Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

Temperatures on March 31, 2013. The lows remained kind of cool but the highs were very hot:

Minimum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 20.0°C (68.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 12.1°C (53.8°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -2.0°C (28.4°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 19.3°C (66.7°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 19.2°C (66.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 9.0°C (48.2°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.9°C (71.4°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 18°C (64°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 11°C (52°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.6°C (63.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.6°C (42.1°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 20.8°C (69.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 25.3°C (77.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.4°C (63.3°F)

Maximum Temperatures

Belize city, Belize 29.0°C (84.2°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 28.0°C (82.4°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 24.0°C (75.2°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 34.6°C (94.3°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.8°C (92.8°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.4°C (75.9°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 39.4°C (102.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 29°C (84°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 38°C (100°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 35°C (95°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 28°C (82°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 28.6°C (83.5°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 12.0°C (53.6°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 35.2°C (95.4°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.9°C (78.6°F)

[Macrocane]

The temperatures on April 1, 2013. Even the lows were rather warm this time:

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 15.0°C (59.0°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala -0.7°C (30.7°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 22.0°C (72.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.1°C (68.2°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 10.4°C (50.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 21.0°C (69.8°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 16°C (61°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 10°C (50°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 27°C (81°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 26°C (79°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 20°C (68°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 18.1°C (64.6°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 5.1°C (41.2°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 24.2°C (75.6°F)
Panama city, Panama 24.7°C (76.5°F)
Boquete, Panama 17.0°C (62.6°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 32.0°C (89.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 31.0°C (87.8°F) HOTTEST SINCE APRIL 5, 2011
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 25.0°C (77.0°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 38°C (100.0°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 33.1°C (91.6°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 24.3°C (75.7°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 38.7°C (101.7°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 25°C (77°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 40°C (104°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 37°C (99°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 29°C (84°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 29.3°C (84.7°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 16.1°C (61.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 36.7°C (98.1°F)
Panama city, Panama 34.3°C (93.7°F)
Boquete, Panama 25.6°C (78.1°F)

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Only a few showers are expected in PR and adjacent islands for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
442 AM AST WED APR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EAST SOUTHEAST
LOWE LEVEL WIND ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE MIGRATES EASTWARD.
ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER TO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN
COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION UNTIL AT LEAST FRIDAY. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WELL NORTHEAST OF THE FA...IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...THE WIND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THIS WIND FLOW WILL TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF
MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THUS...EXPECT FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS WESTERN
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...DURG
AFTN...LOCAL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO ISOLD SHRA MAINLY
OVR NW PR FM 03/16Z-03/23Z. PREVAILING L/LVL E-SE WINDS BTW 10 TO 20
KTS WITH HIGHER SFC WIND GUSTS ALONG COASTAL AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT OPERATIONAL WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE RANGE OF 4 TO 6 FEET ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS OF 19 KNOTS OR
LESS ARE EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT ARE URGED TO EXERCISE CAUTION
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 76 85 76 / 0 20 20 30
STT 86 76 86 77 / 10 30 30 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 3 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Generally fair, except for isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
310 PM AST WED APR 3 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WX FEATURE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN ERODE AS SRN STREAM PERTURBATION
AMPLIFIES AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE ATLC.


&&

.DISCUSSION...SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THU
AND FRI AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD GREATLY INHIBITING
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. RIDGE SLIDES EAST SAT WITH A LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY PERTURBATION EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SAT AND
LINGER THRU SUN AND ACT TO ENHANCE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
AREA. MOISTURE THEN ERODES EARLY THROUGH MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS SRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE REGION AND AREA BECOMES
UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW LEADING TO
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AND POSSIBLE TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 03/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT IN WIND WAVES AS HIGH PRES NORTH OF
THE REGION MAINTAINS TIGHT PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 85 76 86 / 10 20 30 20
STT 76 86 77 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands during the next couple of days and going into the weekend but no big rain event is expected.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
547 AM AST THU APR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE AS THE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND ACROSS THE
LOCAL ISLANDS WHILE MIGRATES FURTHER EASTWARD. ANOTHER AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENTER TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING DEPICTED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WAS
OBSERVED OVER LAND AREAS. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE FA...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD TODAY...
MAINTAINING AN EAST SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT SMALL PATCHES OF MOISTURE
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THUS...EXPECT
FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS ACROSS
VIEQUES...CULEBRA AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THIS MORNING AND
ACROSS WESTERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PUERTO THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURGE OF MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL PERTURBATION EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...INDUCING AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...OVERALL VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE TAF PERIOD. FEW
PASSING TRADEWIND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND
MAY AFFECTS PARTS OF THE EAST INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR FM
04/09Z-04/12Z. THIS WILL RESULT IN BRIEF -SHRA AND MVFR CONDS IN
SCT-BKN CLD LYRS BTW FL020-FL050. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME MAINLY FROM
THE EAST AT 10-15 KTS TODAY. AFTN ISOLD-SCT SHRA FM 04/18Z-04/22Z
MAINLY OVR W INTERIOR SECTIONS OF PR BUT VFR CONDS AT ALL TAF SITES
DURG PRD.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE ORDER OF 3 TO 5 FEET ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS OF 18 KNOTS OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 85 76 / 20 20 20 10
STT 86 75 86 78 / 20 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 4 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge over northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Generally fair, except for isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Macrocane]

Good morning! The observations of the 3rd March cold surge are now in the Central American Cold Surges thread: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&start=100

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
340 PM AST THU APR 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU MONDAY THEN COLLAPSE AS
SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A PAIR OF LOW LEVEL EASTERLY PERTURBATIONS ONE
CROSSING THE LESSER ANTILLES AT THIS TIME AND ANOTHER FARTHER EAST
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THRU SAT AND BRING SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...SERN SECTIONS OF PR AND ST. CROIX
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRI THEN FOLLOWED BY A LULL FRI AFTERNOON AND
THEN ONE FINAL MOISTURE SURGE SAT. MOISTURE MAY LINGER AROUND THRU
SUN WITH SOME SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS WINDS RELAX A BIT.

NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW RIDGE COLLAPSING QUICKLY ON TUE AS CNTRL
ATLC TROUGH AMPLIFIES WITH EVENTUAL EVOLUTION INTO A DEEP H5
CUTOFF LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IT LOOKS LIKE AREA
WILL BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW LEADING TO
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. SO OVERALL MUCH DRIER WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY WITH THE ONLY SIG CHANGE BEING A COOL DOWN IN
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL ACROSS TJMZ AND TJBQ THROUGH AT LEAST 04/22Z.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT THRU FRI WITH 6FT
SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT MAINLY OVER CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT MAY BECOME NECESSARY MAINLY OVER CARIBBEAN SEA. SEAS
STAY AROUND 6 FT MOST OF THE FIVE DAY PERIOD DUE STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS AROUND 20 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 20 20 10 30
STT 76 85 76 86 / 20 20 40 40

[Macrocane]

Cold fronts are still reaching Central America, the next one arrives today:

DISCUSSION FROM APR 04/00UTC:POLAR TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL USA
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE CYCLE.
THROUGH 48-54 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO PULL ACROSS THE EASTERN USA
INTO CUBA-NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AS IT PUSHES EAST AND SOUTH...THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS AGAINST A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN/WESTERN ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH RIDGE INITIALLY YIELDS TO
AMPLIFYING TROUGH...BY 72-96 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO RAPIDLY LIFT
OVER THIS AXIS. AS A RESULT...BEST INFLOW OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS BY
42-54 HRS. AT LOW LEVELS THE TROUGH ALOFT SUSTAINS A POLAR
FRONT...WITH BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TO THE SOUTHERN
STATES OF MEXICO BY 24 HRS. THROUGH 36 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO
SOUTH FLORIDA...CROSSING WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
FRONTAL NORTHERLIES OF 20-25KT ARE TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AS IT
RACES ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BY 48
HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...TRAILING ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS/GUATEMALA. BY 60 HRS THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS-CENTRAL CUBA-CAYMAN ISLES TO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH FRONTAL NORTHERLIES WEAKENING TO
10-15KT. AT 72 HRS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS-EASTERN CUBA...WHILE TAIL END RETROGRESSES THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. BY 84 HRS IT IS TO MEANDER INTO THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...WHILE TRAILING END REMAINS OVER EASTERN CUBA-NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN. FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS TO
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY IN SQUALLY WEATHER. OVER WESTERN CUBA EXPECTING
ACCUMULATION OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES TO THE CENTRAL-SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS IT WILL SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM...WHILE ACROSS
CENTRAL TO EASTERN CUBA IT IS TO RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. OVER THE CAYMAN ISLES EXPECT
ACCUMULATION OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. THE FRONTAL
NORTHERLIES...AS THEY CONVERGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA ARE TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS PUERTO BARRIOS IN
CENTRAL GUATEMALA-NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY...FORECAST TO PEAK BETWEEN 48-66 HRS.

FURTHERMORE...AS THE FRONT SURGES ACROSS CUBA-WESTERN CARIBBEAN IT
IS TO FAVOR A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLES TO
NORTHEAST HONDURAS BY 48 HRS. THROUGH 60 HRS THE SHEAR LINE WILL
MOVE ACROSS JAMAICA TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. BY 72 HRS THIS IS TO
MEANDER ACROSS HAITI WHILE TRAILING TO SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. IT IS
TO THEN STALL WHILE GRADUALLY BECOMING ILL ORGANIZED. SHEAR LINE
CONFLUENCE ACROSS JAMAICA IS TO FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. OVER NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA IT WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE OVER SOUTHERN NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA
EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY.
ACROSS HAITI/DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS.

FURTHERMORE...AS A DEEP TROUGH ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC/WESTERN CARIBBEAN...THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
PANAMANIAN LOW/TROUGH...FAVORING THE NORTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF
THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE ISTHMUS INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE TROUGH IS TO REACH MAXIMUM
AMPLITUDE BY 42/48 HRS...IT IS TO THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS POLAR
TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS...IN-TURN...IS
TO ENHANCE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO
PANAMA-COSTA RICA. ACROSS PANAMA-COSTA RICA INITIALLY EXPECT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. THIS
DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY 48-84 HRS.
ACROSS WESTERN-NORTHERN COLOMBIA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM/DAY. AS THE TROUGH
DEEPENS/BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED EXPECTING CONVECTION TO BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM/DAY. OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MARACAIBO
REGION IN NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WHERE WE INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. BY 48-60 HRS
THEN EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM/DAY.

AS PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES FLOW
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN-GREATER ANTILLES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AS POLAR TROUGH PRESSES AGAINST THIS AXIS...RIDGE TENDS TO WEAKEN
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY 48 HRS...BUT IT QUICKLY BOUNCES BACK
BY 72-96 HRS. OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN RIDGE PATTERN
WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE RESILIENT...AND TENDS TO HOLD UNTIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST CYCLE. AS A RESULT...THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN TENDS TO REMAIN ON THE CONVERGENT/SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THIS
RIDGE...SUSTAINING A CAP INVERSION AROUND 750-700 HPA. AT LOW
LEVELS...BROAD RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF
20N. SOME EROSION OF THIS RIDGE IS ALSO FORECAST AS POLAR TROUGH
MOVES TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY 48-60 HRS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART
IT WILL TEND TO HOLD TO THE EAST OF 65W/70W. ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES THIS FAVORS A BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW. EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE OF
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLY TRADES...WITH ONE ENTERING THE
FRENCH/WINDWARD ISLANDS AS ANOTHER CLOSELY FOLLOWS TO THE EAST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT WITH THESE PERTURBATIONS PEAK AT
30-35MM. THE FIRST WAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY IN
THE CYCLE AND ACROSS SAINT CROIX/CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO
BY 30-36 HRS. AT 42/48 HRS IT THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. THE OTHER ENTERS THE FRENCH/LEEWARD ISLES BY 36
HRS...INTO THE VIRGIN ISLES BY 48 HRS. IT THEN TRACKS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY 72 HRS. AS THE
PERTURBATIONS ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...THE TRADE
WINDS CAP IS TO LIFT TO 700-600 HPA. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FIRST
WAVE EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH WIDELY
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE SECOND WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE
ACTIVE...FAVORING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. MOST ACTIVE/INTENSE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AS IT PHASES WITH FRONTAL SHEAR LINE ENTERING THE ISLAND
ON DAY 03...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.

