Discussion (May 18-19-20-21) Moore Tornado EF-5 from NWS

[cycloneye]

Crazy, how do you see things for Monday?

[CrazyC83]

Crazy, how do you see things for Monday?

Similar to today, although I haven't studied in depth. It depends on how much moisture return and instability can get back. Might be more to the east though.

[brunota2003]

I know this doesn't affect rating decisions, but I'm reading the Shawnee tornado actually dropped the water levels in Lake Thunderbird when it crossed over. I don't know how much, but it is at least noticeable (either on equipment or visually).

[apocalypt-flyer]

Only one tornado warning remaining in South East Kansas. A little bit of a breather now. No need for things to pick up overnight and as Crazy said - tomorrow looks to be quite eventful anyways.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this might be the first EF-5 tornado of the year but we will know when the survey is done, its not often you see Gate to gate shear of 220+kts and a noticeable drop in lake level from water getting picked up so this was an upper echelon tornado

[cycloneye]

Here is the graphic with the reports that have occurred on May 19.

[Hurricaneman]

I would even expand the tornado threat on Monday to north Texas if the cap breaks, but right now I don't expect that but I would shift the tornado threat on Monday about 50miles farther east in Oklahoma of where it was today

[brunota2003]

The Shawnee Tornado (unofficial, obviously):

I haven't seen any damage photos (as of right now) indicative of an EF-5. I've seen photos of EF-3 to possibly EF-4 damage, though.

Single wide trailers being destroyed are generally upper EF-2 (expected wind of 127 mph, but Lower/Upper bounds is 110 to 148, so from EF-1 to EF-3).

Double wide trailers being destroyed/blown away is 119 to 154, with an expected of 134 (EF-2 to upper EF-3, expected is upper EF-2).

There was a house, roof was gone, along with some of the walls...113 mph to 153 mph are the bounds, with an expected of 132 mph.

I have seen videos from the air that appeared to be houses with just a few small interior rooms left, which would be 127 mph to 178 mph, with an expected of 152 mph (EF-2 to EF-4, expected is upper EF-3).

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/ef-scale.html

I know that it is early, and not very many images have come out yet, but from what I've seen, appears it was at least upper EF-3. There may be pockets of EF-4+ that haven't been reached yet/I haven't seen...and I do not know how the construction of the houses were.

[Cyclenall]

I think this might be the first EF-5 tornado of the year but we will know when the survey is done, its not often you see Gate to gate shear of 220+kts and a noticeable drop in lake level from water getting picked up so this was an upper echelon tornado

Wow, that sounds crazy!! Too bad I couldn't be at a computer until 9:10 pm tonight. Looks like a alright tornado outbreak with 26 reports but I haven't heard anything really big yet. Yes, 220 knots gtg is EF5 range and would be interesting to find out what effects it had. Every year or two seems to have one of those. Any damage that is significant anywhere?

On radar, there is a lot of severe lines and seems very widespread. Big tornado watch stretch. I don't see very many Sups though, did I miss it?

[cycloneye]

Here are the tracks of the strongest tornadoes in Oklahoma on May 19.



https://fbcdn-sphotos-h-a.akamaihd.net/ ... 1722_n.png

http://www.arcgis.com/apps/OnePane/basi ... d22a77a1be

[cycloneye]

I think this might be the first EF-5 tornado of the year but we will know when the survey is done, its not often you see Gate to gate shear of 220+kts and a noticeable drop in lake level from water getting picked up so this was an upper echelon tornado

Wow, that sounds crazy!! Too bad I couldn't be at a computer until 9:10 pm tonight. Looks like a alright tornado outbreak with 26 reports but I haven't heard anything really big yet. Yes, 220 knots gtg is EF5 range and would be interesting to find out what effects it had. Every year or two seems to have one of those. Any damage that is significant anywhere?

On radar, there is a lot of severe lines and seems very widespread. Big tornado watch stretch. I don't see very many Sups though, did I miss it?

I posted photos and video at Sticky thread

[CrazyC83]

I haven't seen anything supporting EF-5. I agree that EF-3 is likely, with isolated EF-4 damage possible.

[Hurricaneman]

I think this might be the first EF-5 tornado of the year but we will know when the survey is done, its not often you see Gate to gate shear of 220+kts and a noticeable drop in lake level from water getting picked up so this was an upper echelon tornado

Wow, that sounds crazy!! Too bad I couldn't be at a computer until 9:10 pm tonight. Looks like a alright tornado outbreak with 26 reports but I haven't heard anything really big yet. Yes, 220 knots gtg is EF5 range and would be interesting to find out what effects it had. Every year or two seems to have one of those. Any damage that is significant anywhere?

On radar, there is a lot of severe lines and seems very widespread. Big tornado watch stretch. I don't see very many Sups though, did I miss it?

yep, the cells started around 4PM CDT around Wichita and around 6pm CDT around Edmund and was probably a EF-3 Tornado as it crossed through Carney, and of course the big one thats mentioned that flattened a Mobile Home Park near Shawnee and picked up enough water from Lake Thunderbird to noticeably drop the level of the lake and there were signs of ground scour so yep you missed most of the action

[EF-5bigj]

It think it was violent it could have been a EF-5. Although I know they are very careful about giving out that rating.

[Texas Snowman]

Dr. Greg Forbes and Mike Bettes of TWC just reported Oklahoma DPS escorting a couple of medical examiners into the flattened trailer park near Shawnee, OK.

[Hurricaneman]

I haven't seen anything supporting EF-5. I agree that EF-3 is likely, with isolated EF-4 damage possible.

If there is anything above EF4 it would be east of the obliterated Mobile Home Park so maybe you're right, I do have a tendency to base a rating off of the rotation speed and not the damage sometimes, and admittedly thats the wrong thing to do, but the lake level drop is interesting and they shouldn't use that for a higher rating than the damage shows

[brunota2003]

Dr. Greg Forbes and Mike Bettes of TWC just reported Oklahoma DPS escorting a couple of medical examiners into the flattened trailer park near Shawnee, OK.

If anyone decided to stay in those trailers, versus seek shelter in a nearby underground shelter, I doubt they survived. Definitely a grim scene to go into.

[Texas Snowman]

Ironically, it was two years ago - Sunday, May 22, 2011 - that Joplin was hit.

[brunota2003]

It think it was violent it could have been a EF-5. Although I know they are very careful about giving out that rating.

Well, to give EF-5, you need to see:

1. Multiple houses completely leveled, with the concrete slab completely wiped clean (the reason I say multiple is that one or two houses could be within EF-4 damage, but if many houses are like that, then it increases the likelihood of >200 mph winds)

2. The complete destruction of an institutional building (ie, hospital, courthouse, state or federal building, etc), or

3. Significant/permanent structural deformation of a high/mid rise building (respectively).

While the damage is bad, right now from what I have seen, it supports upper EF-3 or lower EF-4.

(Note: This list is not all inclusive, just some examples of what you need to get an EF-5 rating)

[SouthDadeFish]

Reports of ground scoured at that mobile home park:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/tornadoes-hit-kan-okla-injuries-reported-19213075#.UZmRFCvwLGs

Not sure how accurate that report is, but that is often a signal of EF-5 damage. However, I agree with the others that the pictures I saw did not support EF-5 damage. We will find out eventually though.