Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Yes!. Rain finnally will arrive starting this afternoon and it looks like it may linger thru the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
421 AM AST THU MAR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WILL BE
SLOW TO PROGRESS EWD NEXT SVRL DAYS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL
REACH THE AREA FRI NIGHT THEN LINGER AROUND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA STILL UNDER A PWAT MINIMUM THIS MORNING
BUT LIGHT WINDS...DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION SIMILAR
TO YDAY. CONVECTION MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE TSTMS.

PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY TONIGHT AS BROAD TROF PROMOTES
QUICK MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENHANCES MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. SFC
WINDS ALSO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SFC
CONVERGENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE CORDILLERA. ADDED TSTMS FOR
ATLC COASTAL WATERS WHERE K INDICES ARE HIGH...SHOWALTER INDICES
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE AND FORCING LOOKS STRONG. AS S/W ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND BROAD TROF AND SFC FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS
THE AREA EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES AND LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AROUND ST. CROIX WHERE
FRONT MAY NEVER MAKE IT. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
DETAILS ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE OVR THE WEEKEND BUT THE GENERAL
TREND SHOULD BE FOR COOLER...CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
DEAMPLIFYING WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDING OVER THE
REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK. STARTING MON NIGHT...MODELS SHOW A RAPID
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...CONTD VFR XCPT IN ISOLD SHRA MAINLY TNCM/TKPK. FEW OBSCD
MTNS THIS AFT IN SHRA/TSRA. POSBL BRIEF MVFR INCRG WEST PR THIS AFT
AND N PR TONITE. WIND THRU TONITE BLO FL100 VRB TO NE 10 KT OR LESS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS BUILDING OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT IN
NORTH SWELLS. SCA MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ710 IN 430 AM CWF ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STILL VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY AS AREA REMAINS
IN A LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MINIMUM AND MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO BE
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
UNSTABLE WHICH WOULD TEND TO ENHANCE ANY FIRES. QUICK MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH SOME RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 83 74 / 10 20 70 70
STT 84 76 84 76 / 0 0 20 70

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 28 2013
 
Significant Feature: A weak cold front over the Caribbean.

Morning: Parly cloudy.

Afternoon:   Variable cloudy and windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)

 
 


[cycloneye]

Yes!!! 70% chance of showers from Friday thru Saturday. Bring it on!!!!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST THU MAR 28 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SET
UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT PASSES ON MONDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A FRONT SITS ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG TOWARD
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THEN SLOWLY RETREAT
WHILE DISSIPATING LATER IN THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
ONSHORE DURING THE MORNING ON FRIDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES
THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRYING TREND AT LOWER LEVELS IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS ACCOMPANIED THE FRONT IN A NARROW BAND NEAR
THE FRONT OF THE FAIRLY WIDE BOUNDARY AND CLOUDS DEVELOPED DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE WEATHER IN IT CONSOLIDATED.
THE BAND HAS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COOL BUT MOIST AIR BEHIND
IT AND THIS WILL HELP IT ADVANCE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AND THE
MAINLAND OF PUERTO RICO LATER TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE
ISLAND OR JUST TO THE NORTH MAKING SHOWERS LIKELY. THE FLOW WHICH
WILL GUIDE THESE SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE FROM THE
NORTHEAST WHILE SLOWLY VEERING THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN...THERE WILL
BE A SLOW DRYING TREND...AS SHOWERS GO FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED
DURING THE WEEK...AND MID-LEVEL DRYNESS RETURNS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT GENERALLY AFT
29/06Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS INCREASING
THROUGH 29/18Z IN SCT-NMRS SHRA. WINDS BELOW 6 KFT NORTHEAST TO EAST
5 TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS ABOVE 10 KFT INCREASE TO 50 KT WITH HEIGHT TO
35-40 KFT BY 29/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SLOWLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL SPREAD INTO THE PASSAGES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FIRST
SWELL TRAIN WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND MAKE SEAS AROUND AGUADILLA ROUGH. WILL
RAISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY THERE IN A
LATER PACKAGE...BUT THIS SMALL AREA OF HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED IN ZONES WHERE OTHERWISE ONLY AN EXERCISE CAUTION WILL BE
NEEDED. THEN SWELL WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 74 83 / 20 70 70 70
STT 74 84 74 84 / 10 20 70 70

[cycloneye]

Good morning. All I can say is "Fingers crossed with this rain event".




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS FRAGMENTING ON BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...BROAD TROF AND DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD
STILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY SHOWERY FCST OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SVRL FACTORS AGAINST THIS BEING A
SIG RAINFALL EVENT. FIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A DRY
SIGNATURE WITH LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING MOISTURE
EXTENDING UP TO 600 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
AND IS FCST TO STAY BELOW TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. SECOND...JET STREAK DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AND JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST PR THRU THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIRD...K
INDICES ONLY PEAK AT 30 AND INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MUCH NON-
EXISTENT OVER LAND DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE
RATES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS. FOURTH AND LAST...H2 VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FROM
SVRL MODELS FROM THE CPC WEBSITE ALL INDICATE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE MEANING DOWNWARD MOTION.

