Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Gustywind]

stay dry Gusty

Thanks Barbara. Thas was a strong one yesterday, hopefully things have calm down a bit. Whereas, Meteo-France have maintained the orange alert for at least this afternoon. Things may improve tonight but especially tommorow. We will see how the things evolves.

[Gustywind]

Here is the latest weather forecast for Guadeloupe given our Pro Mets of Meteo-France Guadeloupe.

Sunday, April 21, 2013 at 05 h 36 legal is 09:36 UTC
Episode n ° 8-GD
Level of vigilance: ORANGE
Danger: Heavy rains and thunderstorms
Validity: ongoing until Sunday, April 21, 2013 afternoon at least
Current situation:
Air is very humid in the low and middle layers of the atmosphere, which makes the sky very load and gives frequent rains of low and medium intensity, with showers occasionally more marked. In addition, the conditions in altitude on the region are favorable for development
of quick thunderstorm cells. Thunderstorms are currently seen on the Caribbean Sea just west of our islands.

Forecasts:
Frequent rains continue to fall under a cloudy sky. They are sometimes occasionally more pronounced. Thunderstorms observed at sea can overflow onto our islands this morning, causing heavy rains. A gradual improvement is expected for this afternoon
and tonight.

Observed data:
Accumulations of water over the last 24 hours overall reach 40 to 60 mm on all of
the archipelago, with a max of 100-120mm on the massif of the volcano la Soufrière.

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 21 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning:   Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over eastern and central parishes.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

For those who are interrested, here are some pics of the impressive floodings who have occured Thursday and Friday at Rivière Pilote in Martinica.

http://www.martinique.franceantilles.fr ... #diaporama

[msbee]

Wow, Gusty, what a mess!
Too bad we couldn't have spread some of that rain around

[Gustywind]

Wow, Gusty, what a mess!
Too bad we couldn't have spread some of that rain around

Yeah, unhopefully Mother Nature don't want share it in some cases! That was a mess for sure but Guadeloupe was not so far from that. If i've pics or videos i will post them soon.

[Gustywind]

Videos of some damages in Martinica via Guadeloupe TV.


http://guadeloupe.la1ere.fr/emissions/j ... direct-ici

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe back off the orange alert and now Yellow alert.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
236 PM AST SUN APR 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST NORTH NORTHEAST OF PUERTO
RICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE
FILLING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SURFACE HIGH
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE
TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED ABUNDANT
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WHILE FILLING TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...
DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE LOCAL REGION REMAINS WITH LIMITED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS THIS AFTERNOON. FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS. ANOTHER SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO BY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE STABLE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...WITH ONLY THE TYPICAL SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH NIGHT AND EARLY IN THE
MORNING WITH FEW AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO EACH AFTERNOON. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION WILL REACH THE REGION BY MID
WEEK...INDUCING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...NO CHANGES TO PREV FCST...MOSTLY VFR CONDS AT LOCAL
TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT
MONDAY...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FEET AND WINDS 21 KNOTS OR
LESS. BUOY DATA SUPPORT AFOREMENTIONED TREND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 73 85 72 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 74 86 75 86 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Good morning and happy Earth day to all. A few showers will move thru PR and adjacent islands today and tomorrow but a big increase in moisture will occur by mid-week when a trough moves nearby.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
353 AM AST MON APR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TUE.
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SW ATLC INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES
MID WEEK BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT EXPECT FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUE. MOISTURE SURGES LATE TUE NIGHT AS SRN
STREAM TROF OVR THE SW ATLC AMPLIFIES INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH THIS TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE ECMWF BEING MORE AMPLIFIED
AND SLOWER INDICATING EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT INTO ANOTHER DEEP
CUTOFF LOW THAT IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MID TO LATE
WEEK. WHILE MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH PWAT
VALUES BARELY REACHING THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR...LIFT AND INSTABILITY ARE WITH LOCAL AREA EXPECTED TO BE
UNDER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH H5 TEMPS AOB -10C WHICH IS TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. WED LOOKS TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAY BUT THIS COULD EXTEND
INTO THU-FRI IF THE MORE AGRESSIVE ECMWF VERIFIES. SPRING TIME IS
THE TIME OF THE YEAR FOR CUTOFF LOWS AND LATE APRIL CAN HAVE SOME
PRETTY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SO THE ECMWF SOLUTION CAN`T BE
COMPLETELY IGNORED. THE STEERING FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE
WEAK WED SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM INLAND AND BE VERY SLOW
MOVERS WITH AN EASTWARD DRIFT AS STEERING WINDS BECOME FROM THE
WEST AND MORE FROM THE NORTH THU-FRI WITH TSTMS BEING CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE SMALL HAIL DUE TO
VERY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. BY SAT...THE ECMWF SHOWS CUTOFF
LOW PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING SUBDSIDENCE/WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES.
OVERALL...EXPECT AN IMPROVEMENT IN WEATHER CONDITIONS SAT THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST...WITH EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
A VCSH POSSIBLE AT JMZ AFT 22/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 3-5 FT AND WINDS UP 20KT DIMINISHING TO
15-KT MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...APRIL 2013 CURRENTLY RANKS AS THE THIRD WARMEST APRIL
ON RECORD AT THE LUIS MUNOZ MARIN INTL AIRPORT IN SAN JUAN WITH
AN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 81.4 DEGREES F. IN ADDITION...2013
REPRESENTS THE TENTH DRIEST START TO A YEAR AT CHRISTIANSTED
AIRPORT IN SAINT CROIX WITH 4.92 INCHES OBSERVED SO FAR.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 75 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 76 86 76 / 20 30 30 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 22 2013
 

Significant Feature: High pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 15 knots (18 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
251 PM AST MON APR 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD TODAY AND TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO A MID TO UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY MIDWEEK. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE PROGRESSIVELY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY AND STABLE
AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. IN FACT...SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF 25-35 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE
ACROSS MOST OF PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. UNDER THIS STABLE
PATTERN...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHWEST PORTIONS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION.

THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
EAST COAST OF UNITED STATES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN EVOLVES OVER
THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH ALOFT WILL
KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS UNTIL AT
LEAST FRIDAY. GOOD VENTILATION ALOFT AND THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. AS A RESULT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH OVER THE INTERIOR AND
WEST PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES JUST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SEA BREEZE
VARIATIONS UNTIL 23/00Z. WINDS TO DECREASE GENERALLY TO 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MAINLY FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...NO MARINE HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...EXCEPT FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS OF WESTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET AREA EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS. LONG TERM...MARINE GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING A SOLID
NE SWELL ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 74 85 75 87 / 30 30 20 30
STT 74 86 76 85 / 30 30 10 10

[Gustywind]

Good news my friends, Guadeloupe is on green code now since yesterday afternoon .

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France told us that the perturbed area is moving out of our area. The rainfall average was near 70 to 90 millimeters on the island and close to 140 mm near our volcano la Soufriere.
That was another pleasant episode for us because of the severe drought. Looks like things are well balanced on the butterfly island in terms of rainfaill Thanks God!

Hey next time, let's hope that Barbara and the Northern Leewards will have more from another rain marker We continue to keep our fingers cross Msbee I dont't forget you too en la isla del encanto Cycloneye

[Gustywind]

For info, given latest weather forecast of Meteo-France Guadeloupe and Martinica.... again next Friday and Saturday could be very wet days even we're far about that. I will keep your informed if this tendency take shapes during the next 48 h 72H.

[cycloneye]

Meteo-France told us that the perturbed area is moving out of our area. The rainfall average was near 70 to 90 millimeters on the island and close to 140 mm near our volcano la Soufriere.
That was another pleasant episode for us because of the severe drought. Looks like things are well balanced on the butterfly island in terms of rainfaill Thanks God!

Hey next time, let's hope that Barbara and the Northern Leewards will have more from another rain marker We continue to keep our fingers cross Msbee I dont't forget you too en la isla del encanto Cycloneye

The 2013 Hurricane Season is getting closer and that is a signal to be prepared for the worse but hoping for any threats to any of the islands.

[Gustywind]

Meteo-France told us that the perturbed area is moving out of our area. The rainfall average was near 70 to 90 millimeters on the island and close to 140 mm near our volcano la Soufriere.
That was another pleasant episode for us because of the severe drought. Looks like things are well balanced on the butterfly island in terms of rainfaill Thanks God!

Hey next time, let's hope that Barbara and the Northern Leewards will have more from another rain marker We continue to keep our fingers cross Msbee I dont't forget you too en la isla del encanto Cycloneye

The 2013 Hurricane Season is getting closer and that is a signal to be prepared for the worse but hoping for any threats to any of the islands.

You're maybe right so let's be on our guard as usual Cycloneye.

[Macrocane]

Rainfall increased in Central America last week and it seems that the transition to the rainy season has begun. In the town of Santiago Nonualco in El Salvador 101 mm/3.98 inches of rain were registered on Sunday, it was the rainiest day in the country since October 19, 2012.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A trough will move close to the islands Wednesday thru Thursday period bringing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
414 AM AST TUE APR 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP FAIR WX CONDITIONS
TODAY. TROF EXITING THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL AMPLIFY WITH AXIS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU. TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA FRI WITH IMPROVING WX CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...00Z MODEL SUITE SHOWS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN AT
THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW TRENDING TOWARD THE 00Z
GFS/GEFS SHOWING A LESS AMPLIFIED AND A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WED-THU WITH AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA
FRI. FOR TODAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP FAIR
WX CONDITIONS. ON WED...TROF AMPLIFYING INTO THE DOM REP AND PR
WILL PROMOTE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND STEEPEN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WITH TSTMS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE CORDILLERA AS INDUCED SFC TROF
WEAKENS PRES GRADIENT AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. STEERING CURRENTS BECOME VERY WEAK FROM THE WEST SO
EXPECT TSTMS TO MOVE VERY LITTLE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO H5 TEMPS TWO STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL AND WBZ HEIGHTS BELOW 12KFT WILL ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT TSTMS TO BE PROLIFIC LIGHTNING PRODUCERS. ON
THU...STEERING CURRENTS BECOME MORE FROM THE NORTH WITH TSTMS
FORMING ON THE SRN SLOPES AND MOVING SWD INTO THE CARIB SEA BY
EVENING.

TROF AXIS SWINGS BY EARLY FRI WITH UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ESTABLISHING LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING FRI THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SO AS WE APPROACH THE END OF APRIL WHICH TYPICALLY
SIGNALS THE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON CONDITIONS LOOK RATHER DRY FOR
THE LAST FIVE DAYS OF THE MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS
IN AND AROUND JSJ/IST/ISX TIL 23/13Z. AFT 23/16Z...SHALLOW AFTERNOON
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NW PR AND MAY AFFECT JMZ/JBQ.
EAST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...SEAS 3-5 FT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AOB 15 KT. A
SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON SWELL EVENT IS NOW FORECAST BY WW3 FOR SAT-SUN
WITH STRONG SUPPORT FROM GLOBAL WAVE WATCH INDICATING 100% PROB OF
EXCEEDING 3-METER SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 84 73 / 30 20 30 30
STT 85 74 85 74 / 30 10 10 10

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 23 2013
 

Significant Feature: A surface trough across the western Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers over sections of the island.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)