Florida Weather

[AdamFirst]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf4iy9wEBFc

There is video of the squall line rolling through over the Arnold Palmer Invitational supplied by the PGA Tour

[cycloneye]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sf4iy9wEBFc

There is video of the squall line rolling through over the Arnold Palmer Invitational supplied by the PGA Tour

Wow,that is very impressive. They postponed golf play until Monday at 10 AM EDT.

[NDG]

Well that sucks, I left Orlando Friday for vacation and I missed the most active wx event in Orlando in probably 6 months, in Nola where not a drop of rain fell, chilly this morning here 39 degrees, my wife is glad that I told her to bring our winter clothing.
This reminds me of a Spring Break back in the early 90s when the beaches of the FL panhandle had many nights with lows in the 30s and highs only in the 50s.

[gsytch]

They are forecasting upper 30's even here in coastal Pasco county for Tue and Wed nights, and highs barely 60F on Tue. YUCK! I leave for NJ on Thur as my MOm passed, and they are predicting slushy snow up there. In late March? This pattern needs to change. I'm watching winds as strong as yesterday now, but from the cold NW, and it is cold out. Yesterday was 81F with 72F dewpoint. Dewpoint is now 48F with nasty winds and 60F. What a spring break I will have this week!

[northjaxpro]

Currently only 53.6 degrees at the noon hour with brisk northwesterly winds , despite the strong March sunshine. The max today will be lucky to reach 60 at best. Strong cold air advection well underway across the region. I am here at home today and will be making preparations to protect my tender vegetationfor the next three mornings as temps are going to be well down into the 30s here, with possibly approaching a freeze here on Wednesday and Thursday morning. We may possibly tie or break record low temps in the region this week.

The latest freeze to occur officially at the NWS Jacksonville office was April 8, 2007. So this isn't unprecedented, but extremely rare to have a possible freeze in the early Spring in these parts. What a cruel prank old man winter is doing to us all uh? But, as I referenced yesterday on my post on the previous page, there is a light at the end of the tunnel folks beginning this Easter weekend. (knocking on wood)

[Jake8898]

Is it possible for anyone to venture a reasonable guess as to the temps in the Pensacola-Destin area around the 6th of April? Secondly, are there models that run long term like they do for tropical development?

[northjaxpro]

Is it possible for anyone to venture a reasonable guess as to the temps in the Pensacola-Destin area around the 6th of April? Secondly, are there models that run long term like they do for tropical development?

Yes. The EURO and GFS and its ensemble models have long range model runs that extend out 14 days. This is the case yearly, as they do the same during the tropical season to answer your second question.

As for venturing a guess two weeks out from now, well, I will give it my best educated guess if you go by the averages. The average max temps for the first week of April across North Florida and the panhandle region is around 80 degrees and the average mins in the mid-upper 50s. Now, I am hoping, like most everyone I would imagine, that the negative Arctic Oscillation pattern we have been locked in for most of this month and still in currently, will finally bottom out this week and start to turn the other way going into April, as we would expect as we are in Spring now. Hopeful that temps will moderate at least back to seasonal norms across the region by Easter.

BTW, our normal high temp for late March is 75 degrees and our normal low is 52. We will be running 15-20 degrees below what the average is for late March. This puts in perspective just how unseasonably cold this week will be, as highs today is only expected to be near 60 and again tomorrow, and lows are expected to get well into the 30s the next three mornings here, with freezes possible especially Wednesday and Thursday morning.

[Jake8898]

Wow, thanks!

Any of the accessible weather forecasters discuss the Arctic Oscillation pattern and potential reversal or are you giving details that they generally fail to mention?

[northjaxpro]

Wow, thanks!

Any of the accessible weather forecasters discuss the Arctic Oscillation pattern and potential reversal or are you giving details that they generally fail to mention?

Well, most experts and forecasters always discuss and research constantly how atmospheric patterns evolve across the globe Jake. Details with the AO are studied carefully, compiled and are always accessible from the reliable global model output runs. The AO is also always analyzed and discussed, not only as pertained to the winter season, but in relation to atmospheric global warming. Primarily, the AO is a study of surface observation pressure patterns in the northern hemisphere which can fluctuate/ocillate toward positive or negative. Positive AO keeps Low pressure in the arctic regions, which is always a good thing for keeping the bitter cold air bottled up and from entering the U.S. in most cases. A negative AO is when High Pressure is over the polar regions, which causes the polar jet stream to dip far south below the mid latitudes and bring in very cold air to the U.S. and Europe, which is occuring currently. You can always get your fill about atmospheric global warming and also the AO through researching or browsing through many different weather-related blogs, or elsewhere on the web. Also, you can check out related sources on this topic at any library.

[gatorcane]

Dew points continue to plunge across the Central and Southern peninsula as the unseasonably dry and cold air ushers in...

[psyclone]

Wow, thanks!

Any of the accessible weather forecasters discuss the Arctic Oscillation pattern and potential reversal or are you giving details that they generally fail to mention?

One important thing worth remebering is that the gulf waters will retain their memory of the recent anomalously cold weather long after that pattern has abated (in the form of below normal temps) so any effort at much warmer daytime temps will likely be tempered by a quick-to-move-in and unseasonably chilly seabreeze. i would anticipate a higher liklihood of cooler than normal daytime temps for for this reason...all else being equal.

[FireRat]

Sorry to hear about your mother gsytch,
I hope you are OK and that the weather cooperates during your stay in NJ.

Here in the southern peninsula, we are beginning to feel that drastic cooldown. What a difference a day makes, when yesterday I was sweating in the sweltering heat ahead of the front. It was very windy and hot...almost like a hair-dryer. Now it's a brisk 54 and dropping. NWS has lows in the low 40s come tomorrow night and Wed. night. Hard to believe we're in spring when it felt like summer over the weekend and now going back to as if it were the middle of January!

A lot of people are probably going to get sick, clinically speaking, from all these massive temperature swings (by FL standards) in such short time.

[northjaxpro]

Good morning. Gsytch, I also want to extend my deepest condolences to you and your family with the passing of your mother. My prayers go out to all of you and safe travel as well.

Currently 39 degrees at my locale. A freeze wasn't anticipated this morning due to the strong winds and that has panned out. We still have a couple of more hours for the temps to drop, and I would imagine that the temp will drop in the mid-upper 30s before climbing after about 8 a.m.

Today will actually be the coldest day across the region as the lowest heights at 500 mb and the lowest level thicknesses passes over the area the next 24 hours. The max temp today will only reach the upper 50s here, and the gusty northwest winds will make it feel colder. NWS Jax office will likely upgrade the freeze watches to warnings for all interior areas of Northeast Florida for tomorrow morning. The northwest wind is expected to get much lighter by Wednesday morning and that will allow temps to get to or slightly below 32 degree mark in the interior colder spots. May see record lows tied or broken the next few mornings statewide. Frost will be the other big concern in the region Thursday and Friday mornings as the Polar High Pressure axis gets closer to the peninsula to really lighten the winds.

[gsytch]

Thanks Northjaxpro and firerat. Its been a tough few months.
It never got above 64F yesterday with very brisk winds yet held to 50F this morning, as those same brisk winds are coming off the warmer GOM (about a mile away). BUT the next few nights will be some of the coldest in my 25 years of March here. I see Atl;City is expecting something like 47/32 while I am there. Jeesh thats cold. They had record snow of 1.5" yesterday which I am sure is gone now. DO YOU SEE THIS PATTERN CHANGING once this cold air mass shifts and modifies? TWC states this change should begin by the weekend. I want the plastic off the Greenhouse. I have to open during the day, spray to cool off from the hot March sun, and close by 5pm and now put the heat on. Weird.....

[northjaxpro]

Gsytch, I do hopefully see the light at the end of the tunnel. The indications and trends from the models are that hopefully the AO will go to neutral phase on Easter into next week and finally go to fully positive by the middle of April, if not sooner.

Yeah, no doubt this will go down as one of the coldest March on record. Mother Nature always balances things out eventually. We had the unseasonably warm December and January, remember. But since mid February to now, we have paid the price for the earlier warmth we had.

[gatorcane]

Low temperatures across South Florida didn't end up panning out last night as forecasted due to mid-level cloudiness that hung around. I am looking at the obs from metro SE Florida sites and all are at least 5-8 degrees warmer than what the NWS forecasted. Now in the discussion, I see NWS mentioning some uncertainty tonight due to some more cloud cover hanging around. Still, it will be well below normal tonight and through the rest of the week as this cold March continues. But, the 90F+ days and dew points above 70F are just around the corner so get out and enjoy this cool and refreshing weather while it lasts!

[gsytch]

Thankful for the turn. I am tired of this cold. Today is unreal. Late March? I have 56F NNW winds gusting to 25mph and DP at 37F at 1230pm. There is quite a bit of sun to help, with some clouds, but I just got in from the yard and it is brutal out. I am getting prepared for NJ on Thur! High in AtlCity today is 45F. Yuck! This is easily the coldest March day so late I have seen in 25 years, and from what the records say we will smash them for low max.

Gsytch, I do hopefully see the light at the end of the tunnel. The indications and trends from the models are that hopefully the AO will go to neutral phase on Easter into next week and finally go to fully positive by the middle of April, if not sooner.

Yeah, no doubt this will go down as one of the coldest March on record. Mother Nature always balances things out eventually. We had the unseasonably warm December and January, remember. But since mid February to now, we have paid the price for the earlier warmth we had.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, gsytch, for late March, this is about as cold as I can ever remember it being as well. I am pretty sure some record lows will be set across the state the next few mornings. It is only 49 degrees at the noon hour and northwest wind gusting up to 25 mph, making the wind chill right around 40 degrees currently. Strong cold advection continuing across the region, despite the strong late March sun.

The latest surface analysis from WPC really illustrates how rare a cold pattern we have right now for this time of year. Check out the massive 1030+ mb Polar High existing all the way from the Northern Plains down into Texas. Look at the northwesterly flow coming straight down from the polar regions right down across the entire Eastern United States. The 978 mb storm off the coast of Newfoundland and the strong High Pressure across the nation's midsection is providing the tight northwesterly pressure gradient across the Eastern U.S. currently. It is a truly amazing and very impressive cold pattern for late March. Thank goodness this is not January or we would have been looking at likely even a more stronger Polar High Pressure bringing down bitter cold temps with hard freezes deep into the Florida peninsula with this type of pattern for sure.

[northjaxpro]

The NWS Jax office has now upgraded the watches to freeze warnings for all of interior Northeast Florida, including the western and northern areas of the Jax metro area away from the coast and the St. Johns River. Freeze warnings posted now across most of the northern peninsula for tomorrow morning.

[Sanibel]

Unusually cool cold front for this time of the year. We got to 62* mainly because of the late March high sun angle. Blustery.