FCST DETAILS...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST TODAY
BEFORE BEST MOISTURE ARRIVES. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR RIGHT
NOW EXCEPT IN ST. CROIX. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL ZONE SIGS SOUTH OF PR TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSING NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA ON NORTHEAST WINDS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME MODERATE RAINS ACCORDING TO 00Z GFS AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DIGS ACROSS SW ATLC AND JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. ERUOPEAN
MODEL LIKES TO HOLD TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH SUN. GFS SHOWS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN LATE SUN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY SUN
NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SHOW RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND MUCH DRIER ADVECTING IN.

RIDGE BUILDS BY TUE WITH DRY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED STARTING MON AND
THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PERSIST ALL TAF SITES THRU TODAY XCP TJMZ/TJBQ
WHERE FEW PDS MVFR AND PSBL IFR IN SHRA. SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY
ARRIVING AT TJSJ IN AFT AND MAYBE TIST TONITE. MTN OBSC XPCTD BY
AFT. ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE BUT NOT REDUCE COND. LLVL WIND NE 5-15 KT
TO FL050 INCR TO FL100 LATE TODAY. WIND ABV FL100 W INCR WITH HGT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE SAT AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND
NORTH SWELLS BUILD. WILL REEVALUATE CWF SOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 70 70 50 50
STT 74 77 74 78 / 70 70 50 50

[Gustywind]

Good morning. All I can say is "Fingers crossed with this rain event".

http://oi47.tinypic.com/2efp3j9.jpg


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
447 AM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WX FEATURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD MID NEXT WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME IS FRAGMENTING ON BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY. HOWEVER...BROAD TROF AND DECENT MOISTURE SHOULD
STILL RESULT IN A CLOUDY SHOWERY FCST OVER THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...THERE APPEARS TO BE SVRL FACTORS AGAINST THIS BEING A
SIG RAINFALL EVENT. FIRST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A DRY
SIGNATURE WITH LATEST GOES SOUNDER DATA INDICATING MOISTURE
EXTENDING UP TO 600 MB. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE
AND IS FCST TO STAY BELOW TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. SECOND...JET STREAK DYNAMICS LOOK TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH
AND JUST GRAZE NORTHWEST PR THRU THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIRD...K
INDICES ONLY PEAK AT 30 AND INSTABILITY IS PRETTY MUCH NON-
EXISTENT OVER LAND DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND POOR LAPSE
RATES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLC COASTAL
WATERS. FOURTH AND LAST...H2 VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES FROM
SVRL MODELS FROM THE CPC WEBSITE ALL INDICATE POSITIVE ANOMALIES
INDICATING UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE MEANING DOWNWARD MOTION.

FCST DETAILS...ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST TODAY
BEFORE BEST MOISTURE ARRIVES. SHOULD SEE SKIES BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR RIGHT
NOW EXCEPT IN ST. CROIX. SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FRONTAL ZONE SIGS SOUTH OF PR TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
FOCUSING NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA ON NORTHEAST WINDS.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...APPEARS TO BE THE BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME MODERATE RAINS ACCORDING TO 00Z GFS AS ADDITIONAL S/W ENERGY
DIGS ACROSS SW ATLC AND JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE SOMEWHAT. ERUOPEAN
MODEL LIKES TO HOLD TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH SUN. GFS SHOWS
DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN LATE SUN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. BY SUN
NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SHOW RISING MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AND MUCH DRIER ADVECTING IN.

RIDGE BUILDS BY TUE WITH DRY HOT WEATHER EXPECTED STARTING MON AND
THRU THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR TO PERSIST ALL TAF SITES THRU TODAY XCP TJMZ/TJBQ
WHERE FEW PDS MVFR AND PSBL IFR IN SHRA. SHRA AND MVFR LIKELY
ARRIVING AT TJSJ IN AFT AND MAYBE TIST TONITE. MTN OBSC XPCTD BY
AFT. ISOLD SHRA ELSEWHERE BUT NOT REDUCE COND. LLVL WIND NE 5-15 KT
TO FL050 INCR TO FL100 LATE TODAY. WIND ABV FL100 W INCR WITH HGT.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD LATE SAT AS WINDS STRENGTHEN AND
NORTH SWELLS BUILD. WILL REEVALUATE CWF SOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 84 75 84 / 70 70 50 50
STT 74 77 74 78 / 70 70 50 50

Nice pic and funny Yeah, i'm with you Cycloneye let's hope that you can share it with the Lesser Antilles too. Everybody will be glad for sure Let's hope that the rain should be our guest.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 29 2013
 
Significant Feature: A weak cold front over the Caribbean.

