Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Anomalies

[cycloneye]

MDR holding steady around +0.5C.

[cycloneye]

Big spike in the past few days in MDR. Let's see if the upward trend continues or it turns steady as it was before this recent spike.

[HurricaneFan]

So has the NAO gone negative as forecasted?If so,how long will it stay negative?

[cycloneye]

So has the NAO gone negative as forecasted?If so,how long will it stay negative?

NAO has been positive for a while and will stay that way for now. This time the trade winds are confined to the subtropical Atlantic and not at the MDR.

GFS ensembles



ECMWF Ensembles

[jinftl]

Game on for South Florida water temps...up to 80 deg in many areas and nowhere to go but up

[gatorcane]

Current SST graphic. You can see some cooler waters left behind by Andrea in the Eastern Gulf. Those should warm up rapidly over the next week or so with air temperatures into the 90s across the Southeastern U.S. and Florida:

[jinftl]

The difference in overall SST in the tropical Atlantic on 6-8-13 vs. 6-8-12 is telling - from east of the Cape Verdes through the Caribbean Sea around Cuba and off the s.e. FL coast through most of the Gulf - the ocean is warmer. Could mean waves developing a few weeks earlier than normal in the Central Atlantic and storms that do form early season would have unsually warm water to tap into to strengthen.

The Gulf is always a bathtub by July - so is the NW Caribbean and up the SE U.S. coast - but seeing hundreds of miles of open ocean so warm is noteworthy. Follow 15N latitude line from Cape Verde to Central America this year vs last.

[TheStormExpert]

I don't see all that much of a difference from those two images. Could you explain better?

[ROCK]

significant difference...notice the darker areas are more abundant this year vs last year. Would like to see a comparison done with 2005 sst's....Will try to pull something together.

[jinftl]

Some spots to reference:

10N 30W - 27C to 28C this year, 26C in 2012 - that's water that was 78F in 2012 that is now 81 or 82F.

15N 60W - 28C to 29C this year, 27C in 2012

25N 90W - 28C+ this year, 27C in 2012

Warmer water - even if 2 deg F equals more availability heat energy for storms to form and feed off of. Thousands of miles of water 2-3 deg F warmer than last year is significant - a storm that may have not intensified with 77 deg water (all other factors equal) could do a lot more intensification in 82 deg water

:uarrow: I don't see all that much of a difference from those two images. Could you explain better?

[JonathanBelles]

The difference in the MDR is enough to possibly kick start the Cape-Verde season, which we may have already seen with 92L

[tolakram]

I don't think SSTs are the big story this year. We had plenty of potential in the MDR last year, but instability was lacking. This year slightly warmer SSTs, which will vary week to week, but most important is average to above average instability.

[SFLcane]

I don't think SSTs are the big story this year. We had plenty of potential in the MDR last year, but instability was lacking. This year slightly warmer SSTs, which will vary week to week, but most important is average to above average instability.

+1

[chaser1]

I don't think SSTs are the big story this year. We had plenty of potential in the MDR last year, but instability was lacking. This year slightly warmer SSTs, which will vary week to week, but most important is average to above average instability.

Agreed, not only has instability has been average to below average last year (and year prior too I think?), but then take into account the shear number of storms that formed last year?! Now, you take a more unstable MDR and things could get interesting. Though more newsworthy than the slightly higher SST's, that factor alone would be like tossing in a few more charcoal briskets, to an already hot BBQ!

Wind shear however, , IF CONSISTENTLY PRESENT through most of the season, would certainly be a huge mitigating factor that could easily cut the number of named storms in half. Certainly would hold down the location and number of some major hurricane developing. Still too early to get a read on that though.

[gatorcane]

Current SST map for the waters around Florida, looking quite warm:

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I don't think SSTs are the big story this year. We had plenty of potential in the MDR last year, but instability was lacking. This year slightly warmer SSTs, which will vary week to week, but most important is average to above average instability.

Agreed, not only has instability has been average to below average last year (and year prior too I think?), but then take into account the shear number of storms that formed last year?! Now, you take a more unstable MDR and things could get interesting. Though more newsworthy than the slightly higher SST's, that factor alone would be like tossing in a few more charcoal briskets, to an already hot BBQ!

Wind shear however, , IF CONSISTENTLY PRESENT through most of the season, would certainly be a huge mitigating factor that could easily cut the number of named storms in half. Certainly would hold down the location and number of some major hurricane developing. Still too early to get a read on that though.

Even reducing the wind shear interval down to 1 knot, which is insane, wind shear has not been much above-average. The MDR has been favorable. The TUTT is slightly stronger than usual, but still not enough to matter.

[ROCK]

safe to say the GOM will only get hotter as we head into July....we are still in June and according to this map waters can support a major if conditions are right.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[gatorcane]

Latest SSTs across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean:

[gatorcane]

Latest anomalies as of July 1st:

[cycloneye]

Well folks, for the first time this year,the MDR sst anomalies fall to negative. Let's see when they rebound again but between the persistent sal and strong high pressure kicking up the trade winds have cause the waters to cool.