Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
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CrazyC83
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Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF KY/TN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOWER-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH BASE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL REACH THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO
MOVING INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE UPPER-AIR DEVELOPMENTS...A LEE CYCLONE OVER
N-CNTRL NM WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTO NWRN TX BY 18/00Z BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY BY 18/12Z. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO THIS MIGRATORY
CYCLONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS AS
A WARM FRONT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STRETCH FROM CNTRL
THROUGH SWRN OK INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL BY THE 17/21-18/00Z TIME
FRAME. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN TX TODAY...LIKELY
REACHING NWRN TX INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY BY PEAK HEATING. BY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE SEWD
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF OK/TX AS A COLD FRONT.
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED A POTENT COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G PER
KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES WERE
APPROACHING 8.5-9.0 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE
PARAMETERS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY
STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPARENT WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER
ERN KS INTO MO. HERE...A RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES
/SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 114 FOR DETAILS.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX...STRONGER
CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DELAY STORM INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT TRIPLE POINT. DESPITE AN INITIAL
WEAKNESS IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS IN THE 2.5-4 KM AGL LAYER...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND
LONG-TRACKED/. AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF OK WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL
GROW INCREASINGLY LARGE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE
SURGING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...SRN IA/NRN MO/IL INTO TONIGHT...
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT
THE TERMINUS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL IA /PER RADAR DATA/. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
CONTINUE EWD TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
...PARTS OF KY/TN THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE STORM REGENERATION OCCURRING FROM CNTRL
KY INTO NERN TN...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A RESIDUAL COLD POOL
ATTENDANT TO A NOCTURNAL MCS. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z NASHVILLE
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND
2500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
DEVELOPS A SWWD/SWD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 04/17/2013
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1638Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM
NWRN TX THROUGH CNTRL OK INTO SERN KS AND FAR SWRN MO...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTO TONIGHT FROM PORTIONS OF
THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PARTS OF KY/TN...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVELY TILTED LONG-WAVE TROUGH FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES TO LOWER CO VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO THE PROGRESSION OF A SERIES OF LOWER-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS
THROUGH THE NERN PACIFIC. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE PATTERN...A
MIDLEVEL JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED VORTICITY MAXIMUM WITHIN THE
LONG-WAVE TROUGH BASE OVER THE LOWER CO VALLEY WILL REACH THE
CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...PRIOR TO
MOVING INTO THE MID MO VALLEY BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE TO THESE UPPER-AIR DEVELOPMENTS...A LEE CYCLONE OVER
N-CNTRL NM WILL DEVELOP SEWD ALONG AN ASSOCIATED STATIONARY BOUNDARY
INTO NWRN TX BY 18/00Z BEFORE ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE LOWER MO
VALLEY BY 18/12Z. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ATTENDANT TO THIS MIGRATORY
CYCLONE WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE OZARKS AND LOWER MO/OH VALLEYS AS
A WARM FRONT. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE SRN PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL STRETCH FROM CNTRL
THROUGH SWRN OK INTO THE SRN TX PNHDL BY THE 17/21-18/00Z TIME
FRAME. A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD THROUGH WRN TX TODAY...LIKELY
REACHING NWRN TX INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY BY PEAK HEATING. BY
TONIGHT...EXPECT THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY TO SURGE SEWD
ACROSS WRN/CNTRL PARTS OF OK/TX AS A COLD FRONT.
...SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS...
12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS SHOWED A POTENT COMBINATION OF RICH BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE /I.E. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13-14 G PER
KG/ BENEATH A PRONOUNCED EML WHERE 700-500-MB LAPSE RATES WERE
APPROACHING 8.5-9.0 C/KM. WHERE STRONGER HEATING CAN OCCUR...THESE
PARAMETERS WILL YIELD A MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG.
TODAY/S SEVERE WEATHER SCENARIO REMAINS COMPLICATED BY VARYING MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON FRONTAL PLACEMENT...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY DAY
STORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPARENT WEAK IMPULSE CURRENTLY
PROGRESSING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE
THAT INITIAL SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE RETREATING WARM FRONT OVER
ERN KS INTO MO. HERE...A RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING AIR MASS
WILL COINCIDE WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...TORNADOES
/SOME POSSIBLY STRONG/...AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEE RECENTLY ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 114 FOR DETAILS.
STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS BY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES.
FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT FROM N-CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX...STRONGER
CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO DELAY STORM INITIATION UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPMENT
OCCURRING NEAR THE DRYLINE-FRONT TRIPLE POINT. DESPITE AN INITIAL
WEAKNESS IN FORECAST HODOGRAPHS IN THE 2.5-4 KM AGL LAYER...THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND
LONG-TRACKED/. AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR OF OK WHERE HODOGRAPHS WILL
GROW INCREASINGLY LARGE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE.
STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A BROKEN LINE ALONG THE
SURGING COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES.
...SRN IA/NRN MO/IL INTO TONIGHT...
CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FORCED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT
THE TERMINUS OF A 40-50 KT LLJ...AND DCVA ATTENDANT TO A VORTICITY
MAXIMUM OVER CNTRL IA /PER RADAR DATA/. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO
CONTINUE EWD TODAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.
...PARTS OF KY/TN THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE STORM REGENERATION OCCURRING FROM CNTRL
KY INTO NERN TN...ALONG THE WRN EDGE OF A RESIDUAL COLD POOL
ATTENDANT TO A NOCTURNAL MCS. MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z NASHVILLE
SOUNDING FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS INDICATES THAT THE AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF AROUND
2500 J/KG...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE FURTHER STORM INTENSIFICATION.
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 12Z CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH
DEVELOPS A SWWD/SWD-PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THIS
EVENING. THOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY WILL FOSTER INTENSE UP/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD/LEITMAN.. 04/17/2013
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1638Z (12:38PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Re:
CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: little change in categories in the main threat area, secondary Slight Risk area in TN/KY
Just a slight expansion, except for the hail probabilities. These have been expanded ENE some.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
wx247 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:1630Z: little change in categories in the main threat area, secondary Slight Risk area in TN/KY
Just a slight expansion, except for the hail probabilities. These have been expanded ENE some.
Seems the guys placed the epicenter right over your head, Gar !
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
ZCZC SPCPWOSPC ALL
WOUS40 KWNS 171640
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
TRACKED/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHERN TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN.
WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..MEAD/GARNER/HART.. 04/17/2013
$$
WOUS40 KWNS 171640
KSZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180200-
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT WED APR 17 2013
...A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG
TRACKED/...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
FAR WESTERN MISSOURI
MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
FAR NORTHERN TEXAS
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
ILLINOIS...AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN.
WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL ADVANCE NORTHWARD
INTO OKLAHOMA...MISSOURI...AND KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.
FARTHER SOUTH OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT AND POTENTIALLY LONG TRACKED INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR OF OKLAHOMA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT...STORMS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION WILL MERGE INTO A SQUALL LINE WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.
STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS DEVELOPING
SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA
WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER
TODAY.
..MEAD/GARNER/HART.. 04/17/2013
$$
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WeatherGuesser
- Category 5
- Posts: 2672
- Joined: Tue Jun 29, 2010 6:46 am
Re:
Bunkertor wrote:OK is already jammed by chasing cars
Hopefully at least some of them will be arrested.
I wish these guys would stay home in their Mommy's basements playing D&D.
0 likes
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
SPC AC 171715
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN LOWER MI...ERN/SRN
IL...WRN/NRN IND...SERN MO...FAR WRN KY/TN...ERN AR...NWRN MS...FAR
NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE CONSISTING OF POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON THU...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 12Z/THU WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
EJECT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO WI/IL WITH AN INTENSE AND
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 100 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE IA/IL
BORDER NEWD TOWARDS NRN LK MI. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EWD LIKELY REACHING LK MI TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD IN LOWER MI...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR N IT WILL EXTEND WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION
EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY.
...GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
ALONG BOTH FRONTAL ZONES. DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST AIR
MASS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE MIDWEST CHARACTERIZED BY 60S TO
LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST A REMNANT EML PLUME EMANATING
N/NEWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CONUS...SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.
LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WITH NRN
EXTENT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE QLCS THAT
WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR.
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE QLCS AS MLCIN BECOMES MINIMAL. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
PREVALENT WITH SRN EXTENT WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
PROBABLE ALONG WITH A ROBUST TORNADO RISK /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT/. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE PLUME IS PINCHED OFF WITH
NRN EXTENT GIVEN DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY.
..GRAMS.. 04/17/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (1:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SWRN LOWER MI...ERN/SRN
IL...WRN/NRN IND...SERN MO...FAR WRN KY/TN...ERN AR...NWRN MS...FAR
NERN LA...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE
WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE CONSISTING OF POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERAL TORNADOES APPEARS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ON THU...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AT 12Z/THU WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO
THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY FRI. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL
EJECT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO WI/IL WITH AN INTENSE AND
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX /AOA 100 KT/ OVERSPREADING THE
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE IA/IL
BORDER NEWD TOWARDS NRN LK MI. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EWD LIKELY REACHING LK MI TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THU EVENING. A
WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVANCE NWD IN LOWER MI...WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR N IT WILL EXTEND WITH ABUNDANT CONVECTION
EXPECTED N OF THE BOUNDARY.
...GREAT LAKES TO THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
FAIRLY EXTENSIVE BANDS OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
ALONG BOTH FRONTAL ZONES. DIURNAL HEATING WITHIN A RICHLY MOIST AIR
MASS FROM THE WRN GULF INTO THE MIDWEST CHARACTERIZED BY 60S TO
LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS AMIDST A REMNANT EML PLUME EMANATING
N/NEWD ACROSS THE S-CNTRL CONUS...SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WITH MLCAPE REACHING 1000-2000 J/KG.
LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR/HODOGRAPHS WILL BE IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WITH NRN
EXTENT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR. THESE FACTORS COMBINED
WITH STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT WILL LIKELY YIELD AN EXTENSIVE QLCS THAT
WILL INTENSIFY AND INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL
BE FAVORED...ESPECIALLY WITH NRN EXTENT GIVEN THE DEGREE OF SHEAR.
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE QLCS AS MLCIN BECOMES MINIMAL. THIS WOULD SEEM TO BE MORE
PREVALENT WITH SRN EXTENT WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BE
PROGRESSIVELY WEAKER. SWATHS OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR
PROBABLE ALONG WITH A ROBUST TORNADO RISK /SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT/. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE MOISTURE PLUME IS PINCHED OFF WITH
NRN EXTENT GIVEN DOWNSLOPE DRYING OFF THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
CNTRL/UPPER OH VALLEY.
..GRAMS.. 04/17/2013
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1730Z (1:30PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0492
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171726Z - 171830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SW
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WELL TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -15 C AT 500 MB/ MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE WATCH 113 IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42468783 42828764 43128644 43118530 42858439 42438422
42018421 41748438 41658488 41678581 41668725 41748759
42468783
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MICHIGAN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 171726Z - 171830Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
WHILE A MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUST AND SOME SMALL HAIL IS
POSSIBLE...OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AND A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING UPSTREAM ACROSS NRN IL
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E/NE ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SW
MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN
ELEVATED GIVEN COOL BOUNDARY LAYER WELL TO THE NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER CELLS. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-10 TO -15 C AT 500 MB/ MAY
ALSO SUPPORT SMALL HAIL PRODUCTION. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW THAT A WW DOWNSTREAM OF SEVERE WATCH 113 IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...
LAT...LON 42468783 42828764 43128644 43118530 42858439 42438422
42018421 41748438 41658488 41678581 41668725 41748759
42468783
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
First severe storm warnings of the event have gone up in SC KS, just southeast of Dodge City. That cell is being warned for quarter sized hail and gusty winds.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 20 MILES EAST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...KERR
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY
FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1240 PM
UNTIL 900 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
BOWLING GREEN KENTUCKY TO 20 MILES EAST OF CHATTANOOGA TENNESSEE.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...
DISCUSSION...STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A WEST SOUTHWESTWARD
ADVANCING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOME RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES INTO EARLY
EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 50
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27020.
...KERR
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Re: Another multi-day outbreak (April 17-18)
Tornado Watch, maybe PDS, coming out shortly:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171809Z - 171945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
KS.
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE
FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...
EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU.
THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND
THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX
EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN
TX.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF
THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE
CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES.
FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT
IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W
THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.
..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
AMA...
LAT...LON 34150017 34800000 35949978 37189924 37809704 37969555
37779513 36769498 35049655 33899800 33049938 32910019
33140035 34150017
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0493
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX INTO
SWRN...CENTRAL...NERN OK...AND SERN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 171809Z - 171945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AREAS INCLUDING NORTHWEST TX INTO SWRN...CENTRAL TO NERN OK AND SERN
KS.
WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE TORNADO WATCH THREAT AREA...ELEVATED
TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS W THROUGH NW OK AND SPREAD
INTO SRN KS. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN SURFACE MESOANALYSES INDICATED THE SURFACE
FRONT ORIENTED FROM SW-NE ACROSS OK HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY...
EXTENDING FROM INVOF KLTS TO 10 N KOKC TO 35 N KCQB TO 20 W CNU.
THE SRN EXTENSION OF THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED SWD INTO NWRN TX...AND
THEN NWWD AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE SRN TX PANHANDLE. ALTHOUGH THE
DRY LINE WAS LOCATED FARTHER W ACROSS WEST TX...BOUNDARY LAYER
MODIFICATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUGGEST THE DRY LINE WILL MIX
EWD WITH THE TRIPLE POINT EVENTUALLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED IN NWRN
TX.
STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE FRONTS IN NWRN TX AND E OF
THE DRY LINE ARE QUICKLY ERODING SURFACE INHIBITION FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING INVOF HASKELL/STONEWALL COUNTIES WHERE
CU HAS BEEN GROWING DEEPER. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S WILL BREACH THE CAP AND SUPPORT
TSTM INITIATION ACROSS NWRN TX SOON. THIS SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY
THE 15Z RAP. STRONG TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS/DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
WITH ALL FACETS OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY...INCLUDING TORNADOES.
FARTHER W/NW...TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP W OF THE SURFACE FRONT
IN OK...WITH THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING ELEVATED. THIS ACTIVITY IS
BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL WAA AND DEEP LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF A SWLY MIDLEVEL JET. WW ISSUANCE FOR THE AREAS W
THROUGH NW OF THE FRONT IS UNCERTAIN.
..PETERS/KERR.. 04/17/2013
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...
AMA...
LAT...LON 34150017 34800000 35949978 37189924 37809704 37969555
37779513 36769498 35049655 33899800 33049938 32910019
33140035 34150017
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wx247
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 14279
- Age: 41
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 10:35 pm
- Location: Monett, Missouri
- Contact:
Tornado probs slightly lower than first watch.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
-
CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
Surprisingly only 50/30:
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...WHILE
DEVELOPING EASTWARD.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...KERR
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 116
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
120 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS TEXAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 120 PM
UNTIL 1100 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF BARTLESVILLE
OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF WICHITA FALLS TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW 115...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING...WHILE
DEVELOPING EASTWARD.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...KERR
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CrazyC83
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 34001
- Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
- Location: Deep South, for the first time!
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW
115...WW 116...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM NEAR
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD
FRONT...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OR PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING
SQUALL LINE BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...KERR
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT WED APR 17 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS
* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
LEAVENWORTH KANSAS TO 60 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CHANUTE KANSAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 113...WW 114...WW
115...WW 116...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY FORM NEAR
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...AND ALONG AND AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD
FRONT...LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL INCLUDE A FEW
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OR PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES.
ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND CONSOLIDATE INTO AN EVOLVING
SQUALL LINE BY THIS EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.
...KERR
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While the Oklahoma/NW Texas threat is very serious, my greatest concern is growing for Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. It's very unstable there and that warm front means business, they will have a strong low level jet to contend with this evening. Be alert in the show me state.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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wx247
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:While the Oklahoma/NW Texas threat is very serious, my greatest concern is growing for Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. It's very unstable there and that warm front means business, they will have a strong low level jet to contend with this evening. Be alert in the show me state.
I have seen some concerns about lack of lifting mechanism. What do you think about the timing of this?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
wx247 wrote:Ntxw wrote:While the Oklahoma/NW Texas threat is very serious, my greatest concern is growing for Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. It's very unstable there and that warm front means business, they will have a strong low level jet to contend with this evening. Be alert in the show me state.
I have seen some concerns about lack of lifting mechanism. What do you think about the timing of this?
Hm, does that help ?
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Re: Re:
wx247 wrote:Ntxw wrote:While the Oklahoma/NW Texas threat is very serious, my greatest concern is growing for Missouri and northeast Oklahoma. It's very unstable there and that warm front means business, they will have a strong low level jet to contend with this evening. Be alert in the show me state.
I have seen some concerns about lack of lifting mechanism. What do you think about the timing of this?
I think just around sunset as the bulk of the trough kicks out into the plains there will be plenty of lift. Areas to the west is closer proximity to the cold front which will likely undercut the storms (SW/SC Oklahoma) but in the areas mentioned above not so much so there will be a longer window of opportunity for discrete cells to traverse that warm front boundary well into the evening and night time hours.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
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