Morning: Parly cloudy.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 24C (75F)

 
 


[cycloneye]

Yes! is raining in parts of PR and finnally,the first flood advisories of 2013 have been issued. They are being posted at the proper thread for those.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114852&hilit=&p=2302421#p2302421

[Gustywind]

Yes! is raining in parts of PR and finnally,the first flood advisories of 2013 have been issued. They are being posted at the proper thread for those.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114852&hilit=&p=2302421#p2302421

so good news for you. Not much in Guadeloupe, but scattered showers in some part of the islands, quite good.

[msbee]

Yes! is raining in parts of PR and finnally,the first flood advisories of 2013 have been issued. They are being posted at the proper thread for those.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=114852&hilit=&p=2302421#p2302421

good news Luis....as long as it doesn't rain too much at one time..
hoping some of that reaches over our way

[cycloneye]

Yes,more rain to come this weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
259 PM AST FRI MAR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DEEP LAYER LOW WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICTED A LOW TO MID CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COVERING MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC WATERS...MONA PASSAGE AND MOST OF
PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS HAVE DROPPED OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRUJILLO ALTO AND NORTHEASTERN PUERTO RICO
SINCE MIDNIGHT. OTHER AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PUERTO RICO SUCH AS
BARCELONETA AND ISABELA RECEIVED AT LEAST 2 INCHES. GLOBAL WEATHER
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE US VIRGIN THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SATURDAY WHILE DISSIPATES.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RELOCATE NORTH
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SLOWLY
RETURN TO THE ISLANDS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY...PRODUCING
INTERVALS OF CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...PERIODS OF MVFR ARE LIKELY ALL TAF SITES XCP TJPS AND
TKPK AS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ALSO
TJBQ MAY REMAIN IFR BEYOND 30/02Z. SHRA AND OVC CONDS AND MTN
OBSCURATIONS TO REMAIN THRU 30/22Z. LLVL WIND NE TO E 5-10 KT TO
FL050 INCR TO FL100 LATE TODAY. WIND ABV FL100 W INCR WITH HGT.
WINDS AT 40 KFT UP TO 60 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SCA CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE MONA
PASSAGE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING BETWEEN
6 AND 8 FEET IN THE NEAR-SHORE BUOYS SINCE THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
SEAS HAVE DROPPED AROUND 6 FEET THIS AFTERNOON AT THE OUTER BUOY
41043. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGIONAL WATERS AND THE LOCAL PASSAGES. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN CONTRAST...SEAS MAY
REMAIN AROUND 7 FEET AFTER SATURDAY...DUE TO AN INCOMING NORTH
SWELL THAT WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. THIS MODERATE SWELL MAY BRING
THE SEAS NEAR SCA LEVELS ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 82 75 83 / 60 60 60 60
STT 74 82 74 85 / 40 60 70 70

[msbee]

Even with the little rain we had the other day, the island remains very dry and we have been having a lot of bush fires.
This is a picture today of a fire on the French side.
Photo courteesy of Pierre Brange

[cycloneye]

Even with the little rain we had the other day, the island remains very dry and we have been having a lot of bush fires.
This is a picture today of a fire on the French side.
Photo courteesy of Pierre Brange


https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 5581_n.jpg

Oh boy Barbara. Hopefully I send rain to you.

[Gustywind]

Even with the little rain we had the other day, the island remains very dry and we have been having a lot of bush fires.
This is a picture today of a fire on the French side.
Photo courteesy of Pierre Brange


https://fbcdn-sphotos-c-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 5581_n.jpg

Oh boy Barbara. Hopefully I send rain to you. http://oi47.tinypic.com/2efp3j9.jpg

Cycloneye ... hehe dont' forget that you're our Superman in the tropics.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France Guadeloupe have put Guadeloupe on a yellow alert for a risk of strong showers (5PM).

Given their latest weather forecast: "The absence of trade winds favors development of large quasi stationary thunderstorm cells".

Forecasts:
That night, and tomorrow showers may again be locally significant and storm, with rollups of the same order.

Observed data:
At 12 AM: 40 mm falled on the North-Basse-Terre region. 80mm on the Grands-Fonds and at Capesterre. 100mm at la Soufrière.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Rainy conditions will prevail Saturday and Sunday in PR but things dry out next week.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
432 AM AST SAT MAR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL ZONE NO LONGER DISCERNABLE ON IR IMAGERY OR
BLENDED TPW PRODUCT. SO WE ARE LEFT WITH A SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK
NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA THIS MORNING WHICH WILL BE HARD TO
DISLODGE GIVEN STRONG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTHWEST AND DECENT
UPSLOPE FLOW. ONLY AREAS SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA REMAIN IN THE
CLEAR THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT THAT CLOUDS WILL FILL IN THERE AS
WELL THIS AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. EXPECT MAINLY
STRATIFORM PRECIP NORTH OF THE CORDILLERA TODAY WITH CONVECTIVE
PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA AND CARIBBEAN WATERS.

