Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[OuterBanker]

Well,GFS is dancing around as the 00z run only had a weak TD instead of a Tropical Storm and the 06Z run had a Tropical Storm. And also still no other models are showing it as of Saturday morning so there is a big deal of uncertainty at this time. Let's see how things evolve in the model world in the coming days.

Also, development has moved back to the BOC instead off the Fl coast.

That actually makes more sense. The MJO will be peaking in the BOC at that time. Maybe that's what the GFS is seeing.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The CMC operational run does not show the tropical cyclone like the GFS does. However, its ensembles still show much above-average precipitation in the western Caribbean and Bahamas region.



We have to remember that the GFS is almost always the first to pick up on long-range development. It takes a while for the rest of the models to catch on, and then we've got good consensus. Within a week prior to formation, one or more of the models in agreement will drop the system and then pick it up again right before development. Happens almost every time.

[dexterlabio]

I concur with everything TropicalAnalystwx13 said. This is a very strong MJO well supported by the recent mountain torque event and suspect the models are not handling well yet the progression of it beyond the western Pacific. Monsoon-like areas of convection will likely awaken on either side of Central America later this month. The last of the Canadian highs will settle over the eastern US and set up nice return/moist flow into the carib-southern gulf regions likely reducing shear and various other factors that so far have prevented formation of early season systems.

Recently the GFS ensembles are showing a weaker MJO progressing from Western Pacific to the Americas. Does this recent mountain torque event show a possible weakening of the MJO in the coming weeks? I really have the feeling that this MJO pulse will jumpstart the hurricane season , the only question is how strong it will be and if it's enough to favor cyclonegenesis in the region....

[Alyono]

its May. Doesn't the GFS show this every year? What are the chances of having 2 Memorial Day storms in consecutive seasons?

12Z GFS seems strange. Large May TC taking up 1/2 the Caribbean? really?

[WeatherGuesser]

^^ Being still new here, you'll soon find that some seem to hope everything becomes a Cat 5 wiping out much of the seaboard.

You'll see threads asking which ones will be the 'big ones' or which will be retired. You won't see too many threads asking/hoping about having another relatively quiet season with few (or no) major landfalls.

I've never been able to figure out why, but it continues.

[Hurricane Alexis]

But this thread is about the strong MJO towards the end of the month, not what the GFS shows 2 weeks from now.

[lester]

^^ Being still new here, you'll soon find that some seem to hope everything becomes a Cat 5 wiping out much of the seaboard.

You'll see threads asking which ones will be the 'big ones' or which will be retired. You won't see too many threads asking/hoping about having another relatively quiet season with few (or no) major landfalls.

I've never been able to figure out why, but it continues.

Some people want nothing more than that, it's not just with hurricanes, but tornadoes, snowstorms and other forms of severe weather. We call them people I disagree with.

[WeatherGuesser]

But this thread is about the strong MJO towards the end of the month, not what the GFS shows 2 weeks from now.

Today is the 11th. Add two weeks (14 days) and you get the 25th, which to me is the end of the month.

[Hurricane Alexis]

But this thread is about the strong MJO towards the end of the month, not what the GFS shows 2 weeks from now.

Today is the 11th. Add two weeks (14 days) and you get the 25th, which to me is the end of the month.

I meant that what the GFS shows at the end of each run shouldn't be discussed with too much importance.

[northtxboy]

I don’t think anyone here wishes for harm to come to anyone from storms rather they be hurricanes tornadoes ice storm ect. Most of us have a deep passion for weather and how it works. i myself love cat 5 hurricanes and love to track them. i never wish for one to hit any place I wish they would all stay out to sea but that is not going to be the case for every storm. I think it was wrong for you to say what you did. Hurricanes happen there is nothing anyone can do about it so why not get excited and study these beautiful storms. A forum is for discussion and debate. If it looks like a storm will hit land this is where we can all discuss and debate rather or not it will or will not. I dont find anything wrong with what we do or what we talk about. Now some of us do get a little excited some times and we make guesses that might seem extreme but that’s ok that’s what this forum is for. Discussion and debate. I have not posted in a very long time but your post pissed me off so i thought I would comment.

[ronjon]

I agree north. The forums for weather nerds like us that are fascinated by tropical cyclones. They're gonna happen so why not track them, study them, and maybe be amateur METS sometimes. Now to possible late May development. I've been around long enough to know that the GFS long range tropical cyclone develpment almost aways happens near the beginning of the season - I think it justs means things are going to be favorable for development with the MJO pulse. The fact that this same pulse sparked two tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean may hint at its strength. Just be patient and watch now - I believe the GFS has shown consistent development now for the last 4-5 days of runs. Another week or so and we'll have a much better idea. Climatology does suggest though IF a tropical cyclone is to develop, it'll be in this region.

[tolakram]

This is the Talking Tropics forum where most of us enjoy talking about the tropics. I don't see anyone -removed- and I do not see anyone wishing for a big storm. If you don't like the discussion then don't open the thread.

Thanks.

[beoumont]

I am almost always wishing for a big storm. I am also always hoping for perpetual peace and prosperity.

As far as commenting on the subject of this thread: I don't think development two weeks from any point in time is ever "likely"; except maybe two weeks from August 20th.

[Dean4Storms]

06z Run of GFS is again bullish with Andrea bearing down on the SW Coast of Florida. Way too early to trust this one!

[cycloneye]

Here is JB latest tweet about this.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2min

GFS spinning up TS for Memorial day in w carib. Think this is because its too fast on MJO.. probably will happen, but later ( June)

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is cool because my meteorological research paper for school discusses the MJO.

[Alyono]

GFS starting to back away from development. Seems more reasonable for May.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS starting to back away from development. Seems more reasonable for May.

One run doesn't mean the model is backing away from development. The 12z GFS was likely unreasonable anyways, with no trough over the Eastern Seaboard. It goes against the run's ensemble members and days worth of consensus.

No trough = monsoon trough/cyclone isn't drawn north = no development

[NDG]

Deja vu.
We go through this every May with the GFS of wanting to develop a ghost storm in the southern Caribbean in its long range forecast.
I was one of the ones that was thinking a month or two ago that we may see development in May this season but the atmosphere is not there yet for tropical development, IMO. So June development is more likely to come along with the MJO.

[blp]

Deja vu.
We go through this every May with the GFS of wanting to develop a ghost storm in the southern Caribbean in its long range forecast.
I was one of the ones that was thinking a month or two ago that we may see development in May this season but the atmosphere is not there yet for tropical development, IMO. So June development is more likely to come along with the MJO.

Yes the GFS has a habit of this. The GFS gets very eager this time of the year. I like the Euro this time of year.

I am now questioning the intensity of the MJO pulse since Euro and its ensembles now barely brings the pulse into our neck of the woods.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml