Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

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JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 24 2013
 
Significant Feature: Surface trough across the central Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:   Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 24C (75F)

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
300 PM AST SUN MAR 24 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEAKLY IN THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND PASSES THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER WHICH WEST OR WEST SOUTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES UNTIL A LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE NORTH
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...MID LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY UNTIL A SHEAR LINE
PASSES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT EVEN THEN THE MAJORITY OF THE
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS EVEN WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVES
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY NIGHT WEAKENING THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH
AND BRINGING A SHEARLINE CLOSE TO PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT REMAINS
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF THE FOLLOWING
WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOUDS FORMED OVER THE INTERIOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND TODAY AND AS OF 2:30 PM AST TWO USGS RAIN GAGES
REPORTED OVER ONE THIRD INCH...ONE NEAR VILLALBA AND ONE NEAR
HORMIGUEROS. THE NWS DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS INCOMMUNICADO. DRYER
AIR IS FOUND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...HOWEVER PATCHES OF MOISTURE ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL SUPPLY BURSTS OF MOISTURE THAT WILL
ALLOW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO GROW IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE AFTERNOONS. A SHEARLINE THEN
APPROACHES THE AREA AND BOOSTS MOISTURE SOMEWHAT...MOVING SHOWER
PROBABILITIES FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
DRY SLOT...IN THE GFS...DUE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY
MORE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT MIGHT
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BUT IN GENERAL THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN REMAINS HIGHLY SPECULATIVE AFTER WEDNESDAY...AND THE DRY SLOT
COULD DISAPPEAR FROM THE MODEL SOLUTION AS EASILY AS THE COLD
FRONT COULD HANG BACK...THEREFORE POPS REMAIN NO HIGHER THAN 40
PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION...BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST
24/22Z. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/12Z. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST
AT 10 MPH OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...A WEAK SWELL TRAIN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST
HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING AND SEAS HAVE
RISEN TO 6 TO 7 FEET AT THE NORTHERN BUOY 41043. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE TOMORROW. THE NEXT SWELL EVENT SHOULD ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH SIMILAR HEIGHTS. SEAS ABOVE 7 FEET ARE NOT EXPECTED
BEFORE FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 87 74 84 / 20 20 0 10
STT 74 85 75 85 / 10 10 20 20

[Macrocane]

An update on the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the unusually strong cold front that affected us in the first days of March: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2302168#p2302168

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Good weather will prevail today thru Wednesday with only isolated showers in interior PR in the afternoons.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
522 AM AST MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND
HOLD THROUGH MID WEEK THEN BEGIN TO ERODE AS DEEP POLAR TROUGH
EVOLVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION WILL
GENERATE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS...OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ALONG THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z. SERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT WITH GUST OF
25KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND INFLUENCE THE
PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BTWN 25/14-21Z.


&&

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOYS ARE SHOWING A DECREASING TREND ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. TODAY...SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AND WINDS OF 17 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 92 74 90 73 / 20 10 20 0
STT 85 75 85 75 / 0 20 20 10

[cycloneye]

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JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 25 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 31C (88F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
323 PM AST MON MAR 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE
EAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY.
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MID LEVELS
REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT FROM THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER
SPREADING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR COMMUNICATIONS RETURNED THIS AFTERNOON.
MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED IN THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ZONE 732...BUT IT WAS DRY OVER PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER APPEARED JUST AFTER 3
PM IN SOUTHEAST ISABELA. HIGH PRESSURE...SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS WITH ONLY PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO FORM IN THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF PUERTO RICO EACH
AFTERNOON HOWEVER...UNTIL THE SHEAR LINE STALL OVER PUERTO RICO
ON FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS MOSTLY DRY EVEN WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AFFECT THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING.
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS ONTO THE
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT/SHEARLINE...WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY...AND THEREFORE LITTLE
PROGRESS IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO RETREAT ON SUNDAY
AND THE GFS MODEL SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT
ALSO SHOWS MOISTURE FOLLOWING IT FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS EARLY AS
LATE MORNING EASTER SUNDAY. AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z. SELY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT WITH GUST OF
25KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND INFLUENCE
THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BTWN 25/14-21Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DO SO UNTIL WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL PULSES OF SWELL WILL APPROACH THE
AREA AFTER WEDNESDAY...BUT LOCAL WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST SHY OF 7 FEET AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ONLY AFTER THE SHEAR LINE MOVES INTO PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 88 73 87 / 10 20 10 20
STT 76 85 75 85 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

The fourth cold surge of March is arriving to Central America, normally we only have only one in March. Northerly winds are expected tomorrow and will last at least through Thursday. Latest EPAC TWD:

...DISCUSSION...

GAP WINDS...A VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS INDUCING STRONG NLY FLOW THROUGH
THE CHIVELA PASS...AND INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AS NOTED BY
LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE 1854 UTC OSCAT PASS PROVIDED
OBSERVATIONS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE GULF. AN ARC CLOUD WAS
EARLIER NOTED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY PROPAGATING S AND SW
AWAY FROM THE GULF INDICATING THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CURRENT
GAP WIND EVENT. IN ADDITION...SALINAS CRUZ IN THE STATE OF
OAXACA MEXICO WAS REPORTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KT. A SHIP
OBSERVATION WITH CALL SIGN "A8NQ6" REPORTED WINDS TO NEAR GALE
FORCE JUST S OF THE GULF NEAR 15N95W JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 40 KT NEAR DAYBREAK TODAY AS COLD
DENSE AIR RELATED TO THE STRONG HIGH PRES SURGES S THROUGH
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND ACROSS THE GULF. THE SEAS IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 14-15 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND TO 16-17 FT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WED
MORNING WHEN THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED. THE PRES GRADIENT
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLACKEN LATE WED INTO THU ALLOWING FOR
THE GALE CONDITIONS TO DIMINISH LATE THU MORNING.

INCREASING TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN REGION ARE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO EARLY WED MORNING...WHEN
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 20-25 KT WITH BUILDING SEAS
TO AROUND 8 FT. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON THU WITH
SEAS RANGING FROM 8 TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE ASSISTANCE OF THE
NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW.

SEAS GENERATED IN BOTH GAP WIND AREAS...TEHUANTEPEC AND PAPAGAYO
ARE FORECAST TO MERGE LATE WED WITH 8-11 FT SEAS COVERING THE
WATERS FROM 07N TO 13N BETWEEN 89W AND 105W.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry weather will prevail until Thursday when moisture starts to increase. Better moisture bringing scatered showers caused by a nearby front will arrive on Friday and linger into Saturday.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
454 AM AST TUE MAR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MID LEVELS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A LOW PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY AND IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT FROM
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SPREADING MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED EAST NORTHEAST OF OUR REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE STABLE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. ON THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH LOCAL
EFFECTS AND DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT NOW LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL DIG SOUTHEAST AND
APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER TODAY. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT FROM
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER SPREADING THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARD EXPECTED. SOME
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z.
SERLY WINDS AROUND 10-20KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP AND INFLUENCE THE PREVAILING TRADE WINDS BTWN 26/14-21Z.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE BEGUN TO DIMINISH TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
NNW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS...BUT LOCAL WATERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 7 FEET. WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST ONLY AFTER THE SHEAR LINE MOVES INTO PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 73 87 73 / 20 10 20 20
STT 85 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 26 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Macrocane]

Another update in the Central American Cold Surges Thread now with the observations from the 2nd March event: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2302283#p2302283

