2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting SPC discussion for Central Texas. Haven't seen much advertisement about it. All I care about is getting rain!

SPC AC 191254

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2013

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/S TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...BROAD SWATH OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL
CHARACTERIZE UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS ROUGHLY ERN 2/3 OF CONUS...E
OF PROGRESSIVE SYNOPTIC RIDGE NOW CROSSING PAC COAST. BY
20/12Z...THIS RIDGE SHOULD EXTEND FROM AZ-AB. ANCHORING CYCLONIC
GYRE NOW CENTERED OVER LS AREA SHOULD MEANDER ERRATICALLY NEAR LS
BEFORE EJECTING ON DAY-2. WEAK PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY E OF RIDGE...OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SERN NV. THIS
FEATURE IS FCST TO MOVE ESEWD ACROSS SRN ROCKIES TODAY...REACHING
SRN PORTIONS TX PANHANDLE AND ADJOINING SOUTH-PLAINS REGION AROUND
00Z...THEN LA/LOWER DELTA REGION BY END OF PERIOD.

AT SFC...COLD FRONT WAS DRAWN AT 11Z FROM WRN SC SWWD ACROSS CENTRAL
FL PANHANDLE TO N-CENTRAL GULF...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY OVER NWRN
GULF OFFSHORE TX/LA TO NEAR BRO. FRONT AND RELATED THERMAL/THETAE
GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND RETREAT NWD SOMEWHAT
TODAY OVER S TX.

...CENTRAL/S TX...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTN OVER
PORTIONS EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION AND WRN HILL COUNTRY...INITIALLY
HIGH-BASED WITH POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STG TO MRGLLY SVR GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH EVENING...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING UPSCALE EXPANSION OF ANY LATE-AFTN ACTIVITY...LEADING TO
INCREASING COVERAGE/DENSITY OF LARGE HAIL THREAT IN PARTICULAR. MAIN CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR RELATED OUTLOOK UPGRADE INCLUDE...
1. APCHG MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED SUBTLE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT INCREASE MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY AND REINFORCE ALREADY STEEP
LAPSE RATES ALOFT...
2. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ALONG AND N OF FRONT IN
ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT...MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED WAA...
3. ISALLOBARIC PROCESSES ON BOTH SIDE OF BOUNDARY LEADING TO
INCREASING CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC FORCING...AND
4. VERY CONSISTENT TIMING AND GEN MESOSCALE REGION OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE GROWTH THIS EVENING AMONGST LATEST
OPERATIONAL PROGS...MAJORITY OF SREF MEMBERS...AND
CONVECTION-ALLOWING/HIGH-RES GUIDANCE.

LOW-LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION -- BOTH AT AND ABOVE SFC -- SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO OFFSET AFTERNOON DIABATIC HEATING/MIXING IN
SUPPORT OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE...VEERING/INCREASING
FLOW WITH HEIGHT THROUGH MOST OF LOWER-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE SHOULD
LEAD TO 50-60 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...INDICATING POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY SHOUDL SHIFT EWD TO ESEWD TOWARD MID-UPPER
TX COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH GEN DECREASE IN ORGANIZED SVR
THREAT INTO SE TX.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 03/19/2013

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[cycloneye]

A severe event occured on the 18th in the Southeast region when 3 Tornadoes occured including what the NWS has classified as an EF2. Also,there were many reports of very strong winds and hail.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/1 ... _rpts.html



Chris Holcomb ‏@ChrisHolcomb
NWS survey team determines EF2 tornado in Meriwether/Pike county storm with 120mph winds.

[TexasF6]

Uhmmm, no one experienced that MASSIVE HAILSTORM that woke me up in NW Austin!!!!!!!!!!!!?????? Wow what a storm!!!! Ping Pong sized hail here, 1.50 in. GNight!

[weatherdude1108]

Uhmmm, no one experienced that MASSIVE HAILSTORM that woke me up in NW Austin!!!!!!!!!!!!?????? Wow what a storm!!!! Ping Pong sized hail here, 1.50 in. GNight!

Woke me up!! We got marbles that accumulated. No damage except a few twigs here and there. I took out a measuring reel and measured a half inch diameter. 0.25-0.4 inch rain depending on gauge.

Nothing like the ping pong balls we got four years ago next week!

[Ntxw]

Pattern is still blocky in the high latitudes. March will likely finish out without any large outbreaks (moderate to high risk) and first half of April may not be active either until this blocking subsides. Localized events like we have seen recently can occur (anytime really) but no widespread tornado outbreak seems imminent anytime soon as the pattern remains unfavorable and cooler more stable air mostly dominates the eastern CONUS and the gulf. There are signs that the second half of April may provide some activity perhaps back to normal but that is still too far away to say with any certainty.

