2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[Ntxw]

No widespread tornado outbreak looks imminent the rest of April. Longer range guidance is not very excited about early May either at this time. In terms of the 3 year average count (still preliminary at 43 through the 18th) this will likely end up one of the quietest Aprils we have seen in awhile, April is typically the most active month regarding number of tornadoes. Last year was 206 and 2011 was 758.

[Ntxw]

Posted in the Texas thread but I'll go ahead and add here too. CFSv2 is forecasting a cool May for much of the eastern conus especially tornado alley. Will this put a lid on the last of the core months for tornado season (March-May)?

[CrazyC83]

At this rate June or even July could be the busiest month...

[vbhoutex]

At this rate June or even July could be the busiest month...

If there is a chase season this year. Usually April and May are Texas' month and we have had some in the panhandle and N TX, but SE TX has been very quiet. I do have to admit a large limb did come down a few weeks ago during a storm here in Houston, but overall it has been quiet.

[CrazyC83]

At this rate June or even July could be the busiest month...

If there is a chase season this year. Usually April and May are Texas' month and we have had some in the panhandle and N TX, but SE TX has been very quiet. I do have to admit a large limb did come down a few weeks ago during a storm here in Houston, but overall it has been quiet.

This setup actually might have the making for an active summer season though. If the cold air stays in place, eventually the Gulf will warm up to summer levels. That cold air might make for a nightmare in clashes once we get into the late spring and early summer where cold air left behind runs into the summertime moisture.

The downside is that shear might not be too plentiful, but those fronts will still have some to work with, and will enter extremely high instability values...

[Ntxw]

This setup actually might have the making for an active summer season though. If the cold air stays in place, eventually the Gulf will warm up to summer levels. That cold air might make for a nightmare in clashes once we get into the late spring and early summer where cold air left behind runs into the summertime moisture.

The downside is that shear might not be too plentiful, but those fronts will still have some to work with, and will enter extremely high instability values...

This is always a possibility but I believe it's a slim chance at this point. By summer no matter what kind of cold front the jet stream has retreated far to the north to provide upper wind energy for outbreaks. Still possible in the northern plains but they are nothing compared to the monster outbreak down south in April and May. Ridging becomes dominant in both the southeast and southwest. June and July are QLCS time for the midwest and east. So in short it's not so much the air masses but the 500mb pattern is just so different, with ridging becoming the dominant feature vs digging troughs.

[Ntxw]

If one is looking for severe weather activity there is a little hope. Over in the ENSO thread I made note the renewed MJO wave that will progress slowly over the IO into the Pacific. This is the forcing needed to maybe overcome the appalling weather pattern over North America for outbreaks. IF the wave pushes through the favorable phases (2-3) then we can get a tropics-induce trough to dig into the west and kick out to the plains. This would be around the second week of May, it is a big if and still uncertain if it can overcome the persistent cool pattern.

[blizznd]

Had our first thunderstorm of the season last night in Grand Forks ND prior to 5 am Tuesday.... shook the house. House nearby struck by lightning with some minor damage. WFO Duluth issued their first severe thunderstorm warning at 5 am Tuesday. And I saw that there were large hail reports near Weyburn Sask as well....

Quite a powerful upper low and surface going through Sask into southern Manitoba.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Unless we get one in the next 7 hours, 2013 will go down as the first year since 1993 to not feature a high risk of severe weather prior to May 1.

[Cyclenall]

Unless we get one in the next 7 hours, 2013 will go down as the first year since 1993 to not feature a high risk of severe weather prior to May 1.

What an embarrassment, and here I was hoping for some action back last January! It appears 2011 sucked all the action from the proceeding years (Equilibrium again, its everywhere I tell you) and now we're left with this. All the largest and most "insane" outbreaks typically occur in March and April so there is no hope for any of that I see. I thought May typically had the highest number of 'nadoes but I guess maybe not anymore. Usually they aren't as strong (per experience). I'm starting to worry there will be no high risk this year at all which would be really a sore experience. I'm starting to think my attention should be concentrated on my home turf because I notice this trend of the most severe years for me landing on non-severe years for the US (1985?, 1996?, 2000, 2009). 2000 and 2009 were bad weather years in general (nothing much happened). I read that 2000 had no High Risk days in the US so this year would be the first year since 2000 to not have a high risk of severe weather prior to May 1.

If one is looking for severe weather activity there is a little hope. Over in the ENSO thread I made note the renewed MJO wave that will progress slowly over the IO into the Pacific. This is the forcing needed to maybe overcome the appalling weather pattern over North America for outbreaks. IF the wave pushes through the favorable phases (2-3) then we can get a tropics-induce trough to dig into the west and kick out to the plains. This would be around the second week of May, it is a big if and still uncertain if it can overcome the persistent cool pattern.

I agree, its appalling alright. I think something will happen but my only guess is in mid-May like everyone else is thinking.

This setup actually might have the making for an active summer season though. If the cold air stays in place, eventually the Gulf will warm up to summer levels. That cold air might make for a nightmare in clashes once we get into the late spring and early summer where cold air left behind runs into the summertime moisture.

The downside is that shear might not be too plentiful, but those fronts will still have some to work with, and will enter extremely high instability values...