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST TUE MAR 26 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE REGRESSING FURTHER EAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST AND INDUCE AN
EAST NORTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS IN TURN WILL TIGHTEN THE LOCAL PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASE THE PREVAILING TRADE WIND FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND.
BY THAT TIME...EXPECT THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SHEAR LINE
TO STALL WEST AND JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP CREATE A
MOIST LOW TO MID LEVEL CONVERGENT ZONE ACROSS THE REGION. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST
UNTIL WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY ERODE DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS A BROAD POLAR TROUGH MOVES EASTWARDS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OVERALL DRY AND RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
ONLY ISOLATED SHORT LIVED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF
THE ISLANDS. EXPECT A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL SCENARIO BY
THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
A BRAND OF FRONTAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION WHILE A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
SETS UP THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER AND THUS A BETTER CHANCE FOR LOCAL CONVECTION
ACROSS THE ISLANDS AND SURROUNDING WATERS. SO FAR BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE...LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST ACTIVE PERIOD...WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
ON FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AS THE NORTHEAST WIND FLOW BECOMES
MORE EASTERLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAZARD EXPECTED. SOME AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW PUERTO RICO LATER THIS AFT. SERLY
WINDS AROUND 10-20KT DOMINATING THIS AFT.

&&

.MARINE...OVERALL TRANQUIL SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NNW SWELL WILL APPROACH THE REGIONAL
WATERS...AND BRING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOCAL SEAS. AT THIS
TIME HOWEVER...WAVE HEIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET.
LOCAL TRADE WINDS WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.

&&

.CLIMATE...SO FAR THE MAXIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES TODAY
HAS TIED THE DAILY RECORD SET AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN AIRPORT SAN
JUAN/P.R. IN 1984.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 85 / 10 20 20 20
STT 74 85 74 84 / 20 20 20 20

[Macrocane]

It has been HOT in Central America in the last few days, fortunately the cold front is going to bring a relief.

March 24, 2013 observations:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.4°C (63.3°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 7.2°C (45.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23.8°C (74.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.3°C (63.1°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 10.7°C (51.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 13°C (55°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 16.3°C (61.3°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 22.8°C (73.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 34.2°C (93.6°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 21, 2012
Guatemala city, Guatemala 26.2°C (79.2°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.3°C (75.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 40.7°C (105.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 25.8°C (78.4°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 35.9°C (96.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 33°C (91°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 28°C (82°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 36°C (97°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 34°C (93°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 32°C (90°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.5°C (85.1°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.4°C (65.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 34.6°C (94.3°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.2°C (91.8°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.7°C (78.3°F)

