Texas Spring 2013

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

p.s. love your Azalea bush!

[wxman57]

p.s. love your Azalea bush!

Sometimes our winter is more harsh than in my video. Highs only in the 30s or 40s (3-8C). Back in the 1980s, we had a period of 5 straight days with a high below freezing. Sort of like you saying you had 5 straight days in July with the temperature of 27C (80F) or above, when that's not an unusual morning low temp in summer for us.

You should move out of Canada and come down to the Gulf Coast and escape that nasty weather up there.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

p.s. love your Azalea bush!

Sometimes our winter is more harsh than in my video. Highs only in the 30s or 40s (3-8C). Back in the 1980s, we had a period of 5 straight days with a high below freezing. Sort of like you saying you had 5 straight days in July with temperature of 27C (80F) or above, when that's not an unusual morning low temp in summer for us.

You should move out of Canada and come down to the Gulf Coast and escape that nasty weather up there.

While I have the worst case of cabin fever I have ever had (2011 wasn't quite as bad) I still haven't lost my mind.




Thought I'd expand on my reply.....


While not me it easily could be now that the sun is giving us some warmth. The temps you posted would just be too hard for me to adjust to. My DNA antifreeze would never allow it.


Still searching the globe for those perfect temps...

[South Texas Storms]

Will April showers bring us May flowers this year? Find out in my latest weather article!
http://www.examiner.com/article/will-ap ... b_articles

[weatherdude1108]

Will April showers bring us May flowers this year? Find out in my latest weather article!
http://www.examiner.com/article/will-ap ... b_articles

Bring it!!

[Ntxw]

Short range guidance shows some thunderstorms rolling off the high plains through North Texas tonight. I'd love to sleep to some rumbles of thunder but I'm not certain if they will hang on without daylight heating. Fingers crossed!

[Ntxw]

Looks like the short range guidance did a good job. Storms are staying intact and rolling e/se, may provide a light show for some tonight.

[Rgv20]

It's been a year since that crazy Hail Storm that we had in the RGV!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bro/?n=2012even ... hailprelim

Historic Hail!
Mid Valley Blitzed by Hours of Hail, Wind, Flooding March 29th

Event
Intense thunderstorms raked the highly populated McAllen/Edinburg/Mission area of Hidalgo County during the mid evening of March 29th. The storms dumped hail up the size of baseballs for more than half an hour, drove that hail with 70 to 75 mph winds, added 4 to 6 inches of torrential rains, and produced frequent cloud to ground lightning. Initial storms developed across the King Ranch during the mid afternoon of March 29th, and spread west into northern Hidalgo and Starr County by early evening. The storms, fed by warm, humid air near the surface, colder air aloft, and boundaries (providing lift) from earlier storms which moved across the Coastal Bend, appeared to have intensified further as they approached the highly populated Edinburg/McAllen/Mission area. Why they intensified was a mystery, but one possibility was the interaction with an upper level disturbance moving across northeast Mexico. This disturbance spawned dangerous storms in Nuevo Léon and Tamaulipas, and boundaries from these cells may have been the ultimate trigger to a night hundreds of thousands will not forget.

Impact
The City of McAllen won’t soon forget the scary evening of March 29th. Preliminary storm reports received as the event was unfolding can be found here. The following is a sampling of the damage and devastation experienced by many, particularly in the north half of the city (map, below):

Wind and Hail. In a small portion of north McAllen (red square, below), up to an hour of continuous hail, driven by frequent winds estimated at 70 to 75 mph, knocked at least one window out of every north–facing home, defoliated nearly every tree, left up to a half foot of accumulated hail on the ground, and produced hail drifts up to 4 feet high. Numerous tree limbs were blown down, many homes had roof damage, and broken glass and water littered the north facing rooms and apartments. Hundreds of vehicles left outdoors were severely damaged by golf ball to baseball size hail dents, including many shattered windows.

At the McAllen/Miller Airport, a wind gust to hurricane force – 74 mph – was recorded, which came from the northwest. Surrounding the hardest hit areas, locations in central McAllen to the edge of Edinburg received less hail and wind, but still enough to strip many leaves from trees, knock down fences, dent vehicles, and damage some windows and roofs.

Additional wind damage reported South Pharr ripped a roof from a small house, and uprooted or snapped trees in the yard. This area was not investigated by the survey team; whether damage was caused by straight line wind or a small tornado will be determined.


Flooding and Rain. Torrential rain accompanied the hail; 4 to more than 6 inches fell in less than two hours, creating ice and water "rivers" with the height of the water as high as 4 to 6 feet in poor drainage locations. More than 100 vehicles were submerged and numerous others were abandoned during the peak of the storm. At one point, the city’s interconnected system of pipes, sewers, and drainage pools reached more than 90 percent of capacity. At one point, most of the city roads were under water. A preliminary rainfall map for the Rio Grande Valley can be found here.


