SE Gulf / Florida East Coast

[wxman57]

Quite strong late-season cold front is about to blast across the Gulf. By tomorrow night, upper level winds of 70-90 kts will extend from Texas across Florida and through the Bahamas. There could be a weak frontal low (or wave), but I wouldn't expect any significant development. No evidence of any weak low off the MS coast in obs past 12Z - pressures up to 1014-1015mb there by 15Z.

[lhpfish]

This is in Boca Raton at the Publix at Federal and 20th street. This was before the 2nd batch came in and there's more on the way.

[img] http://postimg.org/image/tjttkg829/ [/image]

[artist]

This is in Boca Raton at the Publix at Federal and 20th street. This was before the 2nd batch came in and there's more on the way.

[img] http://postimg.org/image/tjttkg829/ [/image]

wow! Thanks for posting this. How are things there now?



welcome and here is the image for you (the last tag on yours should be [/img]

ok, that didn't work either. Don't know what is wrong.

[BlueWater36]

This is in Boca Raton at the Publix at Federal and 20th street. This was before the 2nd batch came in and there's more on the way.

[img] http://postimg.org/image/tjttkg829/ [/image]

Small world! I was just in that publix not too long ago snagging a sandwich for lunch. The parking lot was a mess. I work a few miles down the road and the lower deck of the parking garage at my office building has about 6 inches of standing water. I also received this email from the city of delray beach:

May 2, 2013: The public is advised to use caution due to localized flash flooding from the current rain storms that are being experienced.

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a Flash Flood Warning for Southeastern Palm Beach County effective until 4:00 pm today, Thursday, May 2, 2013. Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are moving across the county, with some areas reporting an estimated eight (8) inches of rain. Additional information is available at http://www.tinyurl.com/FlashFlooding and/or http://www.weather.gov.

[lhpfish]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

My bad on the photo. I forgot to put the actual picture in the URL.

Were you able to view?

Slowed down a bit here now, but they are really starting to fire down around Pompano. Will be heading that way in about an hour and a half.

[jdray]

One hell of a squally mess.
http://www.news4jax.com/weather/nationa ... index.html

The RPM model (right), an in-house model that Channel 4's The Weather Authority considers among the best, brings absurd, almost comical, amounts of rainfall to the same general regions with some areas showing upwards of a foot of rain.

At this time, we are siding with the far more conservative GFS

Here's the RPM projection:


Of course the GFS and QPC show 5-6" of rain through sunday.
Nothing more than a nice rainmaker is what I see.

[artist]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 02 2013

...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COMPLICATED AND STORMY PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW
GULF ALONG 30N94W 25N98W. A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS IS NEAR THE FRONT
FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 94W-95W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
INLAND ACROSS MEXICO FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 97W-101W. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE WEST OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY REACHING UP TO
25 KT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF TAMAULIPAS MEXICO.
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
26N85W. THE LOW IS NOT WELL DEFINED...BUT TWO CLEAR SURFACE
TROUGHS EXTEND FROM THE CENTER BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ONE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTER TO THE SW TOWARDS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA ALONG 23N86W 20N89W. AN AREA OF STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EAST OF THE TROUGH FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
86W-89W. THE SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TOWARDS
THE NW ALONG 28N89W 32N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UP TO 150 NM EAST OF THE AXIS. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST CONTINUING
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG 31N81W TO 27N82W.
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS RECEIVED HEAVY
AMOUNTS OF RAIN EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO FLOODING.
ALOFT...A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. ONE COVERS
THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 85W AND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SURFACE
LOW AND LARGE AREA OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING
OVER FLORIDA MOST OF THE DAY. THE SECOND IS STILL INLAND OVER
CENTRAL TEXAS AND FAR EASTERN MEXICO SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT.
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE EAST AND THE FRONT IN THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL PUSH A GOOD PORTION OF THE
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA TO THE EAST. STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN AS THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... WDAT.shtml?

[cycloneye]

Here is the 00z TAFB Surface Analysis.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop (Java): http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[northjaxpro]

Jacksonville Beach and Saint Augustine received wind gusts to over 40 mph within the past hour. Heavy rains continue and now measured just over 4 inches at my locale and still counting since the event started yesterday morning.

Rain totals across the area range primarily from 4-8 inches in most spots, and still counting, especially southern Jacksonville south to Saint Augustine, where flooding is occuring. The forecast is calling for up to an additional 3 inches of rain across portions of the area through tonight.

[Dean4Storms]

I see a surface Low forming off West Palm Bch.......


http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... &itype=vis

[northjaxpro]

You may be on to something Dean. There does seem to be a circulation in that area, and definitely the winds have picked up here in Jax area within the past few hours. East winds are sustained 25 mph with frequent gusts to 35 mph even here at my locale, which is 13 miles inland from the coast.

[wxman57]

Surface obs suggest a weak low offshore between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral. Jet stream should reach the area in about 24 hrs, producing very high wind shear. Tropical or subtropical development is unlikely. Moisture should track northward into GA and the Carolinas over the next few days.

[vbhoutex]

I see a surface Low forming off West Palm Bch.......


http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... &itype=vis

Next question is-is there something trying to work down to the surface just South of Appalachicola?

[northjaxpro]

The feature south of Appalachicola is part of the weakening upper low which has migrated east-southeast from Louisiana the past 36 hours. That feature will get absorbed by the larger cutoff-low over the Midwest currently in the next 24 hours. I think the weak hybrid off the coast of West Palm Beach currently will be the one to monitor and as wxman57 stated, shear will keep a lid on this feature from doing anything significant fortunately, other than what has already transpired in this area with the flooding and gale-force wind gusts out at the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Looking at visible satellite imagery and Melbourne radar, definitely appears to be a circulation, possibly a hybrid feature, developing about 100 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral.

[SouthDadeFish]

Despite high levels of shear this little sucker continues to look better. Pretty cool little feature.

[northjaxpro]

SouthDadeFish, I agree. The satellite presentation of the feature does look rather well, despite the shear in the region.

[Dean4Storms]

West winds along the coast to the west of what appears to be a Low.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=sipf1

Scroll down and you'll see the abrupt wind direction change earlier this AM.

[tolakram]

Longer live loop, speed up for effect.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=16