The observations for March 25, 2013

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17.0°C (62.6°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 5.0°C (41.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 26.7°C (80.1°F) WARMEST SINCE MAY 18 2011
San Salvador, El Salvador 17.8°C (64.0°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 15.4°C (59.7°F) Warmest since June 7, 2012
San Miguel, El Salvador 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 17°C (63°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 24°C (75°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 18°C (64°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 7.8°C (46.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.3°C (72.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.4°C (74.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.9°C (62.4°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 30.8°C (87.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 36°C (96.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.6°C (90.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 22.4°C (72.3°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 37.1°C (98.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 32°C (90°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 39°C (102°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 36°C (97°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 33°C (91°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 11 2007
San Jose, Costa Rica 30.0°C (86.0°F) HOTTEST SINCE SEPTEMBER 28, 2011
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 18.3°C (64.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.3°C (95.5°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.3°C (91.9°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.7°C (78.3°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Mainly dry and very warm weather will prevail until Thursday when moisture starts to increase. Better moisture bringing scatered showers caused by a nearby front will arrive on Friday and linger into Saturday.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 60W WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD TO
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC. TROF BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A SFC FRONT FRI NIGHT-SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TODAY AS
S/W ENERGY BEGINS TO ROTATE AROUND DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS
THE WRN ATLC. AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING 900-775 MB LAPSE RATES OF
7.5C AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT
IN VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. DESPITE LOW LEVEL DRYNESS...SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE MAY BE ENOUGH TO IGNITE ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. STORM MOTION WOULD BE ERRATIC DUE TO WEAK
STEERING WINDS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THEN INCREASES RAPIDLY EARLY THU WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A SFC TROF LOCATED OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. LATEST GFS
IS VERY AGGRESIVE DEVELOPING PRECIP THU MORNING SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS UPWARD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE THU NIGHT AS SFC FRONT GETS
CLOSER. CLOUDS AND MOISTURE GET DEEPER FRI WITH PRECIP LIKELY
ACROSS MANY AREAS EXCEPT ST. CROIX. WINDS INCREASE FRI NIGHT AS
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT SUN WHILE UPPER TROF LINGERS AROUND. GFS
MORE AGGRESIVE THAN ECMWF DRYING THINGS OUT. GEFS SHOW A MORE GRADUAL
DRYING TREND STARTING SUN NIGHT AS REMNANT MOISTURE DISSIPATES AND
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES. BY MID NEXT WEEK...ECMWF SHOWS A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 27/17Z.SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER NW
PUERTO RICO BTWN 17Z-21Z. LATEST 27/00Z TJSJ SOUNDING INDICATED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FROM THE SURFACE UP TO
10K FEET.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH TODAY BUT BUILD 5-7 FT POSSIBLY UP
TO 8 FT OVER THE WEEKEND IN NORTH SWELLS AND STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS WITH APPROACH OF FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY HOT...DRY AND UNSTABLE TODAY WILL RESULT IN
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER COASTAL AREAS. MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL HAVE
A RISK OF ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY AS ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE. STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND ERRATIC.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY ON THU AS DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...RECORD FOR TODAY AT SJU IS ONLY 90F AND WE ARE LIKELY
TO BE WARMER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY SO IT IS PRETTY MUCH DEFINITE
THAT A NEW RECORD WILL BE ESTABLISHED LATER TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OFF SOMEWHAT THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 74 84 74 / 0 0 40 40
STT 84 77 77 77 / 0 0 40 40

[Gustywind]

Thanks to you guys all the Lesser Antilles residents appreciate your daily reports . Not much changes in Guadeloupe: very dry and hot... but hopefully since 3 days we have some intermittent rainshowers. Whereas, that's always very modest rainfall to stop the severe drought on the island.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 27 2013
 
Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the Caribbean.

Morning:  Mostly sunny.

Afternoon: Partly cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Macrocane]

Winds have strengthened today in Central America, the cold front now extend to Honduras/Nicaragua border:



GAP WINDS...
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...STRONG HIGH PRES EXTENDS FROM SRN TEXAS TO
THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH AN ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRES
GRADEINT JUST INLAND SE MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
AS A RESULT...N WINDS SURGING THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO AND
DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 30 TO 40 KT...WITH SEAS
IN THE RANGE OF 12-18 FT. THE LATEST SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD TONGUE OF TEMPERATURES...DUE TO THE
ONGOING UPWELLING FROM THE GALE WINDS...SITUATED FROM THE SW
PART OF THE GULF SSE TO 13.5N95W AND BETWEEN 94W AND 96W. THE
PRES GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX AFTER SUNRISE ON WED WITH
WINDS DIMINISHING TO A MINIMAL GALE WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
DAYBREAK THU THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH TO 20-25 KT THU AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15
KT THU EVENING...EXPECT ANOTHER N SURGE TO 20-25 KT LATE THU
NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY ON FRI. ONE LAST NORTHERLY
SURGE...BUT AT ONLY 10-15 KT IS EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO MID
MORNING ON SAT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY INCREASING TO 20 TO
25 KT IN AND JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...WITH
THESE CONDITIONS EXTENDING AS FAR W AS 10N88W. THE TIGHT
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THESE CONDITIONS WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT
EXTENDING TO NEAR 09N90W BY LATE TONIGHT...AND TO JUST E OF 90W
BY LATE THU NIGHT. SEAS JUST DOWNSTREAM FROM THE GULF ARE
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 9 OR 10 FT LATE TONIGHT...THEN LOWER
SLIGHTLY THU.

GULF OF PANAMA...N WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO LAST LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI WITH BRIEF SURGES OF
HIGHER SPEEDS POSSIBLY IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT.

[cycloneye]

Let's see if rain arrives from Thursday afternoon and lingers thru the weekend to aliviate the deficit of rainfall that PR and adjacent islands are going thru.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
317 PM AST WED MAR 27 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS. THEN THE RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN. IT WILL PASS THROUGH PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS ON FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE BUILDS SLOWLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT MID LEVELS AND FADES AFTER WEDNESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY APPROACHING THE LOCAL
AREA. IT WILL MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO LIFT ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE IN THE AREA DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS WERE SEEN MOVING THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
THIS MORNING AND SENDING OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AHEAD OF THEM INTO
THE DRIER AIR. THIS SAME DRIER AIR IS HINDERING THEIR PROGRESS
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. NEVERTHELESS IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE PATCH OF
MOISTURE NOW OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL HAVE
SHIFTED AT LOWER LEVELS BY SATURDAY AND THIS SHOULD BRING SHOWERS
TO THE NORTH COAST AND MUCH OF THE ISLAND ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS THEN CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FRONT
RETREATS AND HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO REBUILD AT UPPER LEVELS.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR ALL STATIONS EXCEPT LOCAL BRIEF MVFR IN THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS TILL AFTER 28/06Z. MOISTURE INCREASES OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH 28/22Z WITH CONVECTION
FORMING AFT 28/15Z OVER THE INTERIOR OF PUERTO RICO AND SPREADING
OVER TJMZ...TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJPS. EXPECT TJSJ TO REMAIN VFR
HOWEVER.

&&

.MARINE...NORTHEAST SWELL OF ABOUT 3 FEET WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THAT RAMPS UP
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS ONLY AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 7 FOOT SEAS
DURING THIS TIME IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF AMZ710 ATLANTIC
WATERS AND IT HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS. SMALL CRAFT WILL
NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 73 83 / 10 20 20 40
STT 73 83 72 84 / 10 10 10 20

[msbee]

St. Maarten had a nice rainy morning...FINALLY!



My little backyard rain gauge measured 1 inch......much needed.
We have been hot and dry just like most of the Caribbean.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

St. Maarten had a nice rainy morning...FINALLY!

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/curre ... GA9Agw.jpg

My little backyard rain gauge measured 1 inch......much needed.
We have been hot and dry just like most of the Caribbean.

Barbara

Great to see that rain finnally falled there. Hopefully the forecast for rain in PR starting on Thursday pans out as we need it badly. It was announced today that some lakes are starting to go below the normal status so fingers crossed in the next few days here.

[Macrocane]

The cold front arrived yesterday, the winds increased but the really cold air began to surge until this morning so the temperatures yesterday were still very warm in some locations:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 21.4°C (70.5°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 16.7°C (62.1°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.1°C (48.4°F) Warmest since October 26, 2012
Zacapa, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Los Andes, El Salvador 12.9°C (55.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 24.6°C (76.3°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F) Warmest since January 11, 2012
Jinotega, Nicaragua 21°C (70°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 4.4°C (39.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 23.0°C (73.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 23.7°C (74.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 16.1°C (61.0°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 26.0°C (78.8°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 23.6°C (74.5°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 18.6°C (65.5°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 31.0°C (87.8°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 32.3°C (90.1°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 16.0°C (60.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.4°C (102.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 20°C (68°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 40°C (104°F) HOTTEST SINCE MARCH 4 2012
Managua, Nicaragua 37°C (99°F) HOTTEST SINCE MAY 5 2011
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.3°C (82.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 13.5°C (56.3°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.2°C (97.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 33.4°C (92.1°F)
Boquete, Panama 23.9°C (75.0°F)