Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Ntxw]

Long range modelling seem to be hinting at a potential spring frost/freeze coming just after the equinox (especially northern half of Texas) for a large area. It's a good time to start those plants in containers as you can bring them indoors if needed. I would wait until early April to start putting them in the ground.

The -AO is arguably at it's greatest dip since December so soil temps won't likely recover that well just yet.

[Longhornmaniac8]

In other news, the forecast high temperature in Austin on Monday is 99.

[Ntxw]

In other news, the forecast high temperature in Austin on Monday is 99.

Source? That seems a little ridiculous, I see nothing indicating more than mid to upper 80s before the cool front blows through.

[somethingfunny]

That source is Weather Underground I believe. It only uses raw GFS data and displays them for public consumption. It's terrible.

Use http://www.weather.gov for reliable temperature forecasts that actually take all the models into account and the analysis of professional meteorologists.

[Ntxw]

Evidence from the ensembles and OP continue to grow for a late season/spring arctic/polar cold snap. The AO is on it's way down to extreme levels and possibly record territory for March. Concern for a freeze continues to grow.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Well hello down there







Scare me with the GFS forecast..........

[Portastorm]

Evidence from the ensembles and OP continue to grow for a late season/spring arctic/polar cold snap. The AO is on it's way down to extreme levels and possibly record territory for March. Concern for a freeze continues to grow.

Did you guys see the 6z GFS run? Good gawd ... that is just insane, crazy cold for late March for the Southern Plains and Texas!



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[Tireman4]

Uh oh...could winter stay until April?...he he he...

[weatherdude1108]

Evidence from the ensembles and OP continue to grow for a late season/spring arctic/polar cold snap. The AO is on it's way down to extreme levels and possibly record territory for March. Concern for a freeze continues to grow.

Did you guys see the 6z GFS run? Good gawd ... that is just insane, crazy cold for late March for the Southern Plains and Texas!

http://img834.imageshack.us/img834/9794/06zgfs1115day850mbtempa.gif

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YIKES!
My yard is growing and blooms are coming out. Cedar Elms and Oaks in the yard are starting to bud/leaf out. Crepe Myrtles still dormant. Maybe the Crepes are holding off because they can sense something around the corner(?). Interesting model!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

And my spidey senses say it will come to pass!

heeheehahahoho

You IDIOTS invoked his presence!

[somethingfunny]

Can't get a decent arctic blast all winter, but we get one in spring. Let's hope this prediction is as reliable as the last ones were.

[Tireman4]

I would laugh my tookus off if it snowed in Texas. Even here in Houston. Oh the laughter out of me...LOL What a winter...LOL

[Ntxw]

:roll:

Can't get a decent arctic blast all winter, but we get one in spring. Let's hope this prediction is as reliable as the last ones were.

If, and this is a big if, the AO does indeed fall to record territory as the models predict (stronger than anything we saw all winter) then we have a chance at a sting for late March. It has fallen today and we should see how deep it falls the coming week. Maybe low to mid 40s for highs and definitely a freeze, a hard freeze if the Pacific doesn't throw a wrench in there is a possibility. It's been chillier than normal since late February average wise, will this be the bang that the 35+ days straight of -AO going out?

[vbhoutex]

I saw someone, can't remember who, post about this on FB also. This could get interesting. I will be rolling on the floor with Tireman4 if it comes to pass and we see snow and/or freezing temps in our area. Wouldn't be so far fetched further N and W, but still .

[dhweather]

Nobody is in the Spring thread.

I was looking at the extended - I think there's a real chance we go through the rest of the month dry, maybe one decent chance of rain.

[vbhoutex]

Nobody is in the Spring thread.

I was looking at the extended - I think there's a real chance we go through the rest of the month dry, maybe one decent chance of rain.

Unfortunately it is starting to look that way.

[Portastorm]

Nobody is in the Spring thread.

I was looking at the extended - I think there's a real chance we go through the rest of the month dry, maybe one decent chance of rain.

Spring thread?! Pppfffttt. We've got more winter coming, dhweather. C'mon man, get with it! Both the operational runs and ensembles from the GFS and Euro suggest much colder and unseasonable weather coming in about a week.

Sadly, you're right about the precip. Models do NOT look promising.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

7 more inches of snow and we will have broken our all time historical 1956/57 snowfall record....records kept back to 1882.

So we definitely have the snowcover to send our cold anywhere......



We will gladly blow all that is still fluffy your way....plus ALL that is still due to fall.

You fellows are dry.....we are going to drown.

Trust me no one up here asked for this.

[Ntxw]

So I was very impressed with what the models have been forecasting for the AO tank this coming week from a meteorological standpoint and decided to dig a little. It's highly unusual to see the AO daily dip below 4 standard deviations in March with the shorter wavelengths and shifting patterns, even more so after the 15th (in fact there has never been).

Source: ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/nor ... rent.ascii - data goes back to 1950.

It will be interesting from this standpoint alone to see if it does indeed happen. Canada will certainly feel the brunt of this late punch from the below normal Arctic, how much of it effects the states is at the mercy of the Pacific which doesn't like to cooperate, so I'd keep conservative view.

[gpsnowman]

Well, we will see how this pans out. But, the local mets have taken notice as well. Steve McCauley(WFAA Dallas) has mentioned a cool down in about a week and the predicted high from CBS Dallas for Friday is 58. Time will tell. Just when I was getting used to 70's and 80's, winter makes one final push.