OVER THE ATLANTIC...A TROUGH IS TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE EASTERN
FRINGES OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. BY 24 HRS THE TROUGH IS TO EXTEND
SOUTH ALONG 50W TO THE AMAZON RIVER DELTA REGION. BROAD TROUGH IS
TO THEN HOLD AS IT SLOWLY PULLS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH
IS TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC ITCZ...TO FAVOR A SURGE IN
ACTIVITY ACROSS AMAPA IN NORTHERN BRASIL TO EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
IN THIS AREA INITIALLY EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY. AS THE ITCZ PATTERN INTENSIFIES THIS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. OVER
GUYANA-SURINAME...SEA BREEZE/COASTAL CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY IN WIDELY ISOLATED CONVECTION.

[cycloneye]

Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today as an easterly perturbation moves thru (Tropical Wave?)


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
516 AM AST FRI APR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS TODAY WILL SHIFT WEST AND WEAKEN. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL BUILD JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A JET FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST SHIFTS SOUTH OVER THE AREA BY MID WEEK. ANOTHER RIDGE
RETURNS BY SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
UNTIL A BROAD TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MID WEEK.
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL CREATE A
NARROW EAST WEST TROUGH THAT WILL SAG SOUTH OVER THE ISLAND
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER FOR THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ALONG A FRONT ARE MOVING
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AGAIN ON MONDAY AND
JOINS HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA TO BECOME A STRONGER HIGH THAT
DOMINATES MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS PASSED OVER THE SAN JUAN METRO AREA
LEAVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. SHOWERS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN THE CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
THE DISTURBANCE THAT RESEMBLES AN EASTERLY WAVE IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 9 MPH AND SHOULD ARRIVE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ISLAND BY 10 AM AST. MODELS INDICATE THAT A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN IN THE AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN PUERTO RICO
AND IN THE EVENING FOR WESTERN PUERTO RICO. DRY MID LAYERS MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LIMITED VERTICAL GROWTH
POSSIBLE. A SECOND DISTURBANCE CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND BANDS OF MOISTURE FOLLOW TO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH
PASSAGE MAY BRING DRIER WEATHER IN THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. THE GFS
SHOWS MID LEVEL DRYING DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO LESS THAN 5 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY BEGINNING
FRIDAY AFTER NEXT AND EXTENDING DOWN TO JUST ABOVE THE 850 MB
LEVEL BY SATURDAY APRIL 13.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS CONTINUES TO BRING SHRA ACROSS THE USVI AND PR
TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO ABOUT 4 MILES AND CIGS AT AROUND 4000-5000 FT AS WELL AS
CAUSING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AT AROUND
10-15KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE
WINDS...WITH AN EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST COMPONENT THROUGHOUT THE
NEXT 10 DAYS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 6 FEET IN MOST EXPOSED WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 77 87 76 / 30 30 30 30
STT 85 76 86 78 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
321 PM AST FRI APR 5 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
COLLAPSE AS TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC. HIGH PRES
ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS A CDFNT MOVES
INTO THE SW ATLC. A NEW AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH
OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE MAXIMUM ASSOCIATED WITH FIRST WAVE IN THE
EASTERLIES WILL EXIT THE AREA BY SUNSET WITH A LULL EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF NEXT WAVE NOW OVR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SECOND
WAVE WILL REACH THE AREA BY 12Z SAT ENHACING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVR THE AREA. MOISTURE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL LINGER AROUND THRU SUN
WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND SCT SHOWERS. EVEN IF IF DOESN`T RAIN IT
LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL BE EXTENSIVE THRU THE WEEKEND. SIG IMPROVEMENT
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MON.

MID NEXT WEEK...AS CNTRL ATLC TROF AMPLIFIES LOCAL AREA WILL
BECOME UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW LEADING TO STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. IN ADDITION...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC TIGHTENING THE LOCAL PRES GRADIENT AND
STRENGTHENING THE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS
MOST TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 05/22Z. INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
SHOWERS WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER TNCM AND
TKPK FROM THROUGH 06/12Z. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY OVR THE WEEKEND AS PRES
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT. WINDS STRENGTHEN
AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE WRN ATLC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 86 75 86 / 30 30 20 40
STT 75 85 75 87 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. Variable weather between sun and some scattered showers will be the rule this weekend for PR and adjacent islands.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 AM AST SAT APR 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE EAST AS
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS STRENGTHEN A BROADER TROUGH OVER PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. ALSO A JET
STREAM WILL MOVE INTO PLACE OVER THE AREA AND WINDS INCREASE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE RIDGE RETURNS BY THE FOLLOWING SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
UNTIL MID-WEEK. A TROUGH FORMS NORTH OF THE AREA AND SHIFTS
ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK. A
REX BLOCK FORMS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. CONDITIONS AT MID LEVELS
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORMS AT MID
LATITUDES IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...IT MOVES
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND IS NOT ABLE TO DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE AREA AND THE PREVAILING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THIS
PATTERN BRINGS POORLY ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST
FLOW TO NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AND
SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ON THE WINDWARD SIDE...THEN FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST UNTIL THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...AGAIN WITH PATCHY
MOISTURE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVED IN THE SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
AROUND 16 KNOTS WITH A FEW MOVING ONSHORE ONTO PUERTO RICO
OVERNIGHT. FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.
BECAUSE MOISTURE IS MOSTLY LACKING AT LEVELS OVER 7 KFT...SHOWERS
ARE FORMING BUT ARE UNABLE TO ORGANIZE OR DEVELOP STRONGLY...
LIMITING RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE IS TO DEEPEN
RAPIDLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY ON THE FRONT
THAT MOVED OUT OF THE UNITED STATES AND IT WILL ENHANCE THAT FRONT
SOUTH OF THE LOW. NEVERTHELESS THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF 20 DEGREES NORTH AND THUS WE REMAIN IN A
SHALLOW LAYER OF TROPICAL AIR...OVERLAID BY A RATHER DRY MID
LAYER INDUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH MODEST ACCUMULATIONS MOST OF
NEXT WEEK. A DRYING TREND IS SEEN FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND...BUT
IS NOT AS STRONG AS SEEN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS SO MAY NOT BE
ABLE TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE SHOWERS THEN.

SOUTHEAST FLOW DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL ON THE NORTH
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE
DUE TO PASSING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE USVI/BVI AND TJMZ
AND POSSIBLY TJSJ. WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST
AT 10-15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS WILL CONTINUE 3 TO 5 FEET IN MOST WATERS AND
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS
MOST OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
BY MID WEEK


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 76 87 76 / 30 20 30 20
STT 85 76 86 77 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 6 2013
 

Significant Feature: A cold front over the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Partly cloudy especially over northern parishes.

Afternoon:  Becoming cloudy with occasional showers over most areas.

Tonight: Cloudy, cool and windy with isolated showers.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 29C (84F)     Low: 23C (73F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
303 PM AST SAT APR 6 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU MON THE COLLAPSE AS
SRN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND EVOLVES INTO A DEEP CUTOFF LOW NE
OF THE REGION. STRONG HIGH PRES EXITING THE MID ATLC STATES WILL
BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION MON STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FAILED TO REACH THE AREA TODAY AS
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WERE
STRONGER THAN FCST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN TONIGHT BUT IT
APPEARS THAT SIG MOISTURE WILL NOT REACH THE AREA UNTIL MON WHEN
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING TROUGH ACROSS THE
ATLC. HOWEVER...THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS WILL LIMIT SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE BUT EXPECT WILL SEE BETTER SHOWER CVRG MON AND
TUE. MODELS THEN SHOW JET STREAK SHIFTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA WED WITH UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT
LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING THRU THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES PEAKED AT 91F AT SJU TODAY BUT EXPECT A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN SUN AND MON WITH A MORE SIG COOL DOWN TUE THRU FRI OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH AT LEAST 07/12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THRU SUN THEN STRENGTHEN
AGAIN MON AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION. EXPECT
AT LEAST 6 FT SEAS MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH A STIFF 20KT WIND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 88 75 86 / 20 20 20 20
STT 78 84 78 87 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands for the next few days.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
456 AM AST SUN APR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH AND
JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY FOLLOWED BY INCREASING
FLOW FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST. A TROUGH WILL SHARPEN OVER THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WEST AS
A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF EAST
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO FORM A REX BLOCK. THIS BLOCK
MOVES EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE RETAKES THE CARIBBEAN. SOME MOISTURE
IS PRESENT TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OTHERWISE MID LEVELS ARE VERY DRY.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH
OF 20 NORTH WHILE PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN
GENERALLY EASTERLY FLOW. A SECOND FRONT THAT CROSSES THROUGH CUBA
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE SIMILAR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER ACTIVITY INCREASED SLOWLY OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. A FEW SHOWERS MOVED JUST ONSHORE EARLY
IN THE MORNING OVER LAJAS...AND MORE SHOWERS ARE JUST OFFSHORE
FROM MAUNABO AND YABUCOA THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND BEFORE
DAWN. THEN SHOWER ACTIVITY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WILL MOVE IN
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS PUERTO RICO. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. A COLD
FRONT ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN CUBA IS
EXPECTED TO LAY OVER AND SAG AS FAR SOUTH AS 20 NORTH BY MID WEEK.
PUERTO RICO WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING MUCH OF THE
WEEK...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED BY THE DEPTH OF THE MOIST LAYER
WHICH GENERALLY ENDS ABOVE 10 KFT AND WEAKENS ABOVE 6 KFT KEEPING
CONVECTION MODEST AND DISORGANIZED.

EAST SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTH
COAST OF PUERTO RICO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND MONDAY...BUT GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEARLY NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE
TO PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND USVI/BVI AND POSSIBLY TJPS AND
TJSJ IN THE MORNING. AFTER 07/13Z...E-SE WINDS WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS
AT 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AFTERNOON SHRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NW QUADRANT OF PR...AFFECTING TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ.
TEMPO/PROB30 GROUP KEPT OUT OF TAF FOR TJBQ DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF
IMPACT...HOWEVER SCT SHRA ARE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE ON MONDAY AND SMALL CRAFT WILL NEED
TO EXERCISE CAUTION IN MANY WATERS DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS...BUT AT
THIS TIME HAVE HELD OFF ON SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DUE TO THE 1
FOOT MODEL BIAS IN SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 89 76 / 20 20 20 30
STT 85 76 86 78 / 30 30 20 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
302 PM AST SUN APR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL HOLD THRU MON THEN COLLAPSE TUE
AS TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CNTRL ATLC AND EVOLVES INTO A CUTOFF
LOW NE OF THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT LEADING TO SCT
SHOWERS ACROSS ERN PR AND THE USVI. DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED NOW FOR
MON AFTERNOON AND TUE. AS TROF AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE REGION TUE IT
APPEARS NOW THAT BEST SHOWER CVRG WILL OCCUR ON WED BUT AFTER
THAT TROF AXIS SHIFTS EWD AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK SWD WITH AREA
BECOMING UNDER INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT FLOW LEADING TO
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING. OVERALL...IT APPEARS THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL
FEATURE WELL BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE
TO PASSING SHRA...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE NW QUADRANT OF
PR...AFFECTING TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ THROUGH AT LEAST 07/22Z. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THRU MID WEEK THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE
CNTRL ATLC. PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOT
EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHOPPY SEAS WITH
6FT SEAS AND SCEC STATEMENTS THRU THE 5-DAY PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 76 89 76 85 / 20 20 20 20
STT 77 86 77 86 / 50 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 8 2013
 

Significant Feature: A frontal trough over the central Caribbean.

Morning:  Mainly fair.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Good morning. Scattered showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands in the next couple of days.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
505 AM AST MON APR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A SERIES OF VERY WEAK SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY A CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO FORM ABOUT 925 MILES
NORTH OF SAINT THOMAS AND A 70 KNOT JET WILL BE INDUCED OVER THE
LOCAL AREA CAUSING FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE RESULTANT TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AS A RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

AT MID LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL SHIFT
WEST INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE LOW OF A REX BLOCK FORMS
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO THURSDAY. THE REX BLOCK WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY...BUT A TROUGH WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. MID LEVELS GAIN SOME MOISTURE MID WEEK
BUT DRY OUT AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

AT LOWER LEVELS...MODEST HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXPAND IN SCOPE WHILE MOVING SLOWLY INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW BEARING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DURING THE WETTEST PERIOD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO ARE LIKELY AND MAY CONTAIN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DUE
TO ENHANCED DYNAMICS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL JET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SMALL SHOWERS BEARING MODERATE RAIN WERE MOVING
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WATERS AT BETWEEN 16-18 KNOTS.
SOME WERE MOVING INTO PUERTO RICO AS DEEPLY AS CAYEY. THESE SHOWER
ARE EMBEDDED IN A BAND OF AIR WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS
HIGH AS 1.4- 1.6 INCHES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SLOT OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR BEFORE BETTER MOISTURE MOVES IN TO THE AREA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SATELLITE AND MIMIC IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT
BOTH THE LOW AND HIGH MOISTURE VALUES FORECAST BY THE 08/00Z MODEL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND WRF OF 1.02 AND 1.68 INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON RESPECTIVELY MAY BE EXAGGERATED. BUT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS MAY UNDER PERFORM HOWEVER...SINCE
MOISTURE LEVELS ARE QUITE LIMITED IN MID LEVELS DESPITE THE
ABSENCE OF STRONG CAPPING. A 70 KNOT JET WILL PROVIDE SOME
VENTILATION BUT ITS NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND THE LOWER MOISTURE
VALUES AROUND THE 400 TO 600 MB LAYER WILL WORK AGAINST STRONG
CONVECTION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING SHOWERS ON THE
WINDWARD NORTHEAST COAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE DRIER WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT AND RIDGING AT UPPER LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR PERIODS POSSIBLE DUE TO
PASSING SHRA ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE MORNING...AFTERNOON SHRA
FORECAST FOR TJBQ AND POSSIBLY TJMZ THROUGH 08/22Z. EASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS EXPECTED AT AROUND 10 TO 15
KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS AGITATED WITH MOST EXPOSED WATERS SEEING 5 TO
6 FOOT SEAS WITH PERIODS OF AROUND 8 TO 9 SECONDS. MODELS SUGGEST
SOME 7 FOOT SEAS BUT HAVE BEEN RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT TOO HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 86 75 / 20 40 40 40
STT 86 76 86 76 / 50 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
408 PM AST MON APR 8 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC WILL DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITHOUT AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT..SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL BUILD AND EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...PRODUCING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MIDWEEK AS A UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUSTAINING AN AREA OF MOISTURE
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE USVI OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD OVER PUERTO RICO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL SUSTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ISLANDS LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. FOR MIDWEEK...A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...INDUCING AN UPPER
TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PULLS EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...A 70 KT JET WILL MOVE OVER
PR/USVI BY THURSDAY MORNING. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE
AND POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE INFLOW OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOCAL ISLANDS...EXCEPT ACROSS WESTERN
PR WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BRING HIGHER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
OVERALL...EXPECT MAINLY SHALLOW CONVECTION AFFECTING THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS AT NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY MODERATE CONVECTION OVER WESTERN PR.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW SHRA OVER WESTERN PR WILL DISSIPATE NEAR 08/21Z...
LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THIS EVENING. AN AREA OF MOISTURE
WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BTWN 09/06-18Z...INCREASING THE CLOUDS
AND SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS CONTINUE MODERATE TO FRESH IN RESPONSE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP SEAS BETWEEN 5 TO 6 FOOT SEAS AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS.
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 86 75 86 / 30 40 40 40
STT 76 86 76 85 / 30 20 20 20