Long range development possible (ATL)

[OuterBanker]

Japan model sees it. But it pales to what's happening in the Midwest.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 97/photo/1

[artist]

looks more like a non-tropical coastal storm

welcome!

[floridasun78]

this look like only rain maker

[chaser1]

Japan model sees it. But it pales to what's happening in the Midwest.

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 97/photo/1

One isobar does not a tropical cyclone make..... That and the fact that present upper level winds are screaming. A couple days ago when I nearly posted "Florida, welcome to the "new" ITCZ...), I had kind of anticipated to develop, one of those slow turning large 850mb "gyres" to be parked over Florida like we sometimes see quite early or end of season way down south in the S.W. Caribbean. I am not seeing any evidence of a sustained 850mb low. This overall pattern still remains way too hostile for organized development. Does look like a type of set up and with the cold air aloft, for some hit and miss deluge events to occur over different Florida East Coast locations over the next 3-4 days though.

[cycloneye]

This is coming from the NHC marine discussion that opens very slightly the door for something Subtropical.

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT MON APR 29 2013


...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
WEAK RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS THIS
MORNING...WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW PREVAILING. BUOYS
41047 AND 41043 INDICATE SEAS 6 TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
MWW3 GUIDANCE IS INITIALIZES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH MIDWEEK SHOWING A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
RIDGE...AHEAD OF A TROUGH SAGGING SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF NE FLORIDA AND N OF GRAND BAHAMA. BY
FRI...HOWEVER...THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES. THE 12Z
GFS/06Z GEFS INDICATING BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WITH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE
E OF NORTHERN FL AND GA. IN CONTRAST...THE 00Z ECMWF/NAVGEM INDICATE
A MORE COHERENT LOW CENTERED OVER THE FL PENINSULA. AND
FINALLY...THE 12Z UKMET SHOWS A SINGLE LOW OVER LA ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS ARE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP
AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. GIVEN THE WIDE VARIETY OF
POSSIBILITIES...THE CONFIDENCE CURRENTLY IS LOW IN THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED...WHICH IS A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE...GFS...AND ECMWF

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAMIMATS.shtml

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z GFS brings back the low over Florida, looks like it's frontal.

[Evil Jeremy]

The 00z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show... something... off of the FL west coast in around 96-120 hours. The ECMWF doesn't really see much, though the ensemble models do.

I don't see much happening. Maybe we get a preseason TWO.

[SouthDadeFish]

From what I have seen, the genesis of the low is definitely frontal in nature and I don't see this one having much of a chance to acquire subtropical characteristics. Like Evil Jeremy said, maybe we get a preseason TWO. None of the models deepen the low much...

[floridasun78]

wfor weatherman say our weather depend in miami depend low form east of fl by friday

[CrazyC83]

Does that low near NOLA have any chance of becoming tropical in nature?

[Hurricaneman]

Does that low near NOLA have any chance of becoming tropical in nature?

The chances of this becoming a tropical or subtropical system is slim to none

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all showing a frontal low off the FL west coast in 72-96 hours. The ECMWF in particular is showing a much more defined low than it did yesterday. Looks like a fun rain event for the peninsula this weekend.

[cycloneye]

Well, the ATCF folks are doing a test for this area,only a test.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

[chaser1]

Well, the ATCF folks are doing a test for this area,only a test.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 013.invest

Wow, that is "some" test?! Looks like there's some kinks to be worked out??

[OuterBanker]

Cyclone, is this not now the SE Gulf thread? Shouldn't this be locked now to avoid confusion?

[cycloneye]

Thank you OB for the suggestion and is a good one. This thread is locked to allow comments to continue in the SE Gulf thread