Other. Frequent to excessive lightning was common with the long duration storm. At least two apartment fires were preliminarily attributed to lightning strikes. Many residents noted lightning streaking across the sky from north to south, indicative of impressive positive and negative charge distribution through the depth of the storm. Pockets of steam quickly formed as hail began to melt, and rose above eye level reducing visibility to near zero.


Assessment and Aftermath. For McAllen, the storm was epic. Given the magnitude, the community is fortunate to have escaped with no serious injuries and no fatalities as of this writing. Reasons may include time of day (mid to late evening), proactive services by the City’s Emergency Management apparatus, and good luck. In all, 217 persons were rescued from being trapped in hail and wind damaged homes and flood waters and more than 25,000 customers were without power during the peak of the storm. June Update: According to the Insurance Council of Texas, insured damages tallied $200 million; total damage, including uninsured property, is likely millions of dollars more. Thousands of auto and home insurance claims had been made by the 1st of April.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Happy Easter!

[wxman57]

It appears we'll have a few cold days mid week but hopefully with that east coast trof steadily weakening this may be the last low 40s we see this winter.

Went out for a ride yesterday. Took a picture about 16 miles NE of our house looking southwest toward downtown along the White Oak Bayou bike trail. Lots of bluebonnets.

[horselattitudesfarm]

"It appears we'll have a few cold days mid week but hopefully with that east coast trof steadily weakening this may be the last low 40s we see this winter.

Went out for a ride yesterday. Took a picture about 16 miles NE of our house looking southwest toward downtown along the White Oak Bayou bike trail. Lots of bluebonnets."

Nice to see wildflowers. Up here in Big D the cold has put the brakes on stuff growing. The 25 degrees here at our house put the kibosh on some of our flowers also.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Those Texas bluebonnets are very eye-catching!

Now I understand why you fellows were so quiet re this cold front. I thought it would just bring

[weatherdude1108]

Got 0.02-inch today. Hoping this forecast verifies and does not disappoint.

Austin metropolitan area:

Monday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Tuesday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 78. Southeast wind 5 to 15 mph.

Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 59. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 67. East northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday Night A chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 50. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

[Ntxw]

Models are really adamant about a steady on and off rain/thunderstorms as the low slowly moves over Texas. This should be a very good soaker for North/Central/SE Texas. Looks quite beneficial for The I-35 and I-45 corridors with 1-3 inches for a large portion of the state. Another deep slow moving system will effect Texas perhaps in another week after this first episode.

Snippet from FW this afternoon


THE PERIOD FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL VERY INTERESTING AS
AN UPPER TROUGH...NOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST...MOVES THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THEN ACROSS OKLAHOMA.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
SLIDE SOUTH AND SEND A ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. ALL OF
THIS HAPPENS AS A LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ON MONDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS ON TUESDAY
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
PATTERN SETUP IS USUALLY ONE THAT PROVIDES NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS WITH A SIGNIFICANT ISENTROPIC RAINFALL EVENT THAT CAN LAST
UP TO 48 HOURS.

[jasons2k]

I had a nice .51" here yesterday. That was a good primer for what is hopefully much more this week.

[vbhoutex]

I had a nice .51" here yesterday. That was a good primer for what is hopefully much more this week.

Is 0.04" considered a good primer for this week? I think a bird flew over and heard some thunder and...

[vbhoutex]

Today's email from Jeff:

After weeks of dry weather….the area has entered into an active state.

Thunderstorms yesterday afternoon affected areas mainly east of a line from College Station to Hempstead to Sugar Land to Galveston. Several reports of large hail were noted and good soaking rainfall.

I am hard pressed to call the boundary which moved through late yesterday helping to spark the storms a cool front, but will go with that for now as dewpoints have in fact fallen off some and drier air over N TX is shifting slowly southward. Short break in the active pattern today will be replaced with widespread thunderstorms on Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

Powerful upper level storm system offshore of CA this morning will begin to move inland over the next 12-24 hours and this will result in increasingly SW flow aloft over TX instead of NW which we had over the weekend. Low level moisture which has been scoured out of the region (but not far) by the Sunday storms is poised to make a strong return by this evening as pressures begin to lower out over W TX and winds turn more SE instead of NE and E. Should see low to mid 60 degree dewpoints return to the region this evening/overnight. Air mass will begin to destabilize Tuesday with heating and the approach of a low amplitude southern stream impulse in the sub-tropical jet. Brunt of lift with this disturbance should arrive after dark Tuesday and focus across the upper TX coastal waters into the coastal counties. Potential is for a coastal front to form up near/just offshore of the upper coast and act as a focus for thunderstorm development. While this is playing out the main storm system currently just off the W coast of the US will move into the four corners area and into W TX by early Wednesday. Strong and widespread upper level lift and splitting of the jet stream structures on the east side of this feature will promote vigorous thunderstorm development first over W and SW TX and then spreading eastward. Models are in decent agreement on a large scale MCS (meso convective system or thunderstorm complex) to form in the areas east of Big Bend to north of Del Rio and extending northward to near Midland. This complex will move ESE into the increasing low level jet overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. It is uncertain how fast this complex will move toward coastal TX, but the initial severe threat Tuesday afternoon over SW TX should weaken Tuesday night with the loss of heating. Still feel that with good low level inflow over S TX feeding the system, the complex will make it all the way toward the coast by Wednesday morning.

