Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season

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ninel conde

#121 Postby ninel conde » Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:20 pm

i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.
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#122 Postby SFLcane » Sun Apr 14, 2013 8:51 pm

ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.


please link if possible :0)
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#123 Postby ninel conde » Sun Apr 14, 2013 9:01 pm

its in his newsletter and im not sure he allows it to be posted.
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#124 Postby vbhoutex » Mon Apr 15, 2013 1:19 am

ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.

I'm checking with Larry about this and have asked permission to post his forecast or for him to post it in this thread. I'll post something about his response or he may just go ahead and do it.
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Re:

#125 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:20 am

ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.


As the admin said,if is with permission it will be posted.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#126 Postby ninel conde » Mon Apr 15, 2013 5:44 am

i hope he says its ok.
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#127 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:03 pm

http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/

This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#128 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:52 pm

:uarrow: NC University is added to the first post. Waiting for confirmation of permission to post the Larry Cosgrove forecast.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#129 Postby cycloneye » Fri Apr 19, 2013 4:02 pm

The April discussion of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season by Levi Cowan is posted at first post list of experts.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#130 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:31 am

The only two private entities that are on the list and still don't have a forecast are FSU and Accuweather. Does anyone have a tip about when those two may release a forecast? And still waiting for the permission to post Larry Cosgrove's forecast.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#131 Postby tolakram » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:00 am

It's interesting that the Euro climate models are showing a possible warm-neutral signal for the peak of the season and higher pressures in the MDR. The idea that the model doesn't have skill during multi-year neutral conditions is interesting, but is that an accurate statement?
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#132 Postby cycloneye » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:22 pm

tolakram wrote:It's interesting that the Euro climate models are showing a possible warm-neutral signal for the peak of the season and higher pressures in the MDR. The idea that the model doesn't have skill during multi-year neutral conditions is interesting, but is that an accurate statement?


Well Mark look what we have now. I posted in the 2013 Steering Pattern / Early Indicators thread about a difference between the operational ECMWF and the Eurosip ensembles. Now let's see what happens in the May updates by both.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#133 Postby vbhoutex » Wed Apr 24, 2013 12:37 am

Larry Cosgrove will be posting a more detailed forecast on May 1. That will be what we will post here when we get it.
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Re:

#134 Postby artist » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:13 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/

This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!


here is the link to their actual reasoning, etc. -

http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf
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Re: Re:

#135 Postby cycloneye » Wed Apr 24, 2013 1:29 pm

artist wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/

This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!


here is the link to their actual reasoning, etc. -

http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf


Added the more complete analysis link by them.Thanks for posting it.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#136 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Apr 25, 2013 12:26 pm

hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet

http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#137 Postby cycloneye » Thu Apr 25, 2013 1:31 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet

http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg


Added to the first post list.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#138 Postby wxman57 » Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:16 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet

http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg


Added to the first post list.


I'd indicate high risk for all the northern Caribbean islands, and I'd continue the red across the FL Panhandle to LA.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#139 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:23 pm

Never really understood these high risk forecast. For example a tropical cyclone is not a point it's impacts can stretch for many miles away from center of circulation. Something that may impact the west coast of Florida could also bring adverse wx on both coast east and west.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

#140 Postby SFLcane » Thu Apr 25, 2013 2:25 pm

wxman57 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:
Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet

http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg


Added to the first post list.


I'd indicate high risk for all the northern Caribbean islands, and I'd continue the red across the FL Panhandle to LA.


What's your take on floridas eastcoast?
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