Caribbean - Central America Weather

[Macrocane]

An update of the Central American Cold Surges Thread with the observations from the event of late March: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=106879&p=2304167#p2304167

[cycloneye]

Good morning. A big rain event is forecast to begin by Thursday and last thru next weekend bringing heavy showers and thunderstorms thru the PR/USVI and BVI area. Is early to say if this will spread to the Leewards. Stay tuned for more information as the days progress.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE LOCAL AREA IN GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC.

AT LOWER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA GRADUALLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE FORMS
NORTHEAST OF FLORIDA TUESDAY AND MOVES NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT. IT THEN MOVES NORTHEAST
PULLING A TROUGH BEHIND IT WHICH REMAINS IN THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES EACH DAY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS FORMED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN
WATERS. THOSE IN THE ATLANTIC MOVED INTO PUERTO RICOS COASTAL
REGIONS OVERNIGHT LEAVING AS MUCH AS ONE QUARTER TO SEVEN TENTHS OF
AN INCH ALONG THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COAST.
ALTHOUGH NO RAIN WAS RECORDED AT EITHER OF THE MAIN AIRPORTS IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...SHOWERS WERE SEEN IN THE SURROUNDING
WATERS SKIRTING THE ISLANDS. LOCAL SOUNDERS REVEALED BETWEEN 1.3
AND 1.6 INCHES OF PRECIPITABLE WATER.

WINDS AND STABILITY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MUCH THE
SAME RESULTS EXPECTED. IN FACT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
HAVE SIMILAR PATTERNS WITH EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AND STRONG
CONVERGENCE INLAND AND FAVORABLE STABILITY PROFILES SUCH THAT
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM IN THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD. LOCAL
URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN THE AREAS WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAIN.

AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC NORTH
OF THE AREA WILL DRAW UP MORE MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ. A 120 KT JET
WHICH PASSES ABOUT 300 NM NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF
GOOD DIVERGENCE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER PUERTO RICO. AT
THIS SAME TIME LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST CAUSING THE AREAS OF MAXIMUM RAIN TO SHIFT
FROM THEIR USUAL AREAS IN THE WEST AND FOCUS MORE ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOONS. THE SOUTH COAST WILL ALSO SEE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS INCREASING FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE PLUME OF THE MOISTURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AND BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE
CONTINUING TO YIELD GOOD MOISTURE OVER PUERTO RICO. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE THAT DRIER CONDITIONS DO NOT RETURN UNTIL MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

THE LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE UKMET AND THE ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AS PRESENTED IN THE 29/00Z RUN OF THE GFS.
AFTERNOON CAPE WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE BULK
RICHARDSON NUMBERS WILL DROP TO BELOW 50 ON FRIDAY...SATURDAY...SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY FRIDAY MODEL SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW VERY GOOD
MOISTURE AND STRONG OMEGA VALUES. FURTHER THE JET WILL BE IN A
POSITION TO DEVELOP EXCELLENT DYNAMICS.

AT THIS TIME IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT TO MAKE SPECIFIC PREDICTIONS
ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RUN WITH THIS SOLUTION FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. THEY HAVE ON SUCCESSIVE RUNS PUSHED THE WET EVENT
LATER IN TIME...BUT AT THE SAME TIME THEY HAVE INCREASED THE
INTENSITY OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE.

IMPACTS: SHOULD THE MODELS VERIFY THEIR SOLUTIONS...WOULD EXPECT
RAINFALL TO CREATE SERIOUS FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE AREA
IN MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
FORM. MODELS ARE SHOWING SURFACE WINDS TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
GENERAL CONVECTION WILL THEREFORE MOVE LITTLE AND BE CONCENTRATED
OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN AND LEEWARD VALLEYS. THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS COULD RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS WELL AS THE PLUME
FORMS OVER THEM SATURDAY AND CONTINUES OVER THE GENERAL AREA THROUGH
MONDAY WITH EVEN BETTER DYNAMICS THAN APPEAR OVER PUERTO RICO.
RAINFALL OVER PUERTO RICO COULD EXCEED 12 TO 16 INCHES IN PLACES
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAINFALL IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 4 INCHES...OR MORE THAN WHAT HAS FALLEN
SO FAR FOR THE ENTIRE YEAR...IF MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD THIS
SOLUTION.

ACTIONS: EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONSIDER MAKING CONTINGENCY
PLANS FOR HEAVY RAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THAT SPREAD AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENERAL RESIDENTS
SHOULD ALSO REVIEW THEIR PROVISIONS FOR WET WEATHER AND REVIEW
THEIR ACTION PLANS FOR GENERAL AND FLASH FLOODING. LATER WHEN
CONDITIONS ARE MORE CERTAIN ACTUAL PREPARATIONS CAN THEN BEGIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS IN AND AROUND
TJSJ/TIST AND TISX DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AFT 29/16Z AND TIL
29/22Z...SHRA/ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL LEAD TO INCR CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND WEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO.
THIS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF MVFR CONDS EN ROUTE BTW LCL TAF SITES
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND TJSJ...TJBQ...TJMZ AND TJPS.

&&

.MARINE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...SAINT THOMAS...AND SAINT JOHN UNTIL 3 PM
AND RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY AS
SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATER TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS
TIME ARE EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AS SWELL
SUBSIDES. GENERALLY MORE INCLEMENT WEATHER BEGINS ON THURSDAY.
STRONGER WINDS MAY APPEAR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AT MID LATITUDES BUTTS UP AGAINST A CARIBBEAN
LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 85 74 / 50 40 40 30
STT 84 74 86 76 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 29 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[cycloneye]

Yes,,a big rain event looks like in the forecast for the NE Caribbean islands and maybe the other islands of the Lesser Antilles chain so stay tuned for more information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JET STREAK WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRYER TREND THROUGH WED. AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT IT IS INDICATED IN H7 RH FIELDS BUT EXPECT THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL OVERCOME ANY MID LEVEL DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. ALSO STEERING WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT I EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG FROM THE
PAST TWO DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FRI AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND FVRBL
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH. SO WITH PRETTY
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS I EXPECT FRI TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND ERN THIRD OF PR.
SHEARLINE PUSHES INTO ST. CROIX SAT AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MON WHEN IT WILL
START TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. 12Z ECWMF...OP GFS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) INDICATE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS EXTENSIVE DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVR THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED OVR THE CORDILLERA BUT WITH STEERING WINDS SO LIGHT
SHOWERS AREN`T LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 10-FT BREAKERS NO LONGER BEING
GENERATED. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41053 SO ALL
SCA FOR NEARSHORE HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

[Gustywind]

:rain:

Yes,,a big rain event looks like in the forecast for the NE Caribbean islands and maybe the other islands of the Lesser Antilles chain so stay tuned for more information.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
341 PM AST MON APR 29 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD TROF WILL DOMINATE THE WRN ATLC THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A SHEARLINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT AND
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SAT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...JET STREAK WILL BE PULLING OUT TO THE EAST TONIGHT
WITH MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHTLY DRYER TREND THROUGH WED. AT LEAST
THAT IS WHAT IT IS INDICATED IN H7 RH FIELDS BUT EXPECT THAT
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY WILL OVERCOME ANY MID LEVEL DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE TO GENERATE SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. ALSO STEERING WINDS WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
TSTMS EXPECTED TO BE VERY SLOW MOVERS AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BUT I EXPECT A DECREASE IN CVRG FROM THE
PAST TWO DAYS.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN EARNEST FRI AS WINDS TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHEARLINE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND FVRBL
RIGHT ENTRANCE JET DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE NORTH. SO WITH PRETTY
GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AND IMPROVING JET DYNAMICS I EXPECT FRI TO
BE FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS...USVI AND ERN THIRD OF PR.
SHEARLINE PUSHES INTO ST. CROIX SAT AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
SAT NIGHT WHERE IT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY INTO MON WHEN IT WILL
START TO RETREAT NORTHWARD. 12Z ECWMF...OP GFS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) INDICATE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND THUS
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE SRN LEEWARD AND NRN WINDWARD
ISLANDS. EVEN IF IT DOESNT RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...CLOUD COVER
LOOKS EXTENSIVE DUE TO MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVR THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG JET STREAK.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. SCT SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED OVR THE CORDILLERA BUT WITH STEERING WINDS SO LIGHT
SHOWERS AREN`T LIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...SWELLS HAVE SUBSIDED WITH 10-FT BREAKERS NO LONGER BEING
GENERATED. SEAS HAVE DROPPED BETWEEN 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41053 SO ALL
SCA FOR NEARSHORE HAVE BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 85 / 40 40 40 40
STT 75 86 75 85 / 30 30 30 30

Thanks for this precious info Cycloneye. Here in Guadeloupe we begin to keep an eye on. Looks like this scenario can't be out of rule even if we're a bit far away for the moment from what could happen. Anyway, since 4 days Meteo-France Guadeloupe continue to emphasize on the fact that Friday and Saturday should be very rainy with possible isolated tstorms. We will see how the things evolve as usual.

[Gustywind]

Worrying situation in Martinica. Let's hope that things will improve quickly...

http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/martinique.shtml


- Quick update from Martinique


•From: Matthew Cowen <matthew at virek.net>
•Date: Sun, 21 Apr 2013 13:14:26 -0400

Several days of on an off rain, sometimes very heavy. On Thursday we had
intense rains in the middle of the island and just outside my office we had
about 9 inches of water flowing past. Luckily the rains abated and the water
went down ! Friday was more of the same, Saturday too. Many sporting events
outside were put off. There have been quite a few flash floods, electricity
and water cuts due to landslides. 163mm fell in 24 hrs on Morne Rouge, a town
to the north at the foot of the volcano Mt Pele. For this afternoon things
seem to have calmed a bit and hopefully we're over the worst. The ground is
pretty saturated and any reasonable rainfall could easily provoke more
landslides. Let's see what Huricane Season 2013 brings Matthew

[Gustywind]

Wow, very worrying news with these awesome rains who sprayed and kicked Martinica last week! Floodings were numerous and some rivers were under their blanckets. A driver disappears in the river . Our friends in Martinica are always Under an yellow alert. Let's hope that the firemans will find him alive even if the chances are very slim now. Morever, same scenario... a fisherman is missing too... (read full stories). Let's be very vigilant this week as another rain event could occur in the Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days troubles.

The driver disappears in the river

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 31973.html


By Joseph Ncube
Posted 04/28/2013. 19:37, last updated 04/28/2013. 20:00

The 56-year-old man who attempted to cross the Ford of the josseaud district Sunday morning at Rivière-Pilote has not been found. The vehicle in which it took place rose to the surface... but without him.

According to some witnesses present at the scene of the morning, the 56-year-old man attempted to cross the Ford of Josseaud district, but his car stalled. "I helped him to cross but he lacked the necessary equipment, I went for a larger rope, but the water was already", said a witness.

Other witnesses confirmed seeing the vehicle falling into the river but could not intervene because the current was already too strong. As soon as alert, rescuers prepare the contingency plan. As a first step, this is the helicopter of civil security which identifies several metres after the Ford car.

The special unit of firefighters proceeded to the immobilization of the car before leaving the place for divers to find the driver.Three hours after the start of operations, the car has risen to the surface... without the driver. Searches resumed Monday morning with firefighters downriver and by air with the helicopter.



A fisherman was reported missing at sea

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 32211.html

By Joseph Ncube
Published on 29/04/2013. 16:05, last updated 29/04/2013. 16:38

A fisherman for 40 years has been missing at sea since this morning. He disappeared off the coast of Ceron at Sainte-Luce during a fishing expedition.
RCMP divers come to cease inspection of marine funds off the coast of Ceron at Sainte-Luce, but research continues in other forms, ensure the gendarmes. This is the another fisherman who was aboard the boat who gave the alert. His fishing companion, would have plunged off the coast of Ceron but not ascended to the surface, according to the rare information that filter around this worrying disappearance.

[Gustywind]

Always in Martinica, the threat of landslide is somewhat real for some homes. If i've more news from Martinica, i will share you that.


Six homes are under the threat of a landslide

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 32201.html

By Joseph Ncube
Published on 29/04/2013. 14:49, last updated 29/04/2013. 15:20

Families live in fear since Sunday following a spectacular landslide to the district wood soldier in François. At any time should leave the homes if rains still weaken the field.
"This bothers us a little bit because this is our road," tells an inhabitant of wood soldier François with philosophy. Since Sunday morning a landslide prevents car traffic on this road that provides access to the houses. Sunday night, it was same question to evacuate all these families because these incessant rains for two days have greatly weakened the ground.

For a few hours, the rain is less intense and technical services of François seek first to restore circulation and then to analyze the nature of this landslide, with the assistance, inter alia, services of the State and the general Council.


See video on this french verions. You can see the landslide. http://martinique.la1ere.fr/2013/04/29/ ... 32201.html

[Gustywind]

A video showing the car in the river in Martinica while the driver is always missing. http://pluzz.francetv.fr/videos/info_1ere.html

[Gustywind]

Orange alert have been issued for Guadeloupe at 1030 PM for a risk of strong showers and tstorms. Waouw, i'm amazed by Meteo-France choice... have an alert orange at this time of the night! What does it mean, most the people must not have any idea about any bad weather. Thus, no mention of this orange alert from our local radios. Let's hope that nothing too bad will occur during the night.

[Gustywind]

Looks like an earthquake have occured at Barbuda given our local radio. This feature have been felt in Guadeloupe without any damages just a small tremor.

[cycloneye]

Good morning. The big rain event for PR and adjacent islands is still in the forecast to begin from Friday and extending thru next mid-week. Is still uncertain how much rain will fall but the rain that has fallen in the past few days has saturated the grounds and if the anticipated event unfolds,then flash flooding is probable.So stay tuned for more information as time goes by.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
509 AM AST TUE APR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG JET WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA BUT WINDS OVER SAN JUAN AND PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN GENERAL WILL REMAIN ABOVE 50 KNOTS THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY IN WEST SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DROP DOWN TO 35 NORTH 55
WEST BY MONDAY BEFORE PULLING OUT AGAIN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FADE
WHILE LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. ON THURSDAY
THE TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL WEAK RIDGING
BEGINS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT LOWER LEVELS...A MULTI-CENTERED LOW WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF IT WILL JOIN WITH A
WEAKER LOW IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUCH THAT THE LOCAL AREA
IS AFFECTED BY THIS TROUGHING THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. A WEAK
LOW WILL FORM JUST EAST OF GEORGIA TODAY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LOW. GOOD
MOISTURE MOVES AROUND THE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN AND AFFECTS PUERTO
RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL PULL
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IT DRIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT RETURNS MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC HAVE MOVED INLAND
OVER PUERTO RICO AND HAVE DAMPENED THE NORTH AND EAST
COASTS...HOWEVER MUCH LESS RAIN FELL THIS MORNING THAN DURING
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK BRINGING HEAVY AND PERSISTENT
RAIN TO PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH IT MOVES
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY IN THE WEEK IT RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS CONTINUES A TREND OF BOTH AN EASTERLY SHIFT AND
POSTPONEMENT OF THE WETTEST CONDITIONS. THE 30/00Z GFS RUN SHOWS A
PEAK IN THE PRECIPITABLE WATER ON FRIDAY AND ON SUNDAY WITH A DIP
ON MONDAY AND A NEW BETTER SURGE ON TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE GFS
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS TO REMAIN BELOW 2 INCHES UNTIL AT LEAST
MONDAY. MODEL GENERATED SOUNDINGS OVER THE AREA SHOW NOT QUITE AS
MUCH MOISTURE AS IN THE PREVIOUS SOUNDINGS...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE REMAINS FOR FLOODING TO REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND.
BECAUSE OF THE EAST WARD SHIFT OF THE MOISTURE PLUME...IT IS
LIKELY THAT PUERTO RICO WILL SEE A LITTLE LESS OVERALL RAIN THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED SINCE THE PLUME RESIDES OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS LONGER THAN BEFORE...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEEKEND SHOW A
SHIFT OUT OF THE EASTERLIES TOWARD SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THIS NOT ONLY BRINGS MOISTURE UP FROM THE ITCZ BUT
CONTRIBUTES TO SOME OVERALL ORGANIZATION IN A GENERALLY LIGHT LOW
LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT THAT WE MUST CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING AND MAIN-STEM RIVER FLOODING. ALTHOUGH
IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY CERTAINTY THAT HEAVY RAINS
WILL PERSIST DURING THE WEEKEND AND MID WEEK NEXT WEEK OR TO
PREPARE FOR SUCH AN EVENTUALITY...RESIDENTS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD REVIEW THEIR FLOOD OPERATIONAL PLANS
AND MAKE SURE THAT NECESSARY RESOURCES WILL BE AVAILABLE IF
NEEDED. IT STILL APPEARS THAT SOME FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS IS INEVITABLE AND SOILS ARE BEGINNING TO
SATURATE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS OF THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONT TO DOMINATE. ISOLD SHRA MAINLY OFFSHORE THIS
MORNING. NRMS SHRA/SCT TSTM MAIN LY INLAND BY AFT WITH OCNL IFR/MVFR/
OBSCG MTNS. HIGH CHC OF SHRA/TSTM AT TJMZ...WL PROB UPDATE THERE FOR
AFT ACTIVITY. LLVL WIND E 5-15 KT BLO FL080 BCMG W AND INCR SPD ABV.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS WERE ALMOST 7 FEET AT BUOY 41043 AND HAD DROPPED
UNDER 6 FEET AT THE SAN JUAN BUOY 41053. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE UNTIL SUNDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DROPPED
AT 9 AM AST PROVIDING SEAS REMAIN AT OR BELOW CURRENT LEVELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 85 75 / 30 20 20 20
STT 85 75 85 76 / 40 20 20 10

[Gustywind]

Guadeloupe always Under an orange alert. No report of flooding or damages during the night... hopefully.
Whereas, another round of strong showers is expected during the next couple of hours. Our Pro Mets said that wet weather conditions should spread till Sunday with maybe a peak of activity Friday, Saturday and Sunday. I will keep you informed if i've more.

