2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[vbhoutex]

Not sure I want another summer death ridge over Texas this year.... like to see a TS make its way over here. I need a new roof! If you know what I mean

I don't know. If storms get into the GOM this year, I'm worried they'll be far from tropical storms.

I hear you RL3AO. The different forecasters I have talked with are ALL concerned about the GOM this year. Conditions appear to be favorable for anything that gets into the Caribbean(next stop GOM)to develop into a TC, if it isn't one already, unlike last year, which would mean that unless conditions in the GOM are hostile we would have the possibility of some major Hurricanes in the GOM. Unfortunately, once in the GOM TCs have to landfall somewhere. Like Rock I would not be averse to some weak tropical systems coming into our area and bringing us the rain we still need.

[South Texas Storms]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHhA3tACMAA4aZR.png:large

Where did you get the UKMET long range precipitation maps Luis?

[cycloneye]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHhA3tACMAA4aZR.png:large

Where did you get the UKMET long range precipitation maps Luis?

I got it from another site that was posted without a link. I will try to find the source to then post it.

[USTropics]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHhA3tACMAA4aZR.png:large

Where did you get the UKMET long range precipitation maps Luis?

You can find the source files here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

[cycloneye]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHhA3tACMAA4aZR.png:large

Where did you get the UKMET long range precipitation maps Luis?

You can find the source files here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Thank you for posting the link.

[cycloneye]

Here is a two month loop of how things have evolved in the Pacific and the Atlantic

[cycloneye]

This is the 500mb forecast by UKMET for July/August/September.

[South Texas Storms]

This is the UKMET forecast of precipitation for July/August and September. Look how enhanced is the moisture in the MDR area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BHhA3tACMAA4aZR.png:large

Where did you get the UKMET long range precipitation maps Luis?

You can find the source files here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/ens-mean

Yeah thanks for posting the link.

[cycloneye]

The JMA model for precipitation imitates the UKMET as it has plenty in the MDR and Caribbean. This is for June,July and August.



https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 60/photo/1

[Hurricaneman]

This past week there has been an area of low pressure over Algeria and Libya dropping decent amounts of rain, could that possibly cause SAL outbreaks to be less extreme

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[cycloneye]

The latest Vertical Instability in Caribbean is slightly above normal and at MDR is slightly below average.

[artist]

could anyone help explain to us less knowledgeable what these mean?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

could anyone help explain to us less knowledgeable what these mean?

Could you be more specific on what you're confused about?

[artist]

could anyone help explain to us less knowledgeable what these mean?

Could you be more specific on what you're confused about?

what are the patterns indicating as to where storms may or may not form, etc. and how to interpret them?

[cycloneye]

could anyone help explain to us less knowledgeable what these mean?

Maybe this video by Levi Cowan helps you a little bit to understand how the patterns are evolving.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/201 ... e-season//

[cycloneye]

Here is a discussion by Levi Cowan about the MSLP forecast by CFS and how it differs from the ECMWF April one.

CFS MSLP forecast for May - July has lower pressures SE of the US but also in the Arctic. Such a pattern can become dangerous for US and Caribbean landfalls if it lasts into August/September, because low pressure in tropics + arctic means a ridge in between that is far enough south to block or delay the recurvature of storms leading to more landfalls. Also worth noting is the CFS MSLP forecast in the tropical Atlantic is opposite to the current ECMWF forecast as brought out by others

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

[Hurricaneman]

Luis, It looks like something similar to a 2004 pattern on the CFS where the recurve didn't happen until stuff went through Florida which is making me take notice. I'm more likely to take the CFS forecast seriously than the Euro especially if the pressure pattern remains

[artist]

Here is a discussion by Levi Cowan about the MSLP forecast by CFS and how it differs from the ECMWF April one.

CFS MSLP forecast for May - July has lower pressures SE of the US but also in the Arctic. Such a pattern can become dangerous for US and Caribbean landfalls if it lasts into August/September, because low pressure in tropics + arctic means a ridge in between that is far enough south to block or delay the recurvature of storms leading to more landfalls. Also worth noting is the CFS MSLP forecast in the tropical Atlantic is opposite to the current ECMWF forecast as brought out by others

https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits

exactly what I was hoping for. Thank you!

[cycloneye]

Even thou the Eurosip April update out on the 22nd of April (Posted at ENSO Updates thread) shows a wide scope between El Nino and La Nina for the next few months,the ensemble tercile also out today has normal to below normal pressures for the June,July,August and for July,August,September. That is contrary to what the ECMWF operational had in it's April forecast of higher pressures.

[chaser1]

Luis, It looks like something similar to a 2004 pattern on the CFS where the recurve didn't happen until stuff went through Florida which is making me take notice. I'm more likely to take the CFS forecast seriously than the Euro especially if the pressure pattern remains

We had two land-falling tropical cyclones impact my area just last season, with Beryl striking my area directly. Fortunately they did not become hurricanes, but it was bad enough. I have a bad vibe that the peninsula is going to get impacted heavily this upcoming tropical season. I really hope I am wrong about this.

I'm right there with you guys..... I'm all the way down the peninsula from you (Miami area) and totally share the same sense of foreboding as you do. I have concerns for the Florida East coast from Jensen Beach to points north. Also really concerned about the Sarasota to Ceder Key area. Other than my own pre-season guess that there might be a few low latitude Caribbean systems that will keep on buzzing westward, am also concerned that the Carolina's will be a target as well by other higher latitude re-curving systems approaching from E. of Florida

I am always curious to see the origin and track of the first (tropical or non tropical) depression or two. I have most always found some semblance of recurring later year tropical cyclone track that would seem to fit these early season formative weak systems.

Another curious tendency which I have noticed over the years, is a type of pattern theory which an old chaser friend of mine shared with me years ago. Over many years of seasonal track observations it would seem that the Atlantic basin would tend to have 2 predominant areas (and motion) of tropical system tracks. Almost as if the overall steering flow for any particular season had 2 generally dominant track signatures. 'Course, its still too early to have any handle on that quite yet, but each year around this time I start looking for clues.

Come April I start looking at any mid to upper level conditions as hints. Then I start paying a bit more attention at the long range just to see what level of continuity or shifts that the GFS & EURO might indicate. The accuracy of the long range forecast at this point really is less relevant to me than seeing "downstream" what actually verified (in comparison to what was forecasted 7-10 days prior). What i'm especially curious about are those tendencies possibly indicating either greater or lessor strengths (and direction) of steering and upper level wind flow. Naturally, long wave patterns and conditions evolve from Spring to Summer, but redundant patterns over time are certainly not uncommon. So basically there are present conditions (showing near normal, or higher or lower anomalies), forecasted conditions (showing the same) and of course the longer range as well. I'm mostly interested in seeing if some consistency of tendencies (such as SST's, MSLP, TUTT conditions, 200mb wind strength/direction, 500mb flow, general instability, etc) not only show "at", "above", or "below" seasonal norm for the time of year....but if such conditions continue to be under or over forecasted by the respective long range models.

Anyway, just my weird way of simply taking "consistency" and trying to project longer range based on a continued measure of under-forecast or over-forecast long range model accuracy. I call it my own "Persistance on Crack" theory, LOL!