Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[HurricaneB]

I know sea surface temps are only one factor in predicting a hurricane season but I really think we will see some revised numbers soon......they are too low...the gulf is boiling already like never before......this might be one of those came out of nowhere years

May 9 2012 *** NOW ***


May 10 2005


May 9 2008

[NDG]

Maybe a good warm up for the tropical Atlantic? If GFS ensembles are correct this will be the most negative the NAO will be since at least last summer.

[TheBurn]

SST Map at the start of the Atlantic Season

[Kingarabian]

SST Map at the start of the Atlantic Season

Barely conducive excluding the Caribbean and the GOM.

[cycloneye]

Look how the North Atlantic basin in many areas has been warming since the NAO turned negative. March had the coldest waters. 6 month loop below.

[SFLcane]

Look how the North Atlantic basin in many areas has been warming since the NAO turned negative. March had the coldest waters. 6 month loop below.

Also take note off the North Atlantic tripole developing a sign of an active season possibly in the cards.

[NDG]

The average to negative NAO during the last couple of months was something that was not expected by many forecasters.
Now look how warmer (compared to earlier this year) than average the Atlantic Basin is.

[cycloneye]

For those who may not know what a North Atlantic tripole is as mentioned by our friend SFLcane,here is a graphic about it.

[cycloneye]

The ECMWF continues to forecast -NAO thru the end of June.



And NCEP the same.



This means more warming of the Atlantic waters.

[NDG]

Hmm, continuing negative NAO with neutral ENSO conditions, could be a busier than average next couple of months across the basin, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Bumping this thread to see how things stand in the sst,s and ssta,s.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I was reading some of the posts above and should note that a negative NAO does not automatically guarantee a warming Atlantic, and a positive NAO does not automatically guarantee a cooling Atlantic; sometimes these are switched. For example...

We are currently in the postive NAO phase, and it's quite potent as well...the highest we've seen in well over several months. However, because the dipole -- the separation of positive/negative charges, in this case the separation of below and above-average trade winds -- has shifted farther north, very weak trade winds encompass, and are forecast to encompass, much of the tropical Atlantic and MDR through the end of this month. This is leading to a substantial warm-up.

[artist]

I was reading some of the posts above and should note that a negative NAO does not automatically guarantee a warming Atlantic, and a positive NAO does not automatically guarantee a cooling Atlantic; sometimes these are switched. For example...

We are currently in the postive NAO phase, and it's quite potent as well...the highest we've seen in well over several months. However, because the dipole -- the separation of positive/negative charges, in this case the separation of below and above-average trade winds -- has shifted farther north, very weak trade winds encompass, and are forecast to encompass, much of the tropical Atlantic and MDR through the end of this month. This is leading to a substantial warm-up.

thanks for that descriptive post.

[cycloneye]

The April 22nd update. No change to the warmer than average Tropical Atlantic.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Hotbed of trouble. We need to keep an eye on this. Any early-season waves headed across, on the normal April-ITCZ latitude?

(At least I think waves travel year-round, even when the ITCZ sinks south.)

[cycloneye]

There is another warmup starting.

[HurricaneFan]

Is it normal for the cold part of Atlantic Tripole to reach the NE Caribbean?And how long will it last?

[cycloneye]

Is it normal for the cold part of Atlantic Tripole to reach the NE Caribbean?And how long will it last?

If the NAO goes negative soon as forecast then things will warm in the NE Caribbean waters where is not so warm.

[USTropics]

Before it gets busy on here, just wanted to throw some thanks to Cycloneye for doing an amazing job like usual with the continuous updates throughout the off season. He is always spot on.

Also to add some more insight to what most of us are expecting to happen here shortly (a quick ramp up of SSTAs), I've been looking at the GFS ensembles 10m zonal wind anomaly 7 day average the past week. Here is an image from a week ago:


Now compare that to the most current run and you'll see massive zonal wind anomaly developing across the MDR and the East Atlantic:


The GEM ensembles also is in agreement:


What does all this mean? We should see a significant drop in the trade winds as a cutoff low replaces the current position of the subtropical ridge. Since trade winds act as a cooling mechanism to the SSTs, with slow to nonexistent trade winds an increase in SSTAs is expected in the MDR to East Atlantic region through at least the next 2 weeks. This is also what TropicalAnalystwx13 and others have been eluding to from the weekend conversation.

This is a link to the models of the graphics that I used:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[cycloneye]

Here is the latest MDR data.