DEEPER MOISTURE NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SAINT CROIX WILL BE
TRANSPORTED NWWD ACROSS LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND SUN AS LOW-
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE FROM THE ESE IN ADVANCE OF S/W TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVR THE BAHAMAS AND CNTRL CUBA. TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY ALONG WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THAT MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL
MOISTEN UP CONSIDERABLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUN TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ENHANCEMENT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THERE COULD BE ALSO SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVR NW PR AND ATLC OFFSHORE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON WHERE
SHOWALTER INDICES ARE FCST NEAR ZERO.

CONDITIONS DRY OUT RAPIDLY SUN NIGHT AS TROF PULLS AWAY AND
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOT...DRY...WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...LOW CLOUD DECK CONT WITH BASES FL025-030 AT THE BEACHES
AND OBSCG MTNS INTERIOR PR...EXTENDS TO ST. THOMAS. IT IS RETREATING
NORTHWARD AND LIFTING VERY SLOWLY. XPCT CONT MVFR MUCH OF THIS AREA
THRU MORNING...MAY HANG ONTO IT LONGER AT TJSJ/TJBQ THAN TAF IMPLY.
MVFR IN SHRA A FAIR BET TODAY...THIS MORNING AT TISX/TNCM/TKPK AND
MOSTLY LIKELY TONITE AT TISX/TJSJ/TIST/TNCM. LLVL WIND BLO FL050
MAINLY E 15-22 KT VEERING TO W AND INCR WITH HGT ABV.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 7 FT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT
SEAS WILL BUILD AGAIN LATE TONIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING TRADE
WINDS AND BUILDING NORTH SWELLS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 76 83 76 / 70 70 70 10
STT 83 75 84 75 / 60 50 60 20

[Gustywind]

Oh thanks Lords, we're blessed... at least we have water! Very good news for Guadeloupe as yesterday afternoon very juicy amount of water have been reported in some areas of the butterfly island. For info, Meteo-France Guadeloupe reported 300 to 350 millimeters at Capesterre and la Soufrière (in vicinity of our volcano). Elsewhere, the rainfall reached 40 to 60 millimeters till 120 millimeters at les Grands-Fonds.
This rain event is expected to stay in our vicinity during the next 12H to 24H.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 30 2013
 
Significant Feature: A weak cold front over the Caribbean.

Morning: Parly cloudy.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


That is great news Gusty.

[Gustywind]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

LOCAL FORECAST

March 30 2013
 
Significant Feature: A weak cold front over the Caribbean.

Morning: Parly cloudy.

Afternoon: Windy with isolated showers mainly over northern parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds: Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 30C (86F)     Low: 24C (75F)
 


That is great news Gusty.

Thanks to you, yeah a very great at the right time!!! Hoping that our neighbours should have some too . Surprisingly, our forecasters of Meteo-France Guadeloupe said this morning: " Yesterday models dont't show this moist and unstable mass coming in our way". Anyway, we're enjoying it.

[Gustywind]

As things deteriorate quickly in some areas, Meteo-France Guadeloupe put us on Orange alert for a risk of strong showers and thunderstorms. They don't expected any significant improvement before tommorow.

So be aware all residents of Guadeloupe, we don't need any death at this period...

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
307 PM AST SAT MAR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX
FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL QUICKLY
BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA...
QUANTITIES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS FRIDAY AMOUNTS. SATELLITES IMAGES
ARE SHOWING THAT CWA IS IN BETWEEN TWO LARGE REGION OF MOISTURE.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ARE
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET OR MOVE AWAY AND AFFECT THE
MONA PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLIGHTLY SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THEREFORE
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO
RICO.

THE AREA OF MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTHWEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN GENERATE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLANDS.


&&

.AVIATION...XPCT VFR WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR IN SHRA...AT TAF SITES
THRU THE PD...ALTHO MOSTLY VCSH REPORTS AT TAF SITES INTO THIS AFT.
SAME TREND THIS EVE AND TONITE...PDS OF MVFR IN SHRA MOSTLY LIKELY
AT TISX/TJSJ/TIST/TNCM. LLVL WIND BLO FL050 MAINLY EAST...SOUTHEAST
15-20 KT WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
MAKING THE LOCAL WATERS EVEN MORE CHOPPY. ALSO A NORTHEAST SWELL
WILL CONTINUE AFFECT THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THIS EVENT WILL
PEAK TONIGHT AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 83 76 86 / 70 70 10 10
STT 75 84 75 86 / 50 60 20 20