ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

Interesting warm pool going up to the surface at Nino 3 and part of 3.4. Let's see if this is a temporary trend or it has legs.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

In Cebu, Philippines, the temperature is very high (33 - 34 Celsius)

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 3/25/13 update

The ups and downs continue at Nino 3.4 as it went up from -0.3C last week to now -0.1C. Nino 3 warmed up more rapidly at +0.4C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[weatherwindow]

The MJO is in the West Pacific and that is the cause of the present warming trend. The question is if the warming will continue or cooling begins to dominate soon.

Most recent mountain torque event from Asia will allow the MJO to progress into the western Hemisphere (GWO+). This should last until about the end of March. Subtle warming will probably happen on and off. Once the wave returns to the Indian Ocean beginning April we start the process again. If it stalls in Indonesia runaway cooling, if not then we get more warming likely above 0c.

Please explain "mountain torque event" with respect to MJO...let me offer my thanks in advance...Rich

[Ntxw]

Please explain "mountain torque event" with respect to MJO...let me offer my thanks in advance...Rich

In simple terms, when pressures on one side of a mountain range (usually west) is higher than east facing side you get a mountain torque event, or speeding of the earth's rotation. This force enhances westerlies and tends to bring GWO into the +AAM. That extra push helps move the MJO along from it's usual flare up spots in the IO or Maritime Continent into the Pacific and further (phases 6-1) and you have a good propagating MJO instead of a dead one that's stuck in the cooling phases. Usually the Himalayas has the biggest influence in causing such outcomes due to their location and size but they can come from the other major ranges of the world as well.

MT information can be found here http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/aam.90day.total.shtml. Positive values indicates an MT event given off.

[cycloneye]

Here is the Australian ENSO update:

Tropical Pacific ENSO neutral
Issued on Tuesday 26 March 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO


The tropical Pacific remains neutral - neither El Nino nor La Nina. Current atmospheric and oceanic indicators as well as climate model forecasts indicate neutral conditions are likely to continue through the remainder of the southern hemisphere autumn.

Despite the April to June period being historically the most difficult time of the year for making ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) predictions, all dynamical models agree that neither El Nino nor La Nina is likely to develop in the coming months. Likewise, observations of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and atmospheric indicators have consistently remained within neutral ranges since spring 2012.

Following Australia's warmest summer on record with respect to land and ocean temperatures, southern waters remain unusually warm. High ocean temperatures may promote increased local rainfall in favourable weather conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia%u2019s climate from December through to April. The consensus of current model projections is for neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Ntxw]

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence upon Australia%u2019s climate from December through to April. The consensus of current model projections is for neutral IOD conditions for late autumn into early winter.


http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/[/b]

Thanks for posting this information! I am most intrigued to follow this part of the context. I am just learning how the IO works and am curious to see what kind of moisture feed/tropical waves comes from this region through Africa and into the Atlantic basin. It seems they are predicting a normal rainfall pattern for the monsoon at this time.

[dexterlabio]

The above-average SST's emerging in the eastern Pacific is quite suspicious. Are we in for another surprise this year?

[cycloneye]

Interesting tool to follow how Nino 3.4 and the other ENSO regions are doing on a daily basis.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/

[Ptarmigan]

Interesting tool to follow how Nino 3.4 and the other ENSO regions are doing on a daily basis.

http://oi47.tinypic.com/33ymfqq.jpg

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/

Thanks for the link.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Let's see what the CPC says today about has Nino 3.4 has performed. Those very warm anomalies have all faded over the past week, and cool neutral continues--not that they really ever left--seem to be returning.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/1/13 update

No change from last week's update as Nino 3.4 remains at -0.1C.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Overall the GWO is still in +AAM mode which is a warming signal while SOI has strung together some good positive values which is a cooling signal. That sounds to me like a net gain of not much . Overall still no strong indication of a pending La Nina or El Nino growing in April.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,what do you think about this latest Early April update?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,what do you think about this latest Early April update?

Looks like not much new for the summer and fall during the Hurricane season. Usually by now if La Nina or El Nino were imminent we start seeing the dynamical and statistical models point that way and they aren't at this time. Later in the year seems there's not much clue since the statistics point to all three with equal chances, I would weigh heavier on neutral since Nino/Nina doesn't really get jump started late in the year.

[cycloneye]

ENSO is at this moment in a dead Neutral status. Although the PDO has warmed a little,no appreciable changes are expected in the near future.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Increased trade winds are forecast over the next few days and an upwelling kelvin wave is moving through. The equatorial Pacific should cool.

[Ntxw]

ENSO is at this moment in a dead Neutral status. Although the PDO has warmed a little,no appreciable changes are expected in the near future

I took notice of this, there is dramatic cool waters now rising around Japan and warming east/se of Hawaii. This is +PDO, the dominant cold patch east of Hawaii the past two+ years seems to be losing it's grip. As a result the sub-surface cold pool in the east-central Pacific has all but weakened to almost of little influence. GWO refuses to get out of the +AAM so I do not expect any cooling of significance this month. The variable fluctuations will continue until a dominant signal rises. The latest MJO forecast is for the wave to go incoherent and not be a big factor to warming or cooling the next 20-40 days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

While on the subject of the PDO, it's warming is a result of lower-than-average heights where high pressure usually exists. The GFS forecast is for a return of high pressure north of Hawaii over the next two weeks. This should cool the waters again off the West Coast.

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 4/8/13 update

Nino 3.4 goes up from -0.1C that was last week to +0.1C in this week's update.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf