SE Gulf / Florida East Coast

[SouthDadeFish]

The suspect "low" by Naples isn't the same low the models are forecasting to form over the next few days. The latest run of the Euro is trying to form a low in the Gulf in about 24-48 hours then move it inland over South/Central FL. This pattern would favor very heavy rainfall over the peninsula. It should be noted that the 12Z GEM also showed a similar set up, but tracks fhe lower inland farther south over FL. From what I have seen, the GFS does not show as divergent of an upper level pattern over the forecast low and therefore does not deepen it nearly as much. Regardless, upper level winds should be too strong to allow the development of anything tropical in nature. The main threat remains heavy rainfall. The GFS is only forecasting widespread areas of 1-2 inches of precipitation while the GEM is forecasting large areas of 3-6 inches of precipitation over the next 72 hours. The 12Z UKMET has a solution kind of like a cross between the Euro and GFS.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, very heavy rainfall totals are definitely possible over my area and the rest of the peninsula for the next 48 -72 hours. Right now, northeast winds are already gusting to near 30 mph at the coast near Mayport and Jax Beach. There was a nor'easter that was experienced here last week, and I picked up nearly 3 inches of rainfall at my locale with convergence bands that set up over Northeast Florida.

I see a potential set up again with the moderate onshore flow here, coupled with a potential hybrid system to form in the Eastern GOM in the next 48 hours, per EURO. I wouldn't be surprised to see some spots in the state to pick up rain amounts of 4 inches + in the coming days.

Currently, a very impressive band of thunderstorms is currently moving through the southern peninsula and I am sure 1-2 inch rain totals are being experienced in areas down there at this time.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Has this setup occurred in recent years?

[Aric Dunn]

radar is interesting.

[Hurricaneman]

radar is interesting.

Looks like a half a ring around a circulation center, but I don't want to say what it looks like a half of

[Evil Jeremy]

Just woke up after pulling an all nighter for finals. The mid level rotation in the Tampa radar surprised the heck our of me. Just came out of nowhere.

[tolakram]

There is a floater up along with the test invest in this area.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[cycloneye]

The 00z TAFB Surface Analysis has the Louisiana surface low dropping SE.

[CDO62]

From Joe Bastardi earlier today....

[SouthDadeFish]

The 00z TAFB Surface Analysis has the Louisiana surface low dropping SE.

This is the low some of the models were deepening over the next few days. Let's see what happens. Wind shear is currently 20-30 knots over the Northern Gulf but quickly increases to the south. The 18Z GFS ramps up the shear to about 35 knots over the Eastern Gulf in 48 hours and 60-70 knots in 60 hours.

[floridasun78]

From Joe Bastardi earlier today....

http://i1190.photobucket.com/albums/z454/c3dave/jb050113_zpsec9bca70.jpg

http://i1190.photobucket.com/albums/z454/c3dave/jb1010513_zpsa267aade.jpg

he alway over doing it

[Evil Jeremy]

00z GFS has the low pressure system moving inland SWFL in around 45 hours. The timeline has definnty sped up since the last 00z run. ECMWF out soon.

00z ECMWF has a closed low over half the state of FL
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP048.gif

[chaser1]

From Joe Bastardi earlier today....

http://i1190.photobucket.com/albums/z454/c3dave/jb050113_zpsec9bca70.jpg

http://i1190.photobucket.com/albums/z454/c3dave/jb1010513_zpsa267aade.jpg

he always over doing it

First Sarah Palin, and now Joe Bastardi? Seems like every-time you turn around, "someone new is going rogue" Nope, I just don't really see the potential near-term impact to Florida. The depicted 1006 broad low over the southern half of Florida, would appear to lack much gradient (with exception to North/Central East Florida coastline). If Joe were on to something, I'd have less concern about the present feature...than I would of later season systems which i'd fear it might be a precursor of....

[Evil Jeremy]

Convection has been firing up around 28N, 88W for around 6 hours now. Could this be where this system might start?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-vis.html

Also 06z GFS continues to quicken the timeline with a closed low entering SWFL in around 36 hours now.

EDIT: Finally at a computer, can take a closer look at things. My (untrained) eyes see some level rotation in the nice cluster of convection I mentioned above, due south of the MS/AL border. Anyone else seeing that, or am I just looking into this too much?

Another edit:
Vorticity 3 hours ago:
Vorticity now:

Looks like something is trying to get going this morning in the NGOM. Vorticity increased noticeably over the past 3 hours in the region of the self-sustaining convection.

[northjaxpro]

Evil Jeremy, there does seem to be a mid level rotation in a convective complex in the GOM about 100-150 miles south of the MS/AL coastline. I did notice that earlier this morning on IR imagery and again on the first visible images a short time ago.

We'll watch that area and see how it evolves as time progresses, if that area can holds together. Wind shear is still the big issue in that area. Still a remote possibility maybe we can get some hybrid system to develop in the next 48 hours or so.

[Alyono]

Not seeing anything that resembles tropical development. Squalls quite disorganized and not trending toward organization. As others have said, too much shear as well.

[northjaxpro]

12Z WPC surface analysis does indeed depict a 1011 mb surface Low south of the MS coast.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the gulf satellite... there is a very large gyrie in the central gulf with multiple vorts around it. where this eventual low develops will determine who gets the most rain. still dont think we get any development. but cant rule out a sup-tropical system completely.

[Evil Jeremy]

12z GFS rolling through, once again showing a faster moving and slightly stronger system than in previous runs. It now shows a closed low starting to move inland in 24 hours and sitting in the middle of SFL in 30 hours.

As for the rotation I spotted earlier, it looks to me like it's moved closer to the coast, around 29.5N/87W. Or maybe I've been looking at the satellite for too long.

[mitchell]

From Joe Bastardi earlier today....

he alway over doing it

Well the term "rogue" is certainly getting overused. I mean I get that there is a spectrum of storm characteristics between purely tropical in nature and purely non tropical/frontal.

Calling the many storms a season that dont neatly fit into one category or another as "rogue" is lazy and/or misleading, IMO.