Texas Winter 2013-2014

[Texas Snowman]

A thread on NEXT winter in May?

Well, why not?

After all, more snow in England today. More record cold in Alaska again. And Joe Bastardi already talking about the winter of 2013-2014.

@BigJoeBastardi: CFSV2 500 mb for December already hinting at one heck of fast start to winter with blocking locking and rocking pic.twitter.com/CtWKLuKlYK

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 81/photo/1

So here you go folks, the 2013-2014 Texas Winter thread.

May the odds of Texas snow, ice, and cold be in your favor!

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

A thread on NEXT winter in May?

I don't even have all my plants potted up yet and you are dreaming about that horrible white stuff already????

[PTrackerLA]

I know the same applies for Texas but if the weather pattern we saw from late February - early May had materialized during winter it would have been brutal. No complaints about this spring though it's been extremely pleasant! We have yet to have a day above 85 degrees here.

[wxman57]

Glad we can put this thread to bed. Time to enjoy the best season of the year!

[Portastorm]

Glad we can put this thread to bed. Time to enjoy the best season of the year!

Yeah, I'm thinking you (wxman57) of all people gotta be happy about these mid 90s temperatures!

Meanwhile, how cool is it (no pun intended) that someone started this thread already! Here's to the Texas Winter of 2013-14 ... may be it full of bitter cold and snow/sleet for all of us.

[Tireman4]

Amen. To all you Summer lovers, it is in the upper 80's to low 90's for the foreseeable future. Enjoy it. We cool weather lovers will hibernate until October....

[vbhoutex]

Amen. To all you Summer lovers, it is in the upper 80's to low 90's for the foreseeable future. Enjoy it. We cool weather lovers will hibernate until October....

No you won't! You'll complain and moan and sweat and move over to the tropical forums.

[Tireman4]

Amen. To all you Summer lovers, it is in the upper 80's to low 90's for the foreseeable future. Enjoy it. We cool weather lovers will hibernate until October....

No you won't! You'll complain and moan and sweat and move over to the tropical forums.

Ahh you know me well young grasshopper...yes...yes I will..!!! I hated today thank you very much. Too hot..

[Ntxw]

Ah winter, never too early and ever too late! We haunt wxman57 of it in all seasons! Looks like another neutral coming, better start putting together those 1989 analogs!!!

[wxman57]

Didn't realize you were talking about NEXT winter. I think we need a summer heat thread...

[cycloneye]

Didn't realize you were talking about NEXT winter. I think we need a summer heat thread...

Like this one on 2012.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=112834&start=0

[Ptarmigan]

Didn't realize you were talking about NEXT winter. I think we need a summer heat thread...

We can wish for cold winter.

[Portastorm]

Because today (6/16) I am celebrating my birthday AND Father's Day, I'm going to indulge my passion for winter weather and share this preliminary forecast for this coming winter with y'all!

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2013/06/preliminary-2013-2014-winter-forecast.html

I have no idea how accurate this guy is but he throws around a lot of terminology and appears to know what he's talking about. So I'll lift my frozen margarita and toast this forecast in Wxman57's honor.

[Texas Snowman]

Be still my little heart...

@BigJoeBastardi: "US Computer model for winter showing new norm: colder, because its warmer, brutal US winter."

[Tireman4]

Woo HOo. Come on Winter.

[Portastorm]

What a beautiful image! Bring it, baby ... bring the cold!!

[vbhoutex]

Could get interesting IF it verifies. We can always hope.

[Ntxw]

I have to be honest and say that I truly have no idea what's going to happen this winter. There is no La Nina or El Nino and we are in another neutral. No analog year right now really sticks out.

I will say this though, these "cold/cool" intrusions that have come since February have challenged records from early in the 20th century during the staple cold times of 1910s and 1920s. Take the mid 70s for daytime highs today in DFW (JULY) that's something we're just not used to seeing at all in modern times. Every month since Feb has featured a period of unusual and rare patterns for record or near record breaking lows in many areas of Texas. I have a hunch it's going to continue in the fall and maybe winter.

[Ntxw]

I've decided to put together years that represents neutral since 1950 and highlighted blue the years that were cold neutral less than 0C (where SST's currently are at) for DJF using ONI. Perhaps they can give some insight on what patterns those years favored.

Neutral Years
___________
1952-53
1959-60
1960-61
1961-62
1962-63
1966-67
1967-68
1978-79
1980-81
1981-82
1985-86
1989-90
1990-91
1992-93
1994-95
1996-97
2001-02
2003-04
2012-13

This is what those years looked like for temps. To save space the cold neutrals pretty much mimic this map as well.




Note of caution: This list is dominated by the 60s and 80s which were cold decades. This is using a base period of 1981-2010 (if used during the set those years were in it would look a bit warmer). Also last year as you see is on the list but was overall warm-favored in the southern and central plains. This list should only be used as a starting point to pick out analog years which we should be able to fine tune as we head into the fall.

[Portastorm]

A lot of "food for thought" there, Ntxw. In looking a second consecutive ENSO neutral winters following a Nina period, I see 1990-91. Of course we know there's a lot more at stake than simply ENSO values. But the good news is that the days are getting shorter and, as you mentioned, the sun will be setting sooner in the Arctic!