[cycloneye]

There was a quake near Barbuda. See the information on the Caribbean seismic activity thread at Geology subforum.

viewtopic.php?f=67&t=107389&p=2304260#p2304260

[cycloneye]

Code: Select all

JAMAICA WEATHER

 LOCAL FORECAST

April 30 2013
 

Significant Feature: A high pressure ridge across the northern Caribbean.

Morning: Mostly sunny.

Afternoon:  Partly cloudy with isolated showers mainly over hilly interior areas.

Tonight: Fair.

Winds:  Will reach in excess of 10 knots (12 mph)

Temperatures: High: 32C (90F)     Low: 25C (77F)
 


[Gustywind]

Another missing man in Martinica. A fisherman is missing That made 3 missing people in less than 3 days, that's awfull for our friends! Again... chances are more than slim to see him alive. Let's hope.

A patron fisherman disappears at sea under the eyes of his seaman


By Joseph Ncube
Published on 29/04/2013. 16:05, last updated 29/04/2013. 23:15

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 32211.html

Henri Bias, patron of fishing for 46 years has been missing at sea since Monday morning off the coast of Ceron at Sainte-Luce, under the eyes of her sailor who has tried everything to save him.
Monday afternoon, the mounted police divers continued inspection of seabed off the coast of Ceron at Sainte-Luce. They are looking for Henri Bias, 46 years, fishing pattern left lay his traps off the coast of the municipality in the company of his seaman.

On its journey, the fisherman had the misfortune to damage his skiff on the rocks and it's getting relief to swim it disappeared before the eyes of his seaman. Since then, desolation reads on the faces of his loved ones and particularly of the younger daughter of Henri Bias, "the research stop too quickly", said she to whom wants to hear. First aiders announce resumption of these enquiries, including through messages left to the ships operating in the area.

[Gustywind]

Very strong showers are falling on the east side of the island.

[cycloneye]

Let's pay close attention in the Eastern Caribbean islands as very rainy days will be with us later this week and in the weekend.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
329 PM AST TUE APR 30 2013

.SYNOPSIS...BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW PRES ACROSS THE NCNTRL ATLC
WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH INTO THE NRN CARIBBEAN THRU SUN. MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD OVR THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ATLC WILL INDUCE A
BROAD SFC TROF BETWEEN 60W AND 70W THU THRU SAT WITH A SHEARLINE
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA FRI AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SATURDAY
AND INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SUN-MON. IT APPEARS THU AND FRI WILL
BE THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS AS DYNAMICS IMPROVE...LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
INCREASES...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY DEEPEN. STEERING FLOW WILL
SHIFT FROM EAST TODAY TO NORTHEAST ON WED AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH
THU AND FRI FROM WSW TO ENE. EXPECT NORTHEAST PR AND ESPECIALLY
THE USVI TO BE AT GREATEST RISK OF EXPERIENCING HEAVY RAINS. BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE STILL FCST
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY TOTALS ARE
LIKELY.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT SVRL DAYS
WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WSW TO ENE LIKELY AFFECTING
JSJ IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...SEA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT TSTMS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS ADJACENT TO THE USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 75 85 75 86 / 20 30 30 60
STT 75 85 76 85 / 10 20 50 50

[Gustywind]

Last weather forecast for Guadeloupe.

Time for the next hours on Guadeloupe

Tuesday, April 30, 2013
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

Weather-France Guadeloupe, Hello!
3: 45 P.m., the level of vigilance is: Orange for heavy rains/storms, be very careful!

Currently, the stormy weather persists on the whole island, there are few spared localities.
For 3 hours the next few hours, the gloomy weather continues with an accentuation of the rainfall on Basse-Terre, on the islands of the South and the Grands-Fonds, but no locality of the island is protected from sustained stormy rains.

These observations and their immediate evolution will be handed over to day around 18:45PM.

[Gustywind]

Martinica joins Guadeloupe with the orange alert. Now both islands (Guadeloupe and Martinica) are on orange alert.