ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)

[cycloneye]

I wish the MJO would fuel an El Nino this summer. But looking at the latest sst's. Looks more like La Nina coming. I hope somehow El Nino forms. But if I was betting. I'd say Neutral all summer.

I think as time progresses La Nina becomes less and less likely. Nina events tends to come early and fast which then peaks during the fall. It's true the surface SST's are cool over the eastern Nino regions but they are not supported well enough underneath for a full blown Nina. For the past 6 months or so the global wind oscillation hardly spent any time in the -AAM phase (sign of La Nina patterns) and so we saw the gradual rise from the -0.6c in early January, but still holding neutral.

I'm curious to see what the PDO comes out as for April.

Do you have a link to the PDO graphics?

[Ntxw]

Do you have a link to the PDO graphics?

I get all my PDO information from JISAO Washington's site. I believe NOAA references this as well as their source. Top left has all the links to everything PDO! Enjoy

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

[SoupBone]

Latest MJO wave really means business. In tandem the latest +AAM induced MT is being fueled strongly by the Himalayas and Rockies, both big players in the northern hemisphere. Aside from possibly warming of the Pacific this month, it will also cause 'monsoon' like regions of the tropics such as epac and atl that cycloneye has mentioned which could be conducive for early season cyclone developments.

Could it fuel a possible El-Nino this summer?

As for the latest Model prediction consensus, was it released before the MJO arrived to the Pacific?

The next batch of the consensus will be released around Mid May so it will have MJO imput.

You seem to stop short of suggesting an El Nino event. What is your personal opinion? Do you think we stay neutral or is it possible to have El Nino affect us this season?

[dexterlabio]

If ever this MJO wave could warm up the Pacific and trigger EN, it could only be at most a weak EN...similar to the 2004 event..

A neutral condition for the rest of the year makes sense, but whether it be a warm or cold neutral is the question.

[Kingarabian]

Australian Update:

ENSO neutral; a negative IOD slightly favoured

Issued on Tuesday 7 May 2013 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

The tropical Pacific has remained in a neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) state since mid 2012. All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently well within neutral values. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology favour an ENSO-neutral state persisting into the southern hemisphere winter.

Following record high ocean temperatures around Australia during the summer, oceans have remained warmer than average, with January to April 2013 the warmest such period on record. Warm ocean surface temperatures around the continent may enhance local rainfall under favourable conditions.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index is currently neutral. Model outlooks of the IOD are mixed, with three of the five models favouring the development of a negative IOD during the southern hemisphere winter-spring period. Overall, a negative IOD event is slightly favoured over neutral conditions. A negative IOD during winter-spring increases the chances of above normal rainfall over southern Australia.

[cycloneye]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
9 May 2013

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active


Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored into the late Northern Hemisphere summer 2013.

During April 2013, ENSO-neutral continued, with near-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) observed across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, and below average SSTs confined to the far eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The Niño indices were near zero throughout the month, except for the Niño1+2 region which was between -1.2oC and -0.5oC (Fig. 2). The oceanic heat content (average temperature in the upper 300m of the ocean) remained near average during April (Fig. 3), reflecting near-average subsurface temperatures at depth across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 4). The tropical low-level easterly winds remained slightly enhanced over the western half of the Pacific basin, and anomalous upper-level westerly winds prevailed across much of the equatorial Pacific. Tropical convection was enhanced over Indonesia and the western Pacific and suppressed over the central Pacific (Fig. 5). Collectively, these conditions indicate the continuation of ENSO-neutral.

Most models forecast Niño-3.4 SSTs to remain ENSO-neutral into the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 6), with dynamical models tending to predict warmer conditions (-0.3oC to 0.4oC) than the statistical models (-0.7oC to 0oC). There is still low confidence in the forecasts for the latter half of the year, partly because of the so-called “spring barrier,” which historically leads to lower model skill for forecasts made between March and May. Forecast confidence will increase over the next few months. The current forecast indicates that ENSO-neutral will likely continue into the second half of the Northern Hemisphere summer 2013 (see CPC/IRI consensus forecast).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... odisc.html

[cycloneye]

Neutral will be the dominant condition thru the next few months.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2

[Ntxw]

Currently looking at TAO/Triton buoy data one can clearly see that the latest kelvin wave (MJO related) is in the down-welling phase. Warm western Pacific waters is being pushed down and east up the thermocline. The central cool regions will likely surface as the MJO heads through Indonesia (cooling phases) for the next week to week and a half. SOI has followed nicely positive the past few days. After that how much of the warm pool then emerges once the MJO reaches the up-welling phase in the eastern Pacific is a good question to ask.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnection ... dyear=2013

[cycloneye]

Climate Prediction Center 5/13/13 update

Nino 3.4 goes down from 0.0C last week to -0.1C this week.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf

[Ntxw]

Latest PDO update for April came in at -0.16 which is a rise from the -0.63 in March. Most of this change was a result of the northeast Pacific warming off the coast of NA. Will May be the first +PDO value since 2010? Not out of reach based on latest SST's (northern hemisphere).

[cycloneye]

Latest PDO update for April came in at -0.16 which is a rise from the -0.63 in March. Most of this change was a result of the northeast Pacific warming off the coast of NA. Will May be the first +PDO value since 2010? Not out of reach based on latest SST's (northern hemisphere).

http://i44.tinypic.com/1444f1z.png

If the PDO goes positive,what effect it may have on the actual Neutral condition of ENSO?

[Ntxw]

If the PDO goes positive,what effect it may have on the actual Neutral condition of ENSO?

I'm not certain it will effect much on ENSO neutral besides likely keeping it above 0c. It does however effect the weather pattern over North America as +PDO neutral favors warmer west and cooler east. Less likely of a SE ridge as high pressure off the west coast buckles a trough in the eastern CONUS. With this in mind, I'm wondering if this will increase the chance that systems forming in the Caribbean or gulf heads for the US coast into the trough/weakness as compared to recent years that favored Central America.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Latest PDO update for April came in at -0.16 which is a rise from the -0.63 in March. Most of this change was a result of the northeast Pacific warming off the coast of NA. Will May be the first +PDO value since 2010? Not out of reach based on latest SST's (northern hemisphere).

It's not expected to last long. The warming of the PDO is a result of a southerly-displaced ridge of high pressure, with low pressure(s) above that. The forecast is for high pressure to return by next week which should result in a much more -PDO pattern.

[Ntxw]

It's not expected to last long. The warming of the PDO is a result of a southerly-displaced ridge of high pressure, with low pressure(s) above that. The forecast is for high pressure to return by next week which should result in a much more -PDO pattern.

The PDO is a long term signal, even longer than ENSO. You are correct the configuration will shift weekly but long range guidance suggest the horseshoe of warmth in the NE Pacific (+PDO like) off the coast of NA to generally persist much of this year as has been going on since January with the favored +AAM on and off. If this was not the case we would have a full fledged Nina coming on by now.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... e3Sea.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .anim.html

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's not expected to last long. The warming of the PDO is a result of a southerly-displaced ridge of high pressure, with low pressure(s) above that. The forecast is for high pressure to return by next week which should result in a much more -PDO pattern.

The PDO is a long term signal, even longer than ENSO. You are correct the configuration will shift weekly but long range guidance suggest the horseshoe of warmth in the NE Pacific (+PDO like) off the coast of NA to generally persist much of this year as has been going on since January with the favored +AAM on and off. If this was not the case we would have a full fledged Nina coming on by now.

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product ... e3Sea.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/s ... .anim.html

I wouldn't say it's a result of the +AAM. If this were the case, the very warm anomalies south of Alaska – which mark the expansive ridge associated with a -PDO – would not be in place. I'd bet on the horseshoe-shaped water not being as cool as one would believe it should be due to a farther east-displaced ridge like we've seen all winter and spring, which also happens to be really bad for the USA if it persists (landfalls).

[Ntxw]

[quote="TropicalAnalystwx13"]which also happens to be really bad for the USA if it persists (landfalls).

Can't argue there, that was one of the things I've been trying to connect as the ridging underneath Alaska downstream doesn't protect the SE U.S. as a typical cold PDO would.

[SoupBone]

I'd bet on the horseshoe-shaped water not being as cool as one would believe it should be due to a farther east-displaced ridge like we've seen all winter and spring, which also happens to be really bad for the USA if it persists (landfalls).

What particular areas of the U.S. did you have in mind? Gulf Coast, East Coast, Texas Coast (I know this is part of the Gulf Coast, but it's so big it nearly deserves its own designation)?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I'd bet on the horseshoe-shaped water not being as cool as one would believe it should be due to a farther east-displaced ridge like we've seen all winter and spring, which also happens to be really bad for the USA if it persists (landfalls).

What particular areas of the U.S. did you have in mind? Gulf Coast, East Coast, Texas Coast (I know this is part of the Gulf Coast, but it's so big it nearly deserves its own designation)?

The East Coast in particular, though I'm also a little concerned about the eastern Gulf Coast. The seasonal model forecasts are for expansive ridging across southern and eastern Canada during the peak of the season, with minor troughing in the central USA extending ever so slightly into the East. This puts anyone on the East Coast at play, especially Florida. Cyclones that develop or get pretty far south initially may get pulled north into whatever trough is positioned across the country at the time. (Ivan/Dennis).

[cycloneye]

The May ECMWF forecast is all over the spectrum.

[cycloneye]

The Mid-May update of the ENSO models continue to be flat on dead Neutral thru the end of 2013 going to the start of 2014.



http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/s ... 2&userID=2