Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

[cycloneye]

This post is to let know the members that Rob of Crown Weather Services told me to take him off the list as he will not do a seasonal forecast this year but he will continue to have his tropical page on his site.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=29

[Blown Away]

Farmer's Almanac general predictions. Just a little something fun to get us through the winter lull.

[SouthFloridian92]

Is the Farmers' Alamanac generally accurate or no?

[cycloneye]

Is the Farmers' Alamanac generally accurate or no?

I look at it but dont consider them as official proffesional meteorolgists and that is why I dont have them in the first post list of expert forecasts.

[Blown Away]

Not one of the expert forecasts, but an opinion from Weather Underground's comment board.

[cycloneye]

That is only an opinion by one of the members of that site not from Dr Jeff Masters.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: That is only an opinion by one of the members of that site not from Dr Jeff Masters.

Edited to clarify, so bored and grasping to anything.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: That is only an opinion by one of the members of that site not from Dr Jeff Masters.

Edited to clarify, so bored and grasping to anything.

That's ok. Time goes fast and very soon we will have a parade of forecasts comming so hang there. What I wonder is when Joe Bastardi will release his first 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season as last year he did that in mid-March.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: That is only an opinion by one of the members of that site not from Dr Jeff Masters.

Edited to clarify, so bored and grasping to anything.

That's ok. Time goes fast and very soon we will have a parade of forecasts comming so hang there. What I wonder is when Joe Bastardi will release his first 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season as last year he did that in mid-March.

I just listened to one of JB's interviews he did late 2012 and he talked about patterns, like always, and he suggested 2013 will be long tracking big CV storms generally moving towards Bahamas before recurving and/or EC impacts. Based on that, my guess is he will be thinking NW Caribbean/Bahamas/SFL/NC as target areas. Again just my opinion after listenting to JB.

JB starts talking about 2013 season @5min: http://www.weatherbell.com/weatherbell-press/should-east-coast-brace-for-more-storms-like-sandy

[cycloneye]

StormW made in March 6 a North Atlantic synopsis about how things stand in the Tropics. Go to the first post of thread and the last one on the list of experts is StormW. Once you click the link go to archieves and click March 2013 and then after 5 older posts there it is.

Is getting close to the dates that the experts will release their 2013 forecasts.Unless Joe Bastardi comes first,is TSR turn on April 5th followed by CSU on April 10th.

[cycloneye]

The window for the first JB 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season outlook opens from now.

[weatherwindow]

http://img28.imageshack.us/img28/9718/farmeralmanac.jpg

Farmers Almanac general predictions. Just a little something fun to get us through the winter lull.

For our further edification and speculation...the Old Farmer's Almanac forecast for Florida's hurricane season...Hurricane threat June 1-5...Hurricane threat June 11-14..Hurricane threat August 5-7...Hurricane threat October 10-12....pretty eye-catching huh

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Cycloneye, you can add Levi and his prediction for 14-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, you can add Levi and his prediction for 14-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Levi Cowan's Mid March Tropical Tidbit has been added.

[Blown Away]

Cycloneye, you can add Levi and his prediction for 14-16 named storms, 8-10 hurricanes, and 3-5 major hurricanes.

Levi Cowan's Mid March Tropical Tidbit has been added.

IMO, Levi's summary was very good with many details explained in simple terms.

[wxman57]

Is the Farmers' Alamanac generally accurate or no?

It's as accurate as any horoscope you read in the paper each day. Predictions are typically quite vague and difficult to verify. For example "hurricane threat June 1-5" doesn't necessarily mean hurricane impact. How do you verify a "threat". A threat could be defined as a disturbance east of the Caribbean. Yes, such a disturbance could be a threat to Florida in a week, but there is no forecast of impact in Florida. If the almanac said "hurricane impact in south Florida June 1-5", that would be a different story. Think of the Farmer's Almanac as a curiosity that may be good for a laugh now and then, sort of like your daily horoscope.

[SFLcane]

Is the Farmers' Alamanac generally accurate or no?

It's as accurate as any horoscope you read in the paper each day. Predictions are typically quite vague and difficult to verify. For example "hurricane threat June 1-5" doesn't necessarily mean hurricane impact. How do you verify a "threat". A threat could be defined as a disturbance east of the Caribbean. Yes, such a disturbance could be a threat to Florida in a week, but there is no forecast of impact in Florida. If the almanac said "hurricane impact in south Florida June 1-5", that would be a different story. Think of the Farmer's Almanac as a curiosity that may be good for a laugh now and then, sort of like your daily horoscope.

So were are your season numbers or predictions 57 ? :0)

[wxman57]

So were are your season numbers or predictions 57 ? :0)

I'm thinking 15-18 NS, 6-8 H and 3-4 IH. Neutral ENSO. Weaker Bermuda High. Pressures closer to normal in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf. Warmer SSTs in the MDR. Less low-level wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Less dry/sinking air (more instability). Negative NAO may turn systems northward that track north of the Caribbean vs. into the East Coast. Decreased threat of an East Coast hurricane impact (vs. normal). Significantly higher risk of a hurricane striking the eastern Caribbean this year vs. 2012. Higher risk of a major hurricane in the Gulf (than 2012).

[Hurricane Jed]

Some fun facts. List 5 has had 64 named storms through 5 uses. Ignoring outliers it averages around 13 named storms per season and 3 major hurricanes. I think we can expect to see a decent amount of activity.

[NDG]

So were are your season numbers or predictions 57 ? :0)

I'm thinking 15-18 NS, 6-8 H and 3-4 IH. Neutral ENSO. Weaker Bermuda High. Pressures closer to normal in the MDR/Caribbean/Gulf. Warmer SSTs in the MDR. Less low-level wind shear in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. Less dry/sinking air (more instability). Negative NAO may turn systems northward that track north of the Caribbean vs. into the East Coast. Decreased threat of an East Coast hurricane impact (vs. normal). Significantly higher risk of a hurricane striking the eastern Caribbean this year vs. 2012. Higher risk of a major hurricane in the Gulf (than 2012).

Wow, coming from you then it will be one heck of an active season for the Atlantic since most times you are fairly conservative.
Thanks for your early thoughts.