I don't think it will mean anything for the US, for example research how many tornado outbreaks there has been in the US during summer...yeah almost nothing. How many EF5 or F5's during summer in the US? 0 that I know of. It would all be in Canada and the Great Lakes region which would be great for my severe season (lacking last year). Basically what you posted is what causes increased severe for southern Ontario and beyond which I'm getting the idea will be higher.

[Ntxw]

Latest forecast from the MJO continues to show a better defined wave propagating through the IO and Indonesia perhaps eventually into the Pacific. The IO phases is favorable for severe weather activity (particularly the southeast of late) so we may begin to see better systems come out of the pattern in the mid range.

[Ntxw]

It appears that even with the MJO in favorable phases still is not enough. These gulf clearing fronts and cutoff lows over the CONUS is just too much. Still no outbreaks in the foreseeable future for chasers as May is almost halfway done. As crazy as it may seem but we could outdo the quiet season that was last year.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2012 was dominated with ridging and a jet stream well north into Canada. 2013 has been dominated by cooler air. Every day that appeared to be a major outbreak day has ended up busting because the main upper-air forcing has remained on the backside of the cold front, providing power to these snowstorms over the past few months. Tornado activity is already the lowest in over half a century and improvement does not seem to be coming anytime soon.

[cycloneye]

Looks like things may heat up by next weekend.

...DISCUSSION...
FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE U.S. FOR LATE THIS WEEK /FRI. THROUGH SUN. MAY
17-19/...AS A WRN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSES EWD INTO THE PLAINS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO THE EJECTION OF
THIS FEATURE...WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS GRADUALLY
INCREASING WITH TIME. STILL...A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR CENTRAL U.S.
SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WITH CURRENT
INDICATIONS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT MAY EXIST BEGINNING DAY 6 /SAT.
5-18/. WHILE THE GFS HINTS AT SOME POTENTIAL FOR DAY 5/FRIDAY --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS VICINITY...THE SLOWER ECMWF
MAINTAINS RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS DAY 5. THUS...FOCUS THIS
FORECAST WILL BE ON DAY 6...WITH THE ZONE OF OVERLAP OF THE TWO
MODEL SOLUTIONS EXISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. WITH
STRONG INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND SHEAR LIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG
WITH SOME TORNADO RISK.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE POTENTIAL WOULD LIKELY PERSIST -- THOUGH FARTHER E
-- FOR DAY 7/SUNDAY...BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS
INCREASING AND WITH LIKELIHOOD FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DAY 6
INFLUENCING DAY 7 CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...WILL REFRAIN ATTM FROM ANY
AREAL ISSUANCE BEYOND DAY 6.

[cycloneye]

Looks like finally a severe event will occur next week after being very quiet so far this month.



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A SEVERAL DAY EPISODE OF FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS
LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING DAY 4 /SAT. 5-18/...AND
LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6 /MON. 5-20/.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD BEGINS AFFECTING THE PLAINS DAY 4. THE TROUGH IS THEN
PROGGED TO ENTER THE PLAINS DAY 5...AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED
LOW DAY 6 AS A SECONDARY SPEED MAX ROTATES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE PLAINS.

AS THE TROUGH EVOLVES...A STRENGTHENING SURFACE SYSTEM IS LIKEWISE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...LIKELY FOCUSING DAILY
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD STORMS. WHILE CAPPING WILL LIKELY BE AN
ISSUE -- LIMITING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG SRN REACHES OF THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM...EXPECT THAT STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL
PERMIT RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTRY FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW.

THE GREATEST THREAT DAY 4 WILL LIKELY RESIDE FROM THE DAKOTAS SWD
INTO NRN KS...AS VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTE TO STRONG
DESTABILIZATION AND THE ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE MAIN THREATS DAY 4.

DAY 5...STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS AGAIN FORECAST WHICH -- COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR SPREADING FARTHER E...SUGGESTS THAT THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD EXTEND
FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS/MO/OK AND VICINITY.

ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT DAY 6 MAY BE THE DAY OF HIGHEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL...AS A REINFORCING MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX SHIFTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. THE MAIN AXIS OF SEVERE WEATHER
APPEARS LIKELY TO EXTEND FROM THE IA/IL AREA SWWD ACROSS MO INTO
PARTS OF KS/OK/AR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

THREAT MAY CONTINUE DAY 7...A BIT FARTHER E THAN DAY 6...BUT MORE
UNCERTAINTY AND HINTS OF SOMEWHAT DECREASED SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE
EVIDENT ATTM. THUS...NO OUTLOOK AREAS WILL BE ISSUED BEYOND DAY 6
ATTM.

..GOSS.. 05/15/2013

[cycloneye]

Video of Texas Tornado of May 15.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... u3UOqYglkQ

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2013 hasn't been an active tornado season. But on certain days it has produced bad tornadoes. Today is no different.

1 fatality at least, 13 injuries, homes flattened.

This was an EF4 or EF5. No doubt.

It was over a mile wide.

[cycloneye]

Damage in Granbury,Texas.

[EF-5bigj]

Violent tornado Yeah the weather channel confirmed two death's it makes me more concerned about the setup this weekend.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]