2013 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Shear looks heavy right now.

[cycloneye]

From 10:05 UTC discussion:

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON MAY 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
9000 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 09N82W TO LOW PRES CENTERED NEAR
07N94W 1010 MB TO 10N108W TO 09N116W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO
ITCZ EXTENDING BEYOND 06N140W. NUMEROUS MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW EXCEPT 180 NM NW QUADRANT.

...DISCUSSION...

A HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTION OF AREA SE TO
NEAR 19N108W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOWER PRES IN
THE ITCZ IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES N OF THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
TO 18N W OF 120W...AND SEAS TO 8 FT FROM 10N TO 15N W OF 132W
BASED ON RECENT ALTIMETER PASS.

LATEST SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH SAT HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS
SHOW A LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOVEMENT OF CARIBBEAN WAVE/TROUGH
FEATURE INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON
TROUGH NEAR 07N94W. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WEST ALONG WITH
THE WAVE/TROUGH FEATURE ACROSS THE TROPICAL E PAC THROUGH MID
WEEK AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION TO STRONG CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...GAP WINDS THROUGH THE GULF OF
PAPAGAYO WILL REACH 25 KT EACH MORNING WITH SEAS APPROACHING 8
FT DOWNWIND OF THE GULF. AS THE WAVE/TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD...A
COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL REACH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
WILL INDUCE GAP WINDS THROUGH THE CHIVELA PASS INTO THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC THROUGH TUE. WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL
REACH 25-30 KT LATER TODAY.

[supercane4867]

The 06z GFS develops a depression only after 3 days or so and reach well above TS strength by day 5




The AOI right now should very likely be the first storm of the season

[cycloneye]

Looking good and if it persists then it may be invest 90E very soon. Models continue to show development.

[Hurricane Jed]

Looks healthy enough. Come on Alvin!

[cycloneye]

GEM looks to turn EPAC very active.



GFS also develops this area.

[cycloneye]

We have invest 90E. Go to active storms/invests forum to continue the discussions about this system.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=114939&hilit=&p=2305153#p2305153

[cycloneye]

The First regular Tropical Weather Outlook for the 2013 season and how it starts with a bang. My numbers are 18/10/5.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED MAY 15 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 625 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAVE
BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND IT APPEARS THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE
SEASON...WHICH WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30. LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR
THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE
15...8...AND 4...RESPECTIVELY.

THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2013 IS AS FOLLOWS:

NAME PRONUNCIATION NAME PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALVIN AL- VIN MANUEL MAHN WELL-
BARBARA BAR- BRUH NARDA NAHR- DUH
COSME COS- MAY OCTAVE AHK- TAYV
DALILA DAH LY- LAH PRISCILLA PRIH SIH- LUH
ERICK EHR- IK RAYMOND RAY- MUND
FLOSSIE FLOSS- EE SONIA SOHN- YAH
GIL GIL TICO TEE- KOH
HENRIETTE HEN REE ETT- VELMA VELL- MUH
IVO EYE VOH- WALLIS WAHL- LIS
JULIETTE JEW LEE EHT- XINA ZEE- NAH
KIKO KEE- KO YORK YORK
LORENA LOW RAY- NA ZELDA ZEL- DAH

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...BRIEFLY DESCRIBES
SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ISSUANCE
TIMES OF THIS PRODUCT ARE 5 AM...11 AM...5 PM...AND 11 PM PDT.
AFTER THE CHANGE TO STANDARD TIME IN NOVEMBER...THE ISSUANCE TIMES
ARE 4 AM...10 AM...4 PM...AND 10 PM PST.

A SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED TO PROVIDE
UPDATES...AS NECESSARY...IN BETWEEN THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED
ISSUANCES OF THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED UNDER THE SAME WMO AND AWIPS HEADERS AS THE
REGULAR TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A WIND SPEED PROBABILITY PRODUCT...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS
FOR ALL ONGOING TROPICAL CYCLONES. IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL
ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT
UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF STATEMENT TO INFORM OF
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR TO POST OR CANCEL
WATCHES OR WARNINGS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS USED IN LIEU
OF OR TO PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN
BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADER WTPZ61-65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCUEP1-5.

ALL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TEXT AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS ARE
AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV. NHC IS ALSO ON
FACEBOOK AT http://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/US.NOAA.NATIONA ... CENTER.GOV.
NOTIFICATIONS ARE AVAILABLE VIA TWITTER WHEN SELECT NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS ARE ISSUED. INFORMATION ABOUT OUR EAST
PACIFIC TWITTER FEED IS AVAILABLE AT
http://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/TWITTER.SHTML.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[Yellow Evan]

Are the models still showing stuff after soon to be Alvin?

[cycloneye]

Are the models still showing stuff after soon to be Alvin?

There is a thread about that topic.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114943&p=2305287#p2305287

[Yellow Evan]

Are the models still showing stuff after soon to be Alvin?

There is a thread about that topic.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=114943&p=2305287#p2305287

Yeah, I saw that thread after I posted this, though I would rather just continue on here, but I am no a mod or anything.

Anyway, how far can this season go? Raymond maybe?

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS 27HR


a TS forms right below Panama?

[cycloneye]

The first day of the season brings the first named Tropical Storm. (Alvin) Does anyone has stats of how many times in past seasons a named storm formed on May 15?

[Yellow Evan]

The first day of the season brings the first named Tropical Storm. (Alvin) Does anyone has stats of how many times in past seasons a named storm formed on May 15?

I believe this is a first named TC to from on May 15 (IIRC a TD did form on May 15 in 1996), but I posted something similar on page 1 of Alvin's thread.

[Hurricane Jed]

You're right Yellow Evan. This is a first for the EPAC. I checked through HURDAT and all I found was the TD you mentioned. Went through ATL HURDAT too and found 4/5 storms that formed on June 1st.

[Cyclenall]

GEM looks to turn EPAC very active.

Nice, what I was hoping for last season was 3 named storms before June 1 and 2012 missed the mark, could this season do it? I will admit I'm not as excited right now as I was a year ago but I think there could be some juicy nuggets coming down the line .

The First regular Tropical Weather Outlook for the 2013 season and how it starts with a bang.

I caught a line missing in the first TWO, the one that says, "Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation in not expected." Its rare that its missing .

Anyway, how far can this season go? Raymond maybe?

Just to Cosme...jk. I think it will be an average season overall with more of it happening eariler like last season and 2010. I don't have numbers yet.

a TS forms right below Panama?

I know that's probably not what it shows, but I pray it happens...always wanted to see something form that far east. Imagine the geographical real estate of hot SST's it could take advantage of...yum.

[Yellow Evan]

GEM looks to turn EPAC very active.

Nice, what I was hoping for last season was 3 named storms before June 1 and 2012 missed the mark, could this season do it? I will admit I'm not as excited right now as I was a year ago but I think there could be some juicy nuggets coming down the line .

3 named storms in May has never happened IIRC.

Anyway, how far can this season go? Raymond maybe?

Just to Cosme...jk. I think it will be an average season overall with more of it happening eariler like last season and 2010. I don't have numbers yet.

a TS forms right below Panama?

I know that's probably not what it shows, but I pray it happens...always wanted to see something form that far east. Imagine the geographical real estate of hot SST's it could take advantage of...yum.[/quote]

[Hurricane Jed]

A recap so far of the season. Alvin was a dud and he went thud.

[HurricaneRyan]

Alvin was no chipmunk.

[supercane4867]

12Z GFS



THE EYE