2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[Riptide]

Global SST's are almost as high as they were in the summer of 2012.

[cycloneye]

Wow,the Tropical Atlantic has really warmed up in a steady way (+1.036C) and here is the latest data as of March 27.

[Hurricaneman]

Atlantic instability March 30 2013

GOM: Average -7 Current -5 which is 2 above normal instability

Caribbean: Average 1 Current 0 which is 1 below normal instability

East Coast: Average -10 Current -10 which is normal instability

Tropical Atlantic: Average -6 Current -10 which is 4 below normal instability

SubTrop Atlantic: Average -10 Current -11 which is 1 below normal instability

the accumulitive atlantic instability is 4 below normal with the tropical atlantic being the most below normal

[cycloneye]

After being negative,the NAO has turned positive for now and that has caused the Tropical Atlantic to decrease the temperatures. Let's see how this factor behaves when it counts,after June 1rst.







http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/

[cycloneye]

The vertical instability remains below normal in the Tropical Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

Atlantic Instability April 3 2013

GOM: Average -7 Current -7 which is normal instability

Caribbean: Average 1 Current 1 which is normal instability

East Coast: Average -10 Current -11 which is 1 below normal instability

Tropical Atlantic: Average -5 Current -9 which is 4 below normal instability

SubTrop Atlantic: Average -9 Current -10 which is 1 below normal instability

The accumulitive Atlantic instability is 6 below normal and most of that is in the MDR. If that doesn't go up by summer I may lower my numbers by my may update due to maybe less storms in the MDR

[Hurricaneman]

Heres a map graphic of atlantic instability

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... xyains.gif

the instability in the atlantic is a little below normal, but notice that area near from 40W to 55W between 10N and 20N is a little above normal. It seems looking at that may be a change towards above normal conditions

[cycloneye]

This may cause panic to some of the peeps but when they see this comparison between 2005 and 2013 at the 500mb level anyone would go like this. Let's see how the pattern continues to evolve as the hurricane season gets closer and after it starts.

[Blinhart]

This may cause panic to some of the peeps but when they see this comparison between 2005 and 2013 at the 500mb level anyone would go like this. Let's see how the pattern continues to evolve as the hurricane season gets closer and after it starts.

http://i.imgur.com/HfoiD70.gif

If I understand that graph correctly, we are actually in a worse position than in 2005, which could lead to some major storms that would have no other choice than to head West either into Central America or the Northern part of the GOM and all points in between those two. So the people from Panama all the way to the Florida Panhandle need to be ready for anything. I just don't have a good feeling about this hurricane season.

[WeatherEmperor]

Luis,

Im sorry for the dumb question
What does that big purple area mean? Does it mean a big blocking ridge of high pressure which would send cape verde storms west into the us east coast or is it something different?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[NDG]

The deep blue/purple shaded areas is actual lower than average heights at H50 (mid levels) indicative of a -NAO which keeps the Atlantic ridge weak, if that pattern was to be in place in the heart of the hurricane season tropical systems would be recurving out to sea but that was the pattern during March the month that the map shows which was similar to the pattern in March of '05 which is comparing it to.

[cycloneye]

Luis,

Im sorry for the dumb question
What does that big purple area mean? Does it mean a big blocking ridge of high pressure which would send cape verde storms west into the us east coast or is it something different?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

Our friend NDG said it all very well. Let's see how this continues in the next few months.

[Hurricaneman]

Atlantic instability April 8 2013

GOM: Average -7 Current -8 which is 1 below normal instability

Caribbean: Average 1 Current -3 which is 4 beow normal instability

East Coast: Average -10 Current -14 which is 4 below normal instability

Tropical Atlantic: Average -5 Current -7 which is 2 below normal instability

SubTrop Atlantic: Average -9 Current -14 which is 5 below normal instability

Accumulitive Atlantic instability is 16 below normal

[cycloneye]

I was looking for a thread to post this Ocean Briefing by CPC about how things are evolving in the different basins especially in the North Atlantic. All is teleconnected between the different oceans so I decided to post it here. There are a few sections in the briefing that are important to follow such as the SST anomalies in Tropical Atlantic,NAO,how the PDO is doing and how it affects what ENSO does.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/G ... urrent.pdf

[WeatherEmperor]

Atlantic instability April 8 2013

GOM: Average -7 Current -8 which is 1 below normal instability

Caribbean: Average 1 Current -3 which is 4 beow normal instability

East Coast: Average -10 Current -14 which is 4 below normal instability

Tropical Atlantic: Average -5 Current -7 which is 2 below normal instability

SubTrop Atlantic: Average -9 Current -14 which is 5 below normal instability

Accumulitive Atlantic instability is 16 below normal

I really would like to see vertical instability numbers for march/april 2005 for example. Do you have any of that data?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Hurricaneman]

Atlantic instability April 8 2013

GOM: Average -7 Current -8 which is 1 below normal instability

Caribbean: Average 1 Current -3 which is 4 beow normal instability

East Coast: Average -10 Current -14 which is 4 below normal instability

Tropical Atlantic: Average -5 Current -7 which is 2 below normal instability

SubTrop Atlantic: Average -9 Current -14 which is 5 below normal instability

Accumulitive Atlantic instability is 16 below normal

I really would like to see vertical instability numbers for march/april 2005 for example. Do you have any of that data?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

No, but i'm sure a member or meteorologist does

[Siker]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... index.html

Edit: Woops, should have said here are all of the vertical instability charts for 2005.

[cycloneye]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/projects/gparm/data/archived/2005/index.html

First, welcome to Storm2k. Second,thank you for posting the 2005 Vertical Instability charts that was asked earlier by WeatherEmperor.

[wxman57]

Note that the basin grid areas for the instability graphics changed for 2013. Therefore, the "climo" line is now quite different from before, and the current instability calculation takes into consideration a different area. Makes it hard to compare this year to past years.

[WeatherEmperor]

Okay. Thank you for the information. I know it is too early to know at this point, but what do you guys expect will happen with the vertical instability as we approach the heart of the hurricane season...given the current state? Sorry for so many questions but this is one aspect of hurricane forecasting that I never studied before

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE