hi Barbara. Hopefully the server issues are being resolved and we dont have more interruptions.The admins will let us know the official word on that.

[cycloneye]

Puerto Rico/USVI Febuary Climate Report

It was a dry month for the most part.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=feb2013cr

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
306 PM AST SAT MAR 9 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
IS CAUSING A LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH
LOCAL EFFECTS IS CAUSING CLOUDINESS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...IMPROVING THE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THIS IS
IN RESPONSE TO THE COMBINATION OF SHALLOW MOISTURE FROM AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...LOCAL EFFECTS AND DAYTIME
HEATING. CLOUDINESS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS PUERTO RICO.
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS WERE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH VERY LITTLE
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY...WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PREVAIL BUT FEW SHRA AT TAF SITES BRIEFLY DECR
CIG/VSBY...MOST SHRA THIS AFTERNOON INLAND PR. LLVL WIND BLO FL050
VRBL 5-12 KT AND THEN W ABV...INCR TO 30 KT BY FL150.

&&

.MARINE...NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS CAUSING BREAKING WAVES OF 13 TO
16 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTLINES AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY AND
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT. BUOY 41053 REPORTED SEAS OF
UP TO 11.5 FEET THIS MORNING BUT NOW IS REPORTING SEAS BETWEEN 8
AND 9 FEET WITH A PERIOD BETWEEN 13 AND 14 SECONDS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 81 73 81 / 20 20 10 0
STT 72 82 72 82 / 20 20 10 0

[Gustywind]

good to see storm2k back Luis!

Hi Barbara. Hopefully the server issues are being resolved and we dont have more interruptions.The admins will let us know the official word on that.

I was very sad about that Hopefully things have turn well !

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon to all. Dry weather will dominate the NE Caribbean for most of this week.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN MAR 10 2013

.DISCUSSION...LOTS OF CLOUDS OVER PR MAINLAND BUT THEY WERE MORE
AT MIDDLE LEVEL THIS MORNING WHICH KEPT TEMPERATURES DOWN A LITTLE.
NOW THEY LOOK SOMEWHAT MORE CONVECTIVE AND TERRAIN INDUCED SO
WOULD THINK THAT AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS WILL GET STARTED AT ANY
TIME. BUT DON/T BELIEVE THEY WILL AMOUNT TO MUCH SINCE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO SHALLOW.

SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR YET THIS SEASON WILL ARRIVE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS THE DOMINANT AND PERSISTENT LOW IN WESTERN ATLANTIC
CONTINUES TO SPIN AND DRIFT SOUTHEAST...DRAGGING THE SUBSIDING AIR
DOWN THE BACKSIDE. THERE ARE HOWEVER A FEW PERIODS WHEN BETTER
MOISTURE SWINGS DOWN BELOW 850 MB...MOST NOTABLY ON MON NIGHT AND
AGAIN THU. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS UNTIL AT LEAST
THU.

TRADE WINDS TO BE RATHER LOW THIS WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP THE FIRE
THREAT FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL. BUT STILL NO BREAK TO THE DRY
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
SFC-2K FT WINDS WILL BE A AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND HAVE A STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WITH SOME VARIATIONS AT THE SFC DUE TO SEA
BREEZE...ESPECIALLY FOR TJPS UNTIL 10/22Z...WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AT THE SURFACE AFTER 11/00Z. DEVELOPING CLOUDS
WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY. VERY LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH SEAS AND SURF MAY CONTINUE INTO WED WITH THE SLOW
EXIT OF THE DEEP SYSTEM IN WESTERN ATLANTIC. DECAYING CURRENT
CONDITIONS FROM BUOY 41048 GIVES STILL 10 FEET OFF OF NORTH SHORE
WITH A PERIOD OF 14 SECONDS AFTER MIDNIGHT MON NIGHT. BUT THIS
EVENT MAY NOT DECREASE UNTIL TUE. ESSENTIALLY LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ATTM UNTIL THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 70 82 71 81 / 10 10 10 10
STT 70 81 71 80 / 10 10 20 10

[msbee]

Good afternoon everyone
I hope storm22k problems are resolved.
High surf here in St. Maarten. The surfers are having a great time!

[cycloneye]

Good afternoon everyone
I hope storm22k problems are resolved.
High surf here in St. Maarten. The surfers are having a great time!

https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 2520_n.jpg

Here is a image from Rincon PR of the delighted surfers. Hopefully,things are resolved very soon in Storm2k to not have more interruptions.