HURRICANELONNY wrote:I have to put my 2 cents in. As most of us know the pro's failed miserably in 2012. The factors change so fast it's hard to get a grip on what's happening in the tropics pertaining to Hurricane season. For sure and most models showed El Nino forming last year and it didn't. I don't know if El nino will form this year or if shear or SAL will have an influence. I guess any guess is good this early.
I would disagree with that assessment. True, there were more named storms than expected, but at least 3-4 of those were very short-lived out in the open Atlantic. In my outlook, I said that the MDR looked unfavorable for development in 2012, and that the eastern Caribbean would probably be spared any significant impact because of that. That prediction was quite good. Others predicted similarly unfavorable conditions in the MDR. I also discussed the analog years and stressed that in most of them a hurricane passed through the Florida Straits and struck the mid Gulf coast - something I said to watch out for in 2012. Isaac was a good verification of that. Now I certainly didn't expect 8 hurricanes to form in the subtropics, and one (Chris) north of 40N. I think that was the real surprise in 2012. Otherwise, the season behaved quite as expected.
There were only 2 major hurricanes in 2012, and both were just barely Cat 3s (just as predicted). I had predicted that the tropics would be generally unfavorable for strengthening due to increased low-level shear, dust, and a general lack of instability (at least in the deep tropics). I think that it was the general unfavorable conditions aloft that led to two large, disorganized hurricanes to impact the U.S. - Isaac and Sandy. Neither could get its act together before landfall, though Sandy started to organize before it hit Cuba.
I am super optimistic right?
