Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

The difference between a wet MJO and Dry MJO is if this wave develops in a wet or normal MJO we could have a 1995 Allison situation while if its a dry MJO it could be like Debby last year but thats if something develops

[Siker]

00z GEM (CMC)

[boca]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?mode ... ip_p24.gif

Interesting fantasy storm if it happens. At 312 hrs.

[Hurricaneman]

The 6zGFS seems to form something next to Belieze at hr 264 and pull it into the Yucatan and stall it in the Gulf similar to Debby last year.

If the 12zGFS shows a storm too then we may have a trend towards a development around the first week of June, but we have to wait and see if the Euro has it in the next few days

[NDG]

I am going to bite on the GFS and GEM's bait this time around, the time frame that the GFS is now showing, around June 1st, on development has climatology and the on coming MJO (as forecasted by the GFS ensembles) on its side.
The GFS and ECMWF's ensembles also show lower than average heights in the western Caribbean/SE GOM.

[northjaxpro]

I will wait on to see if the EURO joins the trend of the other models regarding possible development around the first week of June.

[wxman57]

I don't buy it for a second. When the development gets within a week I'll consider the possibility.

[SFLcane]

I don't buy it for a second. When the development gets within a week I'll consider the possibility.

Was about to post something similar wxman not much skill there 200+hrs out.

Guess i better head to homedepot now

[somethingfunny]

I think it's a safe bet that it will be rainy in Florida over the next few weeks. I mean, it is Florida. =P

On a more serious bent, those pressures seem awfully low to me. I'd wager there's going to be a big broad trough of low pressure, but closing off...I don't know. Let's get some real model consistency going. More often than not, these early season model depictions in the Western Caribbean end up being EPAC systems, but this one seems to follow an Alma/Arthur-type track northward across Central America - if it develops.

[SFLcane]

I think it's a safe bet that it will be rainy in Florida over the next few weeks. I mean, it is Florida. =POn a more serious bent, those pressures seem awfully low to me. I'd wager there's going to be a big broad trough of low pressure, but closing off...I don't know. Let's get some real model consistency going. More often than not, these early season model depictions in the Western Caribbean end up being EPAC systems, but this one seems to follow an Alma/Arthur-type track northward across Central America - if it develops.

Thats correct sfl rainy season is about kick into full gear next week with a deep moisture surge heading north from the carib.

[cycloneye]

The Tropical Wave approaching the Southern Windward Islands may be the culprit to any TC development in Western Caribbean down the road as it adds energy in the area when it combines with the Monsoon Trough. As always time will tell what will occur.

[floridasun78]

more ghost storm but their saying more rain south fl by wed in 20 to 30% not much higher if models are right it be 70 to 80% by thur into long weekend most year it rain

[Siker]

The 12z CMC doesn't have the same development in the Caribbean. Instead it brings two separate lows. One moves off the coast of Florida at 144 hours and lingers off the Carolinas, then a second one gets pulled from the Western Caribbean. The GFS has a 1003mb at 288 hours between the Yucatan and Cuba.
186h CMC

240h CMC

288h GFS

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,look at the model that hasn't shown anything in the Caribbean until this 12z run,the ECMWF. But it would be much better for it to continue to show it in less timeframe and to not drop it on the next 00z run.But at least is a start.

[floridasun78]

let see how Caribbean look on wed

[Alyono]

wouldnt trust the ECMWF for genesis in the deep tropics. It failed big time with Mahasen

[Aric Dunn]

anyone else notice the 12z euro.. briging energy out of the carrib in 96 hour and looks to develop a weak area east of florida then it opens up but gets left behind..

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTRO ... floop.html

[SFLcane]

wouldnt trust the ECMWF for genesis in the deep tropics. It failed big time with Mahasen

It was dead on with predicting no significant intensification with first tc in epac.

[bamajammer4eva]

WSFA/Channel 12 says its possible. Surprised to see any chance for anything in the Gulf in June especially with the water temp still only @ 76. I would expect something in the Caribbean maybe.


Water temp from wtvy4 Dothan
http://www.wtvy.com/weather

Blog post from WSFA12 Montgomery
http://montgomery.raycomweather.com/

Our friend the GFS is again flirting with the idea of a little tropical mischief sometime around the official start of the season (June 1).



That little Gulf disturbance has been popping in and out of the long range GFS runs for days now...it will be interesting to see if something tries to kick up as we welcome the Atlantic Hurricane season. Something to watch for.

[blp]

I will say that in this basin the GFS has looked like the old GFS models of years past developing one phantom after another so the upgrades did not fix that. We will need to see if it shows improvement as the season moves along.