2013 Steering Pattern / Early indicators

[blp]

Still major differences in the MJO forecasts between the euro and GFS. Who will be right?

Euro
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml

GFS
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

[Hurricaneman]

Still major differences in the MJO forecasts between the euro and GFS. Who will be right?

Euro
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ecmf.shtml

GFS
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... egfs.shtml

going off of this I really can't say if the MJO will cross into the atlantic. Right now I think taking a blend of the 2 is the way to go, it gets to phase 1 and crosses back to the Indian Ocean but thats just my opinion I could be wrong

[cycloneye]

I go also with the blend.The signal has been weaker than anticipated before the two cyclones developed in the Indian Ocean.

[blp]

I think today and tomorrow are important days for the MJO forecast. According to today's MJO forecasts the pulse is reaching the point where the GFS and Euro diverge significantly in the next few days. From today forward, GFS continues into Regions 1&8 while the ECMWF briefly crosses region 1 while heading towards into regions 2&3. This will have an impact on the W. Carribean activity since the GFS has continued to be development happy while the ECMWF has not shown much of anything. Let's see who is right.

Today's GFS


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Today's ECMWF


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at the convection, it looks to be following the GFS depiction of the MJO outlook so far but it could end up a hybrid of both models

[NDG]

I think today and tomorrow are important days for the MJO forecast. According to today's MJO forecasts the pulse is reaching the point where the GFS and Euro diverge significantly in the next few days. From today forward, GFS continues into Regions 1&8 while the ECMWF briefly crosses region 1 while heading towards into regions 2&3. This will have an impact on the W. Carribean activity since the GFS has continued to be development happy while the ECMWF has not shown much of anything. Let's see who is right.

Today's GFS


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Today's ECMWF


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Is very simple, just look at the forecast from the ECMWF just a few days ago, it busted in that it was showing the current MJO to restart in the Indian Ocean.

GFS and ECMWF are different on the forecast of the MJO progression. GFS goes into the Atlantic basin while ECMWF restarts in the Indian Ocean. The battle of the titans rages on.

GFS



ECMWF

[Hurricaneman]

The tropical atlantic is well above normal instability, even with late July levels which looks like it could be foreboding of what the MDR could produce in a couple of months

[boca]

The tropical atlantic is well above normal instability, even with late July levels which looks like it could be foreboding of what the MDR could produce in a couple of months

I wonder if thats the same as vertical instability because their was talk in another thread about it being below average thefew years

[Hurricaneman]

The tropical atlantic is well above normal instability, even with late July levels which looks like it could be foreboding of what the MDR could produce in a couple of months

I wonder if thats the same as vertical instability because their was talk in another thread about it being below average thefew years

it is and that seems to be a change from the last 2 years

[HurricaneFan]

The tropical atlantic is well above normal instability, even with late July levels which looks like it could be foreboding of what the MDR could produce in a couple of months

I wonder if thats the same as vertical instability because their was talk in another thread about it being below average thefew years

it is and that seems to be a change from the last 2 years

What caused this sudden change?And is it expected to last through the Hurricane Season?

[boca]

Thats a good question of what caused the change,could it be less sal,more moisture content in the air.

[cycloneye]

Thats a good question of what caused the change,could it be less sal,more moisture content in the air.

The NAO has been negative for a few months and only recently went positive but the difference this year is the trade winds are stronger in the subtropics area instead of the MDR and that is why no big sal outbreaks have occurred so far.

[falcon]

I don't usually post because my lack of English language skills, but here I go anyway...

The tropical atlantic is well above normal instability, even with late July levels which looks like it could be foreboding of what the MDR could produce in a couple of months

Let me illustrate this

[cycloneye]

Here is the Caribbean Vertical Instability data and is also above normal.

[Hurricaneman]

If the vertical instability is a trend, there's going to be major problems on the US coast as there is more potential for higher end hurricanes, and shear seems to be dropping in the atlantic which is another bad sign

[cycloneye]

If the vertical instability is a trend, there's going to be major problems on the US coast as there is more potential for higher end hurricanes, and shear seems to be dropping in the atlantic which is another bad sign

If this GFS forecast of low shear pans out,then this years CV season would be very active. A caviat is this is long range so it can change many times.

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the Bermuda high setup it looks like its farther north than last years where alot of systems went into the Caribbean and Central America as a whole which makes landfalls in Florida from the east and North Carolina more probable

[cycloneye]

The GOM has warmed a lot in the past few days. Let's see if this warming trend continues down the road as normally it does as Summer arrives.



http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean.html

[Decomdoug]

As the Bermuda High sits today, it appears that systems would steer in the direction of Florida and the GOM.


http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif

[Hurricaneman]

Its a very similar setup to 2004 in terms of the Bermuda high position and strength from what I can see, it could change but it looks like the summer pattern is setting in