Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.
please link if possible :0)
0 likes
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29112
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.
I'm checking with Larry about this and have asked permission to post his forecast or for him to post it in this thread. I'll post something about his response or he may just go ahead and do it.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i dont know if larry cosgrove's forecasts can be posted here but he said in his newsletter 17/8/4 with a bad season for florida and gulf coast.
As the admin said,if is with permission it will be posted.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- hurricanetrack
- HurricaneTrack.com
- Posts: 1781
- Joined: Tue Dec 02, 2003 10:46 pm
- Location: Wilmington, NC
- Contact:
http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/
This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!
This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)

0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
The April discussion of the 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane season by Levi Cowan is posted at first post list of experts.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
The only two private entities that are on the list and still don't have a forecast are FSU and Accuweather. Does anyone have a tip about when those two may release a forecast? And still waiting for the permission to post Larry Cosgrove's forecast.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20009
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
It's interesting that the Euro climate models are showing a possible warm-neutral signal for the peak of the season and higher pressures in the MDR. The idea that the model doesn't have skill during multi-year neutral conditions is interesting, but is that an accurate statement?
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
tolakram wrote:It's interesting that the Euro climate models are showing a possible warm-neutral signal for the peak of the season and higher pressures in the MDR. The idea that the model doesn't have skill during multi-year neutral conditions is interesting, but is that an accurate statement?
Well Mark look what we have now. I posted in the 2013 Steering Pattern / Early Indicators thread about a difference between the operational ECMWF and the Eurosip ensembles. Now let's see what happens in the May updates by both.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- vbhoutex
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 29112
- Age: 73
- Joined: Wed Oct 09, 2002 11:31 pm
- Location: Cypress, TX
- Contact:
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
Larry Cosgrove will be posting a more detailed forecast on May 1. That will be what we will post here when we get it.
0 likes
Re:
hurricanetrack wrote:http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/
This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!
here is the link to their actual reasoning, etc. -
http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Re:
artist wrote:hurricanetrack wrote:http://news.ncsu.edu/releases/tp-xie2013/
This should be added in if not already.... calling for one heck of a season!
here is the link to their actual reasoning, etc. -
http://cfdl.meas.ncsu.edu/research/TCoutlook_2013.pdf
Added the more complete analysis link by them.Thanks for posting it.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7351
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet
http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145299
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet
http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
Added to the first post list.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22978
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
cycloneye wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet
http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
Added to the first post list.
I'd indicate high risk for all the northern Caribbean islands, and I'd continue the red across the FL Panhandle to LA.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
Never really understood these high risk forecast. For example a tropical cyclone is not a point it's impacts can stretch for many miles away from center of circulation. Something that may impact the west coast of Florida could also bring adverse wx on both coast east and west.
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 10163
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: Expert forecasts for 2013 N Atlantic season (See 1st post)
wxman57 wrote:cycloneye wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:hurricane alleys landfall forecast, West coast of Florida and the Texas coast seems to be their target area. No numbers yet
http://www.hurricanealley.net/FORECASTS ... CSTMAP.jpg
Added to the first post list.
I'd indicate high risk for all the northern Caribbean islands, and I'd continue the red across the FL Panhandle to LA.
What's your take on floridas eastcoast?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Stormybajan and 27 guests