[cycloneye]

This is the the new SPC page.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/new/

[cycloneye]

Video of March 24 Orlando Tornado

[vbhoutex]

Video of March 24 Orlando Strong Winds

Was this a verified tornado? I didn't see anything that made me think it was a tornado. Looked like very strong straight line winds to me.

[cycloneye]

Video of March 24 Orlando Strong Winds

Was this a verified tornado? I didn't see anything that made me think it was a tornado. Looked like very strong straight line winds to me.

There has not been anything confirmed yet so I changed to strong winds.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/last3hours.html

[Bunkertor]

Pic from the 4 th round of the Shell Houston Open

[Ntxw]

The historic -AO state will likely end in mid April. I suspect a change in the weather pattern over North America with more southerly flow. This will increase instability as better moisture feed will come from the gulf and spark severe weather however the gulf has spent many days cooler than normal and remains so. Guidance suggest near and after the 10th of the month a strong storm will crash into the southwest and kick out into the plains. This may be our first true chance of a tornado outbreak, caveat once again is that it is still a couple of weeks away.

[cycloneye]

If anyone has photos or videos of the Tornadoes and the damage from this April 9-11 event, don't hesitate to post them here.

[cycloneye]

This is in the St Louis area.

[cycloneye]

Massive Tornado in Alabama.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10200439438581109

[cycloneye]

This is in Petal that is a suburb of Hattisburg MS.

[cycloneye]

It looks like the next severe weather event may occur by mid next week.

[cycloneye]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

VALID 151200Z - 201200Z

CORRECTED FOR SEVERE THREAT DAYS 5 AND 6

...DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOR MOISTURE TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AS UPPER TROUGHING SETTLES OVER THE WRN U.S. ONE SIGNIFICANT
LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL FORCE A SFC FRONT INTO OK MONDAY AND DEEP
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP. HOWEVER...IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. OF POTENTIALLY MORE
SIGNIFICANCE WILL BE THE CONTINUED MOISTENING THAT SHOULD LEAD TO
MORE ROBUST ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE NEAR A DRYLINE/FRONTAL
INTERSECTION WITHIN BROAD STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT. PROGRESSION OF
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY SUPPORTS AN EWD SHIFT OF
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY5 PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF
MO INTO NERN TX.

..DARROW.. 04/12/2013

[Ntxw]

Latest guidance suggest another system not that different from the one that just happened come next week. Once again a stout cold front will be racing down the plains and depending on how much the gulf warms and if we get good flow return will dictate cap breakage before the cold air cleans house. Snow/ice in the high and central plains and a squall line along the front. I'd place money on the southeast getting the best chance at another good dose of severe weather and maybe tornadoes.

[cycloneye]

Tower on Prarie Point road in Noxubee County MS.

[cycloneye]

Here is how the 2013 season is doing at this time. This year has started below the 2012 activity.Let's see how things pick up as the peak of the severe season approaches. The severe event of April 17-18 promises to be active so let's see how the stats change after that event.

Code: Select all

TORNADO TOTALS AND RELATED DEATHS...THROUGH THU APR 11 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1003 AM CDT FRI APR 12 2013

       ...NUMBER OF TORNADOES...    NUMBER OF       KILLER
                                    TORNADO DEATHS  TORNADOES
    ..2013.. 2012 2011 2010 3YR               3YR             3YR
    PREL ACT  ACT  ACT  ACT  AV 13  12  11 10  AV  13 12 11 10 AV
JAN  87   74  79   16   30   42  1   2   0  0   1   1  2  0  0  1
FEB  46    -  57   63    1   40  1  15   1  0   5   1  7  1  0  3
MAR  18    - 154   75   33   87  0  43   1  1  14   0 10  1  1  4
APR  23    - 206  758  139  368  1   6 363 11 127   1  1 43  2 15
MAY   -    - 121  326  304  250  -   0 178  7  62   -  0  9  4  4
JUN   -    - 111  160  324  198  -   4   3 12   6   -  2  1  6  3
JUL   -    -  37  103  146   95  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  1  0
AUG   -    -  38   57   55   50  -   0   2  1   1   -  0  2  1  1
SEP   -    -  39   51   57   49  -   0   0  2   1   -  0  0  2  1
OCT   -    -  37   23  108   56  -   0   0  0   0   -  0  0  0  0
NOV   -    -   7   44   53   35  -   0   5  0   2   -  0  2  0  1
DEC   -    -  53   15   32   33  -   0   0  9   3   -  0  0  4  1
---  --   -- ---  ---- ---- ---- -  -- --- -- ---   - -- -- -- --
SUM 174   74 939 1691 1282 1303  3  70 553 45 222   3 22 59 21 34