Early June Development in WCarib or BOC? (Is Invest 91L)

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NDG
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#101 Postby NDG » Tue May 21, 2013 7:40 am

Last night's ECMWF's run shows falling pressures and a weak vorticity in the southern Caribbean to move into the western Caribbean in its long range forecast.

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#102 Postby gatorcane » Tue May 21, 2013 11:59 am

00Z FIM model shows weak low pressure in the Western Caribbean at 240 hours:

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12Z GFS at 384 hours (to be taken with a grain of salt):

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12Z ECMWF at 240 hours shows some weak low pressure across the Southwest Caribbean but nothing more:

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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#103 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 21, 2013 2:57 pm

It looks like eventually things will start consolidating by the end of May and organizing by the first days of June if the Global Hazards update is right. First in EPAC and then SW or Western Caribbean.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... /ghazards/

Dynamical model MJO index forecasts indicate a weak signal during Week-1 which is partly attributed to interference from other tropical subseasonal variability. Beyond Week-1, models indicate renewed organization with the enhanced phase across the Western Hemisphere and Africa.

The Week-1 outlook is based primarily on anomalous convection associated with subseasonal modes of variability and dynamical model forecasts. The suppressed phase of an equatorial Rossby wave favors below average rainfall across the central Indian Ocean, while dynamical model forecasts indicate below average rainfall across the Philippines. Anomalous low-level convergence is expected to result in below average rainfall across western Africa. An atmospheric Kelvin wave elevates the chances for tropical cyclone development across the East Pacific. Convection is expected to increase over
the eastern Pacific and Central America due to the aforementioned Kelvin wave and the expected enhanced phase of the MJO organizing over the Western Hemisphere by the end of Week-1.

The Week-2 outlook is based on the expectation of a renewed organization of the MJO with its enhanced phase across the Western Hemisphere and Africa. Although dynamical MJO index forecasts differ on the exact evolution of the MJO signal, models generally agree on the enhanced phase of the MJO centered over the Western Hemisphere. Below average rainfall is expected to continue across the Philippines and expand east across the western Pacific Ocean. The Indian Ocean, south India, Sri Lanka, and western Africa are expected to become more convectively active which is consistent with MJO precipitation composites. Above average rainfall is likely to persist across the eastern Pacific Ocean, Central America, and shift east into the western Caribbean Sea. Warmer than normal SSTs and enhanced convection maintains elevated chances for tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific Ocean. A large scale ridge predicted over the southern CONUS and Gulf of Mexico during Week-2 is expected to reduce wind shear and provide favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Due to the reduced wind shear in an area of enhanced convection, the development of an early season tropical cyclone is favored for the northwest Caribbean Sea. The GFS model has been consistent in developing a potential tropical cyclone in the northwestern Caribbean Sea in early June.


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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#104 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue May 21, 2013 8:35 pm

The 18zGFS seems a little weird on this run, has a system forming north of Hispaniola at 216 hrs and one system forming near Belieze at 276 hrs and at like 336 hrs combines the energy to make one storm west of Naples at 384. Could this be a case of MJO feedback making phony storms or is there a legit risk of something like this happening
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#105 Postby boca » Tue May 21, 2013 8:49 pm

I think the model is just picking up on lower pressure in the area and just radomly putting a low pressure there because its always after 300 hrs or so
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#106 Postby ROCK » Tue May 21, 2013 11:09 pm

I see the 18Z NAVGEM likes a EPAC solution in the 180hr range. Some of the latest Canadian ensembles following suit.

FYI- NOGAPS looks to have been replace or renamed to NAVGEM.....
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#107 Postby Dean4Storms » Wed May 22, 2013 10:52 am

It's becoming pretty evident that a Tropical Low could take shape in the western Carib. Sea in early June but way too early to speculate the particulars.
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#108 Postby MiamiensisWx » Wed May 22, 2013 2:28 pm

12Z ECMWF shows development beginning in just five days--a rather significant shift by the most credible medium-range model:

Link--144 hours out

There is an area of vorticity and low pressure just north of Panama in five days. It later migrates NW into the Gulf of Honduras by the end of the run.
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#109 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed May 22, 2013 2:32 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF shows development beginning in just five days:

Link--144 hours out



yeah each run of the models have been back and forth with either the east pac or carrib or both.. the monsoon trough will be setup well into the western carrib so could be that eventually both develop. models maybe having a hard time differentiating both that far out.
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#110 Postby wxman57 » Wed May 22, 2013 2:33 pm

MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF shows development beginning in just five days--a rather significant shift by the most credible medium-range model:

Link--144 hours out

There is an area of vorticity and low pressure just north of Panama in five days. It later migrates NW into the Gulf of Honduras by the end of the run.


I wouldn't call that development, and the ECMWF is forecasting 50+ kts of shear over that area at 144hrs. The GFS still has weak development in the NW Caribbean at days 14-16, where it has for weeks. I think we're just seeing the standard bogus long-range predictions of development that we see every year at this time.
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#111 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed May 22, 2013 2:49 pm

wxman57 wrote:
MiamiensisWx wrote:12Z ECMWF shows development beginning in just five days--a rather significant shift by the most credible medium-range model:

Link--144 hours out

There is an area of vorticity and low pressure just north of Panama in five days. It later migrates NW into the Gulf of Honduras by the end of the run.


I wouldn't call that development, and the ECMWF is forecasting 50+ kts of shear over that area at 144hrs. The GFS still has weak development in the NW Caribbean at days 14-16, where it has for weeks. I think we're just seeing the standard bogus long-range predictions of development that we see every year at this time.


Or just plain old MJO feedback aka convective feedback, what could happen in reality is anything from an invest or lowering pressures which is most probable to a named tropical system which is least probable so as of now I think the Euro has it best but that could change as its still mid to long range in the models
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#112 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed May 22, 2013 10:18 pm

I am starting to think that this thread will not come true, something may form near central america, but will get torn apart by shear to the north due to the late April - early May like pattern we have going now, its starting to look like we may have to wait until July for development as the pattern switches to more of a summer pattern
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#113 Postby TropicalAnalystwx13 » Thu May 23, 2013 2:49 pm

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Patience.
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Re:

#114 Postby floridasun78 » Thu May 23, 2013 4:01 pm

TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Patience.

this update twice a week?
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#115 Postby Dean4Storms » Thu May 23, 2013 4:54 pm

12z GFS still spitting out a closed Low east of the Yucatan by the 5th and then takes it northward deepening it toward the Gulf.
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Re: Re:

#116 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 23, 2013 5:53 pm

floridasun78 wrote:
TropicalAnalystwx13 wrote:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/images/gth_full.png

Patience.

this update twice a week?


The Global Hazard updates are out every week.
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Re:

#117 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu May 23, 2013 6:11 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:12z GFS still spitting out a closed Low east of the Yucatan by the 5th and then takes it northward deepening it toward the Gulf.


Mmmmmm that would be nice. Sure could use the rain here in Texas.
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#118 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu May 23, 2013 7:48 pm

The Euro seems to slowly be joining the party, has a broad low at 240 in the NW Caribbean
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#119 Postby ROCK » Thu May 23, 2013 11:17 pm

Nothing in the GOM is going to deepen with still cool ssts.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html
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Re: Late May/Early June Development in Western Caribbean?

#120 Postby NDG » Fri May 24, 2013 6:27 am

Time to start back paddling.
The GFS has not been showing development within a ten day range since it started showing development in its long range forecast weeks ago.
I think the Euro has the best handle on it of nothing but a broad area of low pressure from the monsoon trough visiting the Caribbean and a big surge of moisture to head towards FL.
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