Meso scale influences from outflow boundaries over the next few days may help to override large scale synoptic features and result in varying placements of convective developments. Global forecast models have the correct pattern and need ingredients for some heavy rainfall, but the meso scale can greatly alter what the global models “think” will happen. One such possibility is how much storm development occurs near/off the upper TX coast Tuesday night and does this “rob” good low level moisture inflow into the SW TX MCS.

Rainfall amounts should average 1-2 inches across much of the state of TX which will be much needed rainfall. Could see some higher amounts especially near the coast where a period of cell training could be possible Tuesday night and then again Wednesday morning with the main line. PWS rise to near 1.5-1.7 inches which is high, but not historic for early April. Dry grounds should be able to handle much of what falls, but urban areas could see some ponding under the heavier rain cores.

Sunday Storm Reports:

Panorama Village, Montgomery: 1.25 inch hail at FM 830 and I-45

11 SE of Conroe, Montgomery: tree fell on to pickup truck on FM 1485 near Grapeland

Morgan’s Point, Harris: 40mph outflow winds along leading edge gust front

Manvel, Brazoria: Dime size hail reported in Manvel

Galveston, Galveston: PORTS data recorded a 41mph wind gust at the Galveston North Jetty along thunderstorm gust front.

Freer, Duval: 4.25 inch diameter hail (softball) caused extensive damage across the towns of Freer and Benavides. Nearly all windows broken out of homes and all vehicle windshields shattered

yesterday Reports Graphic

[vbhoutex]

It is 78f with a high of 83f so far in my area of Houston. Is Spring here? We can always hope, but progs are for our highs to be back down in the 60's Wednesday or Thursday with lows in the 40's or 50's. I'm just hoping we are really going to get the rains that are being predicted for those days. We still need it badly!!

[weatherdude1108]

Speaking of BADLY NEEDED rain, Bob Rose paints an optimistic picture, even for late next week. Are we going to have normal, regular, weekly storms for a change?

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html


"Today’s medium-range forecast data for next week calls for partly cloudy and warm weather next Monday through Wednesday with high temperatures in the low 80s. The weather pattern is then forecast to become more unsettled late next week into next weekend as another Pacific storm system tracks east out of the southwestern US. This system could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to Texas by next weekend. Stay tuned."

[vbhoutex]

Here is Jeff Lindner's take on the next 2 days:

Storm system approaching TX midday with increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms this evening into Wednesday.

While synoptic scale models are in decent agreement with parameters to produce a good bout of much needed rainfall across the region, the meso scale features may help another story play out. Large scale upper level system over the SW US and strong short wave rounding through the base of this feature should eject ENE into SW TX over the next few hours spreading stronger lift into much of TX. Should begin to see an increase in the shower and thunderstorm activity from the SW to the NE by early evening as lift from the short wave comes to bear across the region. Main question is where storms develop. Appears some sort of coastal boundary (maybe a warm front) extends across the NW Gulf and then inland near Galveston and WNW toward Wharton. South of this boundary dewpoints have warmed into the upper 60’s and low 70’s while north dewpoints are in the upper 50’s and low 60’s. Increasing large scale lift combined with breaks in the cloud cover SW of SE TX over the coastal bend into SC TX should result in the development of storms by late afternoon which will spread into the region during the evening hours. High resolution short term models have varying solutions on where and when storms will develop and how they will track across the region. Previous runs really favored the coastal sections, while more recent runs are favoring the developing from CLL to Lufkin and then sagging a line slowly SE into the region overnight.

In addition to local development this afternoon/evening, stronger forcing arrives across SW and WC TX tonight and this should help ignite a complex of thunderstorms from W of Austin into NE MX which will track ESE toward the area toward daybreak on Wednesday. I am a little nervous with so much activity forecasted over SE TX tonight that eh approaching line will have much “fuel” to work with by the time it arrives Wednesday. Much depends on how much thunderstorm activity develops this evening and how far south any outflow boundaries drive which could cut off the good supply of Gulf moisture into any approaching storm complex.

Still feel a solid 1-2 inches of rainfall is likely across the area with PWs increasing toward 1.5 inches. Could see some higher amounts where training cells develop or where any lines slow, especially tonight. With grounds parched from the recent dry weather, much of what falls should soak in although some minor urban flooding issues will be possible under